We are here on a weekly basis to provide you with impartial matchup analysis to navigate each week and make informed, data-driven decisions with the latest information at hand. We rely on our game and player matchup analysis dashboards that provide a concise overview of a team’s strengths and weaknesses at every level of the game and produce advantage insights by identifying key mismatches in the trenches, at the skill positions and in the secondary that will have a significant impact on game results across the league each week.
Saturday Injury Updates and Implications to Skill Positions
- Houston Texans: The Texans lost WR Noah Brown to the IR after he suffered an injury during the Wild Card matchup against the Browns. Houston is now down Brown and Tank Dell heading into a matchup against the Ravens’ secondary that ranks 8th in passing YPG, 1st in YPA and 4th in passes of 10+ yards.
- Baltimore Ravens: Baltimore is well-rested off back-to-back byes, but will be without CB Marlon Humphrey and TE Mark Andrews. Stroud got help from Houston’s defense with two pick-6’s last week, but he was an efficient 16-21 for 274 yards and 3 TD’s in a game that got out of hand by the 4th quarter.
- Green Bay Packers: CB Jaire Alexander was questionable heading into last week’s game against Dallas, but suited up and made an impact by logging an INT. He also left the game in the 3rd quarter after re-aggravating his ankle injury. Alexander DNP on Wednesday and Thursday, which is not a good sign. GB will need all hands on deck against a 49ers’ offense that ranks 1st in EPA/play, YPP, early down success rate and YPA and 4th in passing YPG.
- Detroit Lions: TE Sam LaPorta is questionable but said he is feeling better after hyperextending his knee in Week 18. LaPorta could be in for a big day against a TB defense that ranks 30th in receiving yards allowed to TE’s on the year.
- Buffalo Bills: The Bills are banged up at LB and in the secondary – CB Christian Benford and S Taylor Rapp are both out, while LB Terrel Bernard and CB’s Rasul Douglas and Taron Johnson are both listed as questionable. Bernard DNP this week, while Rasul Douglas was a full participant on Friday. Buffalo will also be without WR Gabe Davis, who is inconsistent from a production standpoint but does get a ton of snaps for Buffalo.
How We Got Here – NFC, AFC Offensive & Defensive Efficiency Trends
- SF, DET and GB head into the NFC Divisional Round with three of the top 6 most efficient offenses in football, underlining the point that offense is critical in today’s NFL to postseason success. TB’s offense is one-dimensional with a run game that ranks 31st in rushing YPG, 32nd in YPC and 27th in runs of 10+, which magnifies the importance of Baker Mayfield in TB’s matchup with a Detroit secondary that ranks 32nd in the league in passing YPG allowed.
- SF’s defensive efficiency ranking dipped in Week 18 in part due to the fact that they rested a number of starters on the defensive side of the ball. GB and DET have issues on the defensive side of the ball that could be significant liabilities in this round of the postseason, particularly for the Packers, who face the most efficient offense in football on the road in SF.
- Buffalo has the highest rated offense on the AFC side of the bracket by our efficiency ratings, while KC’s ratings are negatively influenced by their turnover issues (23rd in TO’s per game) and offensive penalty yardage (32nd in the league). Houston’s offensive efficiency suffered over the month of December with the absence of CJ Stroud, who had this unit in the top 10 over the middle 2 months of the season in his rookie campaign.
- KC and BAL are equipped with the two most efficient defenses remaining on either side of the postseason bracket, while Buffalo is battling injuries at LB and in the secondary. Houston’s secondary has been a liability this season and is now matching up against a Balitmore offense that is averaging 34 PPG in their L10 game, is 7-3 to the OVER in that stretch, and dropped 56 points on Miami and 33 points on SF in their last two weeks of live action
360-Degree View of Every Contender
Mismatches that Will Impact Game Results
- Lamar Jackson is not the most prolific passer in the league and is known moreso for his escapability and ability to make plays off-script, but he has an excellent matchup against a Houston secondary that ranks 26th in passing YPG and YPA and 24th in passes of 10+ yards. Jackson is averaging 250 YPG over the L5 weeks with 14 TD’s and 2 INT’s in that stretch, and will matchup up against a Houston secondary that just allowed Joe Flacco to throw for 307 yards, 1 TD but 2 critical INT’s on 34-46 passing.
- Baltimore’s offense is predicated on running the football, but they’ll be facing a Houston defense that ranks 5th in the league in rushing YPG and 1st in YPC allowed, so Lamar will likely need to open things up in the passing game to get things moving. Houston ranks 27th in the league in TE receiving yards allowed. Without the return of Mark Andrews, this positions Isaiah Likely for a big day – he is averaging 54 receiving YPG with 5 TD’s in 6 weeks without Andrews in the lineup.
- SF has the advantage of rest and the most potent offense in the league heading into a Divisional Round matchup against Green Bay. SF ranks 1st in the league in each of the following categories: offensive efficiency, EPA/play, series conversion rate, YPP, early down success rate, YPA, runs of 10+ yards and RZ TD %. SF will be facing a GB defense that’s been a liability this season, ranking 29th in defensive efficiency, 28th in series conversion rate, 25th in early down success rate, 28th in 3rd down conversion rate, 28th in rushing YPG, 27th in runs of 10+ yards and 26th in RZ trips allowed.
- Christian McCaffrey strained his calf in Week 17, but has had two weeks to rest – he will have an opportunity to go off against a GB defense that is among the league’s 4 worst run defenses and is susceptible to allowing chunk plays in the running game. McCaffrey leads the league in runs of 10+ yards with 44 – the 2nd and 3rd ranked rushers are James Cook (35 runs of 10+) and James Conner (31 runs of 10+) – and ranks 3rd in runs of 10+, while GB ranks 28th in the league in runs of 20+ allowed. McCaffrey is averaging 17 rushes and 101 rushing YPG over the L8 weeks.
- Detroit will host another playoff game in the dome with a high-powered offense that ranks 6th in EPA/play, 3rd in YPP, 4th in passing YPG and YPA and 3rd in passes of 10+ yards. They will match up against a TB defense that ranks 24th in EPA/play, 28th in passing YPG, 25th in YPA and 31st in passes of 10+ yards. Jared Goff will have an opportunity to move the ball in chunks through the air against a TB defense that allows 277 passing YPG.
- On the opposite side of this matchup, Baker Mayfield and TB’s offense will head to Detroit with a juicy matchup against a Detroit secondary that ranks 32nd in the league in passing YPG allowed (274 per game), 31st in YPA and 32nd in passes of 10+ yards. Mayfield is averaging 289 passing YPG with 11 TD’s in his L5 starts and most recently carved Philly’s 31st ranked secondary up for 337 yards and 3 TD’s in the WC round, while Detroit allowed Stafford to finish 25-36 for 367 yards and 2 TD’s at home last week.
- TB and Detroit are both excellent in defending the run – TB ranks 4th in rushing YPG and YPC and 3rd in runs of 10+, while DET ranks 2nd in rushing YPG and 3rd in YPC and runs of 10+, which further supports a game script in which both offenses are heavily reliant on the passing game to manufacture offense.
Player Props of the Week
Christian McCaffrey OVER 90.5 Rushing Yards – FD
- Christian McCaffrey has cleared this number in 6 of his L8 starts and now has an excellent matchup with a GB defense that ranks 28th in rushing YPG allowed, 27th in runs of 10+. McCaffrey is the feature back in an SF offensive attack that ranks 3rd in rushing YPG, 2nd in YPC and 1st in runs of 10+
- McCaffrey leads the league in runs of 10+ yards with 44 – the 2nd and 3rd ranked rushers are James Cook (35 runs of 10+) and James Conner (31 runs of 10+) – and ranks 3rd in runs of 10+, while GB ranks 28th in the league in runs of 20+ allowed. McCaffrey is averaging 17 rushes and 101 rushing YPG over the L8 weeks and has now rested for the L2 weeks.
- Green Bay faced some inefficient rushing attacks over the last month of the season that include TB, MIN and GB, but in a 5-week stretch from mid-November to early December in which GB faced the Steelers, Chargers, Lions, Chiefs and Giants, the Packers allowed 170 rushing YPG and 5.7 YPC. McCaffrey should have plenty of opportunities to break some runs open against a defense that has consistently struggled to defend the run. Take McCaffrey O90.5 rushing yards.
Baker Mayfield Mayfield OVER 260.5 Passing Yards – FD
- This number steamed up from O/U 243.5 at the open this week, but Mayfield has still cleared 260.5 passing yards in 4 of his L5 starts and most recently threw for 337 yards and 3 TD’s against the Eagles at home, now facing a DET secondary that ranks 32nd in passing YPG and passes of 10+ yds and 31st in YPA.
- Detroit’s secondary is their most significant liability. In Weeks 16 and 18, Nick Mullens finished 22-36 for 411 yards and 2 TD’s and 30-44 for 396 yard and 2 TD’s. In Week 17 against Detroit, Dak Prescott finished 26-38, 396 yards, 2 TD’s, while Matt Stafford threw for 367 yards and 2 TD’s on 25-36 passing in the Wild Card round.
- The Lions rank 30th in the league in WR yds allowed and now facing Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. TB’s rushing attack is non-existent, ranking 31st in rushing YPG, 32nd in YPC and 27th in runs of 10+, now with a less than optimal matchup against a Lions’ run defense that ranks 2nd in rushing YPG and 3rd in both YPC and runs of 10+ yards. If the Bucs are competitive in this game, it will be because Mayfield has success finding Evans, Godwin and company through the air. Take Mayfield O260.5 passing yards.
Over of the Week
Ravens / Texans OVER 43.5 – FD
- This matchup will feature two potent offenses – Baltimore ranks 9th in EPA/play, 8th in series conversion rate, 4th in YPP, 2nd in early down success rate, 8th in 3rd down conversion rate, 5th in YPA, 1st in rushing YPG, 4th in YPC and runs of 10+, 2nd in RZ trips and 6th in RZ TD %. Houston’s offense grades above average but not in the elite category, but remember that CJ Stroud missed an extended period of time in December – prior to his injury, Houston ranked in the top 10 in our offensive efficiency ratings from Week 6 through Week 14. Against a top 5 Browns defense by EPA/play in the Wild Card round, Houston posted 356 yards, finished 2-3 in the RZ and scored 31 points on offense. CJ Stroud finished 16-21 for 274 yards and 3 TD’s against a Browns secondary that finished the regular season ranking 1st in passing YPG allowed
- Baltimore’s offense has been extremely explosive with an excellent matchup against the most suspect secondary remaining in the postseason – HOU ranks 26th in passing YPG, YPA and 24th in passes of 10+ yards allowed, while Lamar leads a Baltimore passing attack that ranks 5th in YPA.
- BAL is averaging 34 PPG and 404 YPG in their L10 games and is 7-3 to the OVER in that stretch – their offense dropped 56 points / 491 yards on Miami and 33 points / 343 yards on SF in their last two weeks of live action, now facing a Houston secondary that is a liability on the back end.
- Weather going to be a factor in this one with ~15mph winds in the forecast, but there is no precipitation in the forecast in Baltimore this afternoon. Take the OVER 43.5 in this one.
Head over to our Dashboard section of the site to comb through game matchup dashboards for every game on the board in the Divisional Round Weekend and browse our Player Matchup Analysis dashboards to target the player prop markets.
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