Around the NFL: Week 11 Preview

We are here on a weekly basis to provide you with impartial matchup analysis to navigate each week and make informed, data-driven decisions with the latest information at hand. We rely on our game and player matchup analysis dashboards that provide a concise overview of a team’s strengths and weaknesses at every level of the game and produce advantage insights by identifying key mismatches in the trenches, at the skill positions and in the secondary that will have a significant impact on game results across the league each week.

Mismatches that Will Impact Game Results in Week 11

• Miami is off the bye with their highly explosive offense slated to take on a Raiders defense that is not particularly well equipped to slow them down on the road. Miami ranks 2nd in offensive efficiency, 1st in YPP, 2nd in rushing YPG, 3rd in runs of 10+ yards and 1st in RZ TD %. They will be facing a Raiders’ defense that ranks 24th in defensive efficiency, 26th in series conversion rate, 30th in rushing YPG allowed, YPC and runs of 10+ and 25th in RZ TD %. Miami will be getting De’Von Achane, who is averaging 12.1 YPC on the season and leads the league in explosive rush rate and runs of 20+ yards, back in the mix at the right time off the bye.
• Cleveland just lost Deshaun Watson for the season to a shoulder injury, which means it will be Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s opportunity to step back into the starting QB role on Sunday against Pittsburgh. It was natural to think that Cleveland’s rushing attack would suffer after Nick Chubb went down with a season-ending injury against PIT in Week 2, but the Browns through 10 weeks rank 3rd in the league in rushing YPG and 5th in runs of 10+ yards with an excellent matchup against a Pittsburgh run defense that ranks 24th in rushing YPG and YPC allowed. Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt combined for 139 yards on 27 carries last week against Baltimore’s 11th ranked rushing defense and should have significant opportunities to get touches and move the ball on the ground.
• Pittsburgh’s defense leads the league in turnovers forced, while Cleveland ranks 26th in the league on offense in turnovers lost. Pittsburgh’s defense could create some offense from defense if they can generate takeaways and give Pickett and company a short field or two. That said, Kenny Pickett is leading a passing attack that ranks 30th in passing YPG, 26th in YPA and 29th in passes of 10+ allowed, facing a Cleveland secondary that leads the league in passing YPG allowed (173 per game), 6th in YPA and 1st in passes of 10+ yards.
• Tampa Bay’s rushing attack has been one of the worst in the league in 2023, ranking 31st in rushing YPG, 32nd in YPC and 28th in runs of 10+ yards. They’ll be facing a 49ers run defense that ranks 4th in rushing YPG and 7th in runs of 10+ yards that just held Travis Etienne to 35 yards on 9 carries and a Jags offense to just 59 rushing yards in total in Week 10.
• On the opposite side of the ball, SF ranks 5th in the league in 3rd down conversion rate, facing a Bucs’ defense that ranks dead last in the league in 3rd down conversion rate. The 49ers should have opportunities to extend drives and move the ball through the air against a Bucs’ secondary that ranks 31st in passing YPG allowed, 26th in YPA and 29th in passes of 10+ yards that was torched by CJ Stroud for 470 yards and 5 TD’s in Week 9.
• Sam Howell has demonstrated willingness to push the ball down the field in his first season as Washington’s starter, leading a Commanders’ passing attack that ranks 6th in passing YPG and 2nd in passes of 10+ yards – they’ll match up with a Giants’ secondary that ranks 30th in YPA and 27th in passes of 10+ yards allowed that just allowed Dak to throw for 404 yards and 4 TD’s on the road in Week 10.
• Jared Goff continues to move the ball extremely efficiently through the air, leading a Lions’ offense that ranks 8th in the league in offensive efficiency, 3rd in YPP, 5th in passing YPG and 7th in passes of 10+ yards. Detroit will be facing a Chicago defense that ranks 31st in defensive efficiency and EPA/play, 30th in 3rd down conversion rate and 25th in passes of 10+ yards allowed. Detroit’s OL has been excellent in pass protection, ranking 4th in sacks allowed, and will be facing a Chicago front 7 that ranks 32nd in the league in sacks and 27th in QB hits per game.
• Josh Allen and the Bills have been reckless with the football all season and rank 32nd in the league in turnovers per game – they will be facing a Jets’ defense in Week 11 that ranks 5th in the league in turnovers forced per game that sacked Josh Allen 5 times in Week 1, picked him off 3 times and forced a fumble.
• Dallas’ defense has beat up on bad offenses in 2023, and has an excellent matchup in Week 11 on the road against a Carolina offense that cannot protect the quarterback or get any separation from their skill players in the passing game. Dallas ranks 3rd in the league in EPA/play, 4th in YPP allowed, 2nd in 3rd down conversion rate and passing YPG allowed and 3rd in passes of 10+ yards allowed, facing a Carolina offense that ranks 30th in EPA/play, 31st in YPP, 31st in YPA, 25th in passes of 10+ yards and that cannot protect the quarterback, ranking 28th in sacks allowed and 29th in QB hits allowed.
• KC naturally has one of the best passing offenses in the league given that they have Pat Mahomes at QB, ranking 7th in passing YPG, 9th in YPA and 8th in passes of 10+ yards; they’ll be facing a Philly secondary that has been their weak link on defense all season and ranks 30th in passing YPG and 32nd in passes of 10+ yards. Sam Howell (39-52, 397 yards, 4 TD’s) and Dak Prescott (29-44, 374 yards, 3 TD’s) have had significant success against this secondary in Weeks 8 and 9, and there’s every indication that Mahomes will have an opportunity to do the same behind an OL that ranks 2nd in sacks allowed on the season. KC also ranks 4th in 3rd down conversion rate, matching up against a Philly defense that has struggled to get off the field on the money down and ranks 23rd in 3rd down conversion rate.

Matchups in the Trenches

• KC leads the league in sacks allowed, facing a Philly pass rush that ranks 5th in the league in sacks on the season. Philly’s ability to get to Mahomes will be a key determinant in this game, because if they can’t, their secondary has not demonstrated a strong ability to defend the passing game if they cannot, as they rank 30th in passing YPG and 32nd in passes of 10+ yards.
• Detroit’s OL has been excellent in protecting Jared Goff, ranking 6th in the league in sacks allowed. They will be facing the worst pass rush in the league in Chicago that has just 13 sacks through 10 weeks. If Goff has time in the pocket, he’ll be facing a Chicago secondary that ranks 22nd in passing YPG allowed (256 per game) and 25th in passes of 10+ yards allowed. Goff will be at home in Detroit’s dome and could be in line for a big week against a limited pass rush.
• Seattle has corrected their OL issues that have plagued them over the trailing 2-3 years, ranking 9th in sacks allowed, facing a Rams’ DL that ranks 25th in sacks on the season. Geno Smith has been sacked more than twice in a game just two times in 2023; the Rams held Seattle to just 180 yards of offense, but opponents are averaging 375 on average over the L5 games.
• The Jets’ OL has been one of the worst units in the league in 2023, ranking 30th in sacks allowed and now tasked with blocking a Buffalo DL that ranks 2nd in the league in sacks on the season. Zach Wilson has been sacked at least four times in four of the L5 games.

Red Zone Matchup Analysis

• Philly ranks 4th in the league in RZ trips on offense but ranks just 13th in RZ TD %. They’ll be facing a KC defense that has improved significantly all around in 2023 relative to their performances over the last two to three seasons that ranks 4th in RZ trips allowed but 17th in RZ TD %.
• CJ Stroud and the Houston offense have been one of the more surprising storylines in 2023, ranking 11th in the league in RZ trips; they’ll face a Cardinals’ defense that ranks 32nd in the league in RZ trips allowed and 22nd in RZ TD %.
• Tampa’s offense ranks just 26th in the league in RZ trips on the season and will now deal with a SF defense in Week 11 that ranks 1st in the league in RZ trips allowed. JAX amassed just 221 yards of offense and finished 0-2 on RZ trips in Week 10 against SF, who was fresh off their bye.
• Carolina lacks explosiveness at skill positions and an offensive line that can protect Bryce Young on the offensive side of the ball. They rank 28th in the league in RZ trips in 2023 and will face a Dallas defense that ranks 4th in the league in RZ trips allowed. Dallas has demonstrated a tendency to throttle body inferior offensive opponents, and this could be the case again in Week 11 against a Carolina offense that does not have the speed or talent to compete with Dallas head to head when their offense is on the field.
• The Rams rank just 28th in the league in RZ trips on the season and will face a Seattle defense that ranks 3rd in the league in RZ trips allowed, largely thanks to their pass rush that ranks 4th in the league in sacks per game and 9th in QB hits.
• Pittsburgh’s offense ranks 32nd in the league in RZ trips per game, underlining their struggles to sustain offense all season long. Pittsburgh has managed just 18 RZ trips through 10 weeks in 2023; the league average is 32 RZ trips, while Baltimore leads the league in RZ trips with 42. Cleveland’s defense has been excellent in 2023 and leads the league in RZ trips allowed per game, though they do rank 27th in RZ TD % when their opponents do get there.

Player Prop of the Week

Brock Purdy O258.5 Passing Yards – DKNG

• Brock Purdy is averaging this number on the season in passing YPG, but will be facing a TB secondary that has allowed Jalen Hurts (23-38, 277 yards), Jared Goff (30-44, 353 yards), Josh Allen (31-40, 324 yards) and CJ Stroud (30-42, 470 yards) to have significant success over the L7 weeks and ranks 31st in passing YPG (285.3 per game), 26th in YPA and 29th in passes of 10+ yards.
• Purdy is by no means a passer in the same category as Hurts, Goff, Allen or even Stroud at this point, but he has cleared this number in five of his L7 games and in each of the L3, including a 296-yard performance against a Jacksonville secondary that ranks 29th in passing YPG allowed in a game where Jacksonville led 34-3 early in the 4th quarter.
• Opposing QB’s are averaging 319 passing YPG against this TB secondary over the L5 weeks, which includes Stroud’s 470-yard performance. Even when you exclude Stroud’s performance, opposing QB’s are averaging 285 passing YPG in the other four games.
• TB’s defense is excellent against the running game, ranking 5th in rushing YPG, 4th in YPC and 3rd in runs of 10+ yards allowed, which oftentimes translates to a situation in which opposing offenses are forced to disproportionately turn to the passing game to move the ball on offense.
• We like this spot for Purdy OVER 258.5 passing yards to outperform his season average against a TB secondary that is one of the three worst in the league in a situation where SF will likely need the passing game to move the chains considering TB’s ability to slow down opposing running games.

OVERS OF THE WEEK

Chiefs / Eagles OVER 45.5

• This matchup will feature two of the most explosive and efficient offenses in the league on MNF; Philly ranks 3rd in our offensive efficiency ratings, 4th in EPA/play, 4th in series conversion rate, 6th in early down success rate, 1st in 3rd down conversion rate, 9th in passing YPG, 8th in rushing YPG and 3rd in RZ trips per game. KC meanwhile ranks 8th in EPA/play, 7th in series conversion rate, 5th in YPP, 4th in 3rd down conversion rate, 7th in passing YPG, 8th in passes of 10+ yards, 6th in RZ trips per game and 2nd in sacks allowed.
• Philly’s defense has been extremely susceptible in the passing game with a secondary that ranks 30th in passing YPG allowed and 32nd in passes of 10+ yards allowed. They also rank 26th in defensive efficiency, 28th in series conversion rate and 26th in RZ TD % allowed, with an extremely sub-optimal matchup against Pat Mahomes and this Chiefs offense. Philly just allowed Dallas to post 406 yards in total in Week 9 in a game where Dak threw for 374 yards and 3 TD’s and Dallas was stopped at the goal line on two separate occasions.
• These offenses rank 3rd and 7th in RZ trips per game, while Philly ranks has struggled to keep opponents out of the end zone when they reach the RZ and just lost LB Nakobe Dean to the IR.
• Both teams are off the bye and should be entering this game healthy, particularly Jalen Hurts, who has been dealing with a bone bruise in this knee for the last month plus. Weather will likely not be a factor, as there is some rain in the forecast but winds of just 7-8 MPH.
• OVER 45.5 is a great number considering the quality of offenses on the field in this one and the fact that both coaching staffs have had two weeks to prepare for this MNF showdown.

Browns / Steelers OVER 33

• Many will scoff at this which is what is the lowest total of the 2023 season, but we are going OVER despite the news of Deshaun Watson’s season-ending injury that moved this line from 36 down to 33 on Wednesday. That said, Cleveland just posted 33 points of offense, finished 8-16 on 3rd down and posted 373 yards of total offense against Baltimore, whose defense ranks 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency and 1st in EPA/play allowed heading into Week 11. Dorian Thompson-Robinson will get his second start of his career at home in this spot and will have a full week to prepare for this Pittsburgh defense.
• On Pittsburgh’s side of the ball, they evoke feelings of the Steel Curtain when you think about TJ Watt, Cam Heyward, etc., but they’ve been suspect this season – they rank 27th in YPP allowed, 27th in passing YPG, 23rd in YPA, 28th in passes of 10+ yards allowed, 24th in rushing YPG and 24th in YPC. Many thought that Cleveland’s run game would suffer with the loss of Nick Chubb in Week 2, but they rank 3rd in the league in rushing YPG (148 per game ) and 5th in runs of 10+ yards with a great matchup against a Pittsburgh defense that’s struggled to stop the run with a matchup against Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt, who combined for 139 yards on just 27 carries in Week 10 against Baltimore’s top 5 defense in Week 10.
• Pittsburgh’s redeeming quality on defense is their ability to force turnovers – they rank 1st in the league in TO’s forced in 2023, and will be facing a Cleveland offense that ranks 26th in turnovers lost. Pittsburgh’s offense has been extremely lackluster all season, but if their defense can force turnovers against a rookie QB and give this offense short fields, they will have opportunities to put points on the board.
• This is a model play that has hit historically at a 65% clip, and we see value in taking the OVER on an uncharacteristically low number of 33.

Head over to our Dashboard section of the site to comb through game matchup dashboards for every game on the board in Week 11, and browse our Player Matchup Analysis dashboards to optimize your DFS / FF lineups and target the player prop markets.

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