We are here on a weekly basis to provide you with impartial matchup analysis to navigate each week and make informed, data-driven decisions with the latest information at hand. We rely on our game and player matchup analysis dashboards that provide a concise overview of a team’s strengths and weaknesses at every level of the game and produce advantage insights by identifying key mismatches in the trenches, at the skill positions and in the secondary that will have a significant impact on game results across the league each week.
Saturday Injury Updates and Implications to Skill Positions
- Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs will be without All-Pro G Joe Thuney, which is going to be an issue against Baltimore’s fierce pass rush that led the league in sacks and ranks 3rd in QB hits. LB Willie Gay, who would be in charge of spying Lamar Jackson, is listed as questionable – he was a limited participant on Wednesday and Thursday but sat on Friday. He left the Divisional Round matchup against the Bills with a non-contact neck injury, so even if he plays, he runs the risk of reinjury.
- Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens will get both TE Mark Andrews and CB Marlon Humphrey back this week, providing a boost on both sides of the ball against a KC defense that ranks 4th in the league in passing YPG allowed and 2nd YPA and a KC offense that ranks 9th in passing YPG and 7th in passes of 10+ yards.
- San Francisco 49ers: Deebo Samuel will be active after he was limited in practice on Thursday and a full participant on Friday. His status and availability throughout the game will be an item to watch given the deep bone bruise he has on his shoulder.
- Detroit Lions: Detroit will be without G Jonah Jackson and WR Kalif Raymond. Detroit has been excellent in protecting Jared Goff, ranking 5th in the league in sacks allowed, but will face a 49ers’ front that ranks 3rd in QB hits but did not log a sack on Jordan Love in the Divisional Round.
How We Got Here – NFC, AFC Offensive & Defensive Efficiency Trends
- The NFC Championship will feature two offenses that rank in the league’s top 3 in our offensive efficiency metrics that are well-balanced and can move the ball effectively both through the air and on the ground. SF ranks 1st in the league in EPA/play and YPP, 5th in passing YPG, 1st in YPA, 3rd in rushing YPG and YPC and 2nd in runs of 10+ yards, while Detroit ranks 5th in EPA/play, 3rd in YPP, 3rd in passing YPG, 1st in passes of 10+ yards, 7th in rushing YPG and runs of 10+ and 5th in YPC.
- Both defenses have weaknesses that can be exploited in this game, although SF’s defense is less of a liability than Detroit’s. The Lions enter this matchup ranking 24th in defensive efficiency, 28th in YPP, 32nd in passing YPG and passes of 10+ yards, 31st in YPA and 29th in RZ TD %. SF meanwhile enters this matchup ranking 10th in EPA/play, 6th in YPP, but 27th in 3rd down conversion rate.
- KC’s offensive efficiency rating by our metrics is extremely poor and heavily influenced by their turnover woes and offensive penalty yardage assessed (32nd in the league). That said, KC does rank 10th in EPA/play, 9th in series conversion rate, 5th in YPP, 6th in 3rd down conversion rate, 7th in passes of 10+ yards, 6th in YPC and 6th in RZ trips. Baltimore meanwhile has done a better job of taking care of the ball and enters this matchup ranking 7th in EPA/play, 4th in YPP, 2nd in early down success rate, 10th in 3rd down conversion rate, 1st in rushing YPG and runs of 10+ yards. 2nd in YPC, 2nd in RZ trips and 6th in RZ TD %.
- Baltimore’s defense is the most complete unit remaining in this postseason and will be getting Marlon Humphrey back at CB. Baltimore has sacked the opposing QB at least 3 times in 12 of 17 games during the regular season and just held Houston to 213 yards of total offense, 0 RZ trips and 4.5 yards per play. KC’s defense meanwhile has been effective in their own right and enters this matchup ranking 6th in EPA/play, 3rd in YPP, 4th in passing YPG allowed, 2nd in YPA, 7th in passes of 10+ yards, 8th in RZ trips per game and 10th in RZ TD %.
Matchup Breakdowns
- Baltimore enters this game with a rest advantage, having taken care of Houston at home on Saturday. KC played in the late slot on the road in Buffalo and has had a normal week thereafter, but Baltimore has not had to travel since their Christmas Day matchup against San Fran.
- Lamar Jackson has not faced a top 10 passing defense since Week 10 against Cleveland in which he finished 13-23 for 223 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT’s; he also rushed 8 times for 41 yards. Mahomes meanwhile has faced a more strenuous slate of passing defenses since Week 12 – he has faced 5 top 10 passing defenses by YPG allowed (LV 2x, BUF 2x, GB) and is averaging 246 YPG in those matchups.
- Lamar Jackson is averaging 69 rushing YPG in his last 5 games and is now facing KC defense that ranks 23rd in the league in YPC allowed; LB Willie Gay, who is KC’s spy specialist, is questionable and dealing with a neck injury. He left with a non-contact injury early against Buffalo last week; Josh Allen in turn rushed for 72 yards and 2 TD’s on 12 carries in Divisional Round.
- Balitmore’s run defense is their most significant weakness; they just held Houston to 38 total yards on 14 attempts in the divisional round, but in their L9 games, they are allowing opponents to rush for 119 YPG and 4.84 YPC. Isaiah Pacheco is averaging 85 rushing YPG and 16 carries over his L6 games on 5.3 YPC, and most recently ran for 97 yards and a TD on 15 carries against Buffalo in the Divisional Round.
- The most glaring weakness in this matchup on either side of the ball is Detroit’s secondary, which ranks 32nd in passing YPG allowed and passes of 10+ and 31st in YPA. In their L5 games, Detroit has allowed opposing passers that include Nick Mullens (2x), Dak Prescott, Matt Stafford and Baker Mayfield to complete 66% of their passes and throw for 384 YPG with 11 TD’s in total. Brock Purdy struggled last week against a GB secondary that was a borderline top 10 unit, but will have a much more favorable matchup in the NFC Championship against a secondary that’s allowed opposing QB’s to throw for at least 349 yards in each of their L5 games and has been consistently lit up.
- SF ranks 5th in the league in passing YPG and 6th in passes of 10+ yards, while DET is the worst in the league in passing YPG allowed and passes of 10+. Deebo Samuel leads WR’s in YAC per reception, while DET is the 5th worst defense in the league by missed tackles.
- Jared Goff has not played outdoors since Week 13 against Chicago, where he finished 20-35 for 161 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT’s. Detroit will likely seek to establish their presence on the ground against SF to control the line of scrimmage and TOP; the Lions have a two-headed attack in Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery that ranks 7th in the league in rushing YPG and runs of 10+ and 5th in YPC. GB ran for 136 yards on 28 attempts (4.9 YPC) in the Divisional Round against SF and had the 49ers on the ropes late in the game thanks to their ability to control the game flow for portions of the matchup.
- Jared Goff has played just 5 games outdoors in 2023; he is averaging a 65% completion rate with 7 TD’s and 4 INT’s. He has achieved a 70% completion rate indoors with 23 TD’s and 8 INT’s.
Player Props of the Week
Lamar Jackson O66.5 Rushing Yards – FD
- Jackson has cleared this number in 3 of L5 weeks, now facing KC defense that ranks 23rd in the league in YPC allowed. Jackson carried the ball 11 times for 100 yards and 2 TD’s in the Divisional Round against Houston’s top 5 run defense, and is averaging 93 rushing YPG in 5 career playoff starts.
- LB Willie Gay is questionable in this matchup after suffering a neck injury; his ability to keep Lamar in check and/or remain in the game (if he can go) is a significant item to watch. Gay left the game early against Buffalo in the Divisional Round, and Josh Allen rushed for 72 yards, 2 TD’s on 12 carries.
- KC ranks 4th in passing YPG allowed, 2nd in YPA and 7th in passes of 10+ yards and has the personnel to slow the Ravens passing attack down. This is the AFC Championship Game and not a Week 7 matchup in which availability the rest of the way is a factor in the back of Lamar’s mind. Jackson is going to do whatever it takes one win away from his first Super Bowl appearance and should use his legs against a KC defense that is going to be handicapped if Willie Gay is not available or at 100%. Expect Lamar to use his legs against KC’s defense in this matchup and take O66.5 rushing yards.
Brock Purdy O275.5 Passing Yards – FD
- Brock Purdy has an excellent matchup against Detroit’s secondary, which ranks 32nd in passing YPG allowed and passes of 10+ and 31st in YPA. In their L5 games, Detroit has allowed opposing passers that include Nick Mullens (2x), Dak Prescott, Matt Stafford and Baker Mayfield to complete 66% of their passes and throw for 384 YPG with 11 TD’s in total.
- Against bottom 10 secondaries, Brock Purdy is averaging 308 passing YPG in 2023. Deebo will be a full go in this matchup, which means Detroit will have their hands full against a SF offense that includes George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey out of the backfield.
- Detroit’s defense ranks 2nd in rushing YPG allowed, 3rd in YPC and 6th in runs of 10+. SF’s offensive scheme is predicated on using play action to open up passing lanes, but if Detroit can stifle the 49ers in the running game, SF will need to open things up through the air. Take Purdy O275.5 passing yards.
Under of the Week
Ravens / Chiefs UNDER 44.5
- This matchup will feature two of the most complete defenses in football. Baltimore’s unit is the league’s best, ranking 1st in defensive efficiency and EPA/play, 2nd in YPP allowed, 3rd in early down success rate, 6th in 3rd down conversion rate, 6th in passing YPG allowed, 1st in YPA, 4th in passes of 10+, 2nd in RZ TD %, 3rd in RZ trips per game, 1st in sacks and 3rd in QB hits. KC meanwhile ranks 4th in defensive efficiency, 6th in EPA/play, 7th in series conversion rate, 3rd in YPP allowed, 8th in 3rd down conversion rate, 4th in passing YPG, 2nd in YPA, 7th in passes of 10+, 8th in RZ trips allowed, 10th in RZ TD %, 3rd in sacks and 5th in QB hits.
- KC has faced Miami and Buffalo in their L2 weeks; Miami’s defense progressed over the 2nd half of the season with the addition of Jalen Ramsey at CB, but they were down several starters in the secondary and two of their best pass rushers in Jalen Phillips and Bradley Chubb. Buffalo meanwhile had one of the league’s best defenses, but were also missing several key starters at LB and in the secondary. Baltimore is fully healthy and just held Houston to 213 yards of total offense, 0 RZ trips and 4.5 yards per play in the Divisional Round. They also limited SF and MIA, two of the league’s highest powered offenses, to just 19 points a piece in Week 16 and 17.
- Baltimore has the league’s top pass rush and will have an opportunity to generate pressure up the middle given that All-Pro G Joe Thuney has been ruled OUT on KC’s OL. Baltimore has sacked the opposing QB at least 3 times in 12 of 17 games during the regular season.
- KC is 5-1 to the UNDER in their L6 and 13-6 to the UNDER on the season.
- This matchup will feature two of the highest profile QB’s in the league, but expect points to come at a premium given the quality of both defenses, particularly in defending the pass. KC ranks 23rd in the league in YPC allowed while Baltimore ranks 24th; both offenses will likely lean on the running game to sustain offense, which will likely lead to longer and more deliberate drives than we are used to seeing from both of these offenses. Take the UNDER 44.5 in this one.
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