Around the NFL: Week 12 Recap

Concise game recaps and implications from Week 12 that provide you with information that matters to attack Week 13. Head over to our game matchup dashboards to understand each team’s strengths and weaknesses as teams as every team continues to reveal who they are in 2023. Once you digest takeaways from the Week 12, head over to our dashboard section to break down the Week 13 board.

Packers / Lions

  • The Lions spotted the Packers an early 20-6 lead by allowing TD’s on their first two drives of the game and losing a strip sack fumble returned for a TD all in the first quarter. In the end the Lions outgained the Packers 464 – 377 but could not overcome a 23-6 halftime deficit; Jordan Love played potentially his best game of the season, finishing 22-32 for 268 yards and 3 TD’s with 0 TO’s and leading the Packers to 3-4 in the RZ. Goff threw for 332 yards and 2 TD’s on 29-44 passing, while Detroit ran for 140 yards on the ground behind David Montgomery (15 carries, 71 yards) and Jamyr Gibbs (11 carries, 54 yards). Detroit is 3-1 to the OVER in their L4 and heads to NO as a 4-point favorite against the reeling Saints; GB is 3-1 ATS in their L4 after losing four games in a row and dropping to 2-5 in late October; they host the Chiefs as 6.5-point dogs on SNF.

Cowboys / Commanders

  • The Commanders hung in this game until late in the 3rd quarter. Dallas post 25 points in the 4th quarter to take their lead from 20-10 to 45-10, capped off by a pick-6 with under 5 minutes left in regulation. Dallas outgained Washington 431-376, sacked Sam Howell 4 times and held the Commanders to just two RZ trips, while Dak threw for 331 yards and 4 TD’s on 22-32 passing and lead the Cowboys to 3-3 on RZ trips. Dallas is a 9-point favorite at home on TNF against the Seahawks, 5-1 ATS in their L6 and 6-2 to the OVER in their L8. The Commanders are now 2-4 ATS in their L6 and 4-1 to the OVER in their L5 and will host the Dolphins as 9.5-point favorites.

Seahawks / 49ers

  • SF dominated this game from start to finish, outgaining Seattle 377 – 220 and taking a 24-3 lead into halftime on the road on Thanksgiving night. The 49ers ran for 169 yards on the ground behind Christian McCaffrey (19 carries, 114 yards, 2 TD’s) and finished 3-4 on RZ trips; Geno Smith threw for just 180 yards on 18-27 passing, while the Seahawks were without Kenneth Walker III in the running game and managed just 88 total yards on the ground against an SF run defense that ranks 2nd in rushing YPG allowed and 5th in runs of 10+ yards. The 49ers are just 2-4 ATS in their L6 but head to Philly as 3-point road favorites in an NFC Championship matchup, while the Seahawks have lost two straight and are 2-5 ATS in their L7 as they head to Dallas as 9-point dogs on TNF.

Jets / Dolphins

  • The Dolphins outgained the Jets 395 – 159 and cruised to a 34-13 victory that may have been competitive for longer had Tim Boyle not thrown an INT on a Hail Mary that turned into a pick 6 on the final play of the 1st half. Miami ran for 167 yards on the ground against a Jets’ defense that now ranks 31st in the league in rushing YPG allowed (141 on average) behind a strong performance from Raheem Mostert (20 carries, 94 yards, 2 TDs). Tua threw for 243 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT’s on 21-30 passing; 17 of his completions and 20 targets were to Jaylen Waddle (8 receptions, 114 yards) and Tyreek Hill (9 receptions, 102 yards, 1 TD). Tim Boyle was sacked seven times, while the Jets ran for just 29 yards in total on the ground. The Dolphins are 9.5-point favorites against the Commanders, who were just torched for 331 yards passing against Dallas and rank 30th in the league in passing YPG allowed, while the Jets are 3-point dogs at home against the Falcons, who rank 4th in the league in rushing YPG and 3rd in runs of 10+ yards. The Jets are 0-5 ATS and 5-1 to the UNDER in their L5.

Eagles / Bills

  • The Eagles pulled out an improbable win in one of the best games of 2023 despite being outgained by the Bills by a margin of 505 – 378. Josh Allen had a field day on an Eagles’ secondary that now ranks 29th in passing YPG allowed and 30th in passes of 10+ yards allowed, finishing 29-51 for 339 yards, 2 TD’s and an INT in heavy downpour all afternoon. The Bills in total finished a ridiculous 13-22 on 3rd down and 4-5 in the RZ, forced two Philly turnovers and ran for 173 yards and still somehow lost the game, thanks to a ridiculous second half from Jalen Hurts, who lead the Eagles to four TD’s and a FG on their final 6 possessions of the game, including OT, and finished with 5 total TD’s. The Eagles are 8-3 ATS in 2023 and 3-1 to the OVER in their L4 but are 3-point dogs at home against the 49ers, while the Bills drop to 6-6 on the season and 1-7 ATS and 6-2 to the UNDER in their L8.

Falcons / Saints

  • New Orleans outgained Atlanta 444 – 396 but lost 24-15 because they finished 0-5 in the RZ and turned the ball over twice. Atlanta turned both turnovers into 14 total points on a pick 6 and a TD drive following a Taysom Hill fumble inside the Falcons’ 10-yard line. Atlanta ran for 228 yards on the ground behind Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson, while the Saints lost Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed to injuries after placing Michael Thomas on the IR last week. Alvin Kamara ran 15 times for 69 yards and caught another 4 balls for 50 yards (119 yards from scrimmage), and should become an even more focal point of the offense with cluster injuries at the WR position. The Saints are 4-point dogs against Detroit at home and 2-9 ATS on the season, while the Falcons are 3-point favorites on the road against the Jets and 3-1 to the OVER in their L4 after starting the season 6-1 to the UNDER.

Bengals / Steelers

  • The newsletter UNDER cashed in this one, although the Pittsburgh offense showed signs of life as they outgained Cincy 421 – 222. Kenny Pickett had his best game of the season by a wide margin, finishing with 278 yards on 24-33 passing, though the Steelers finished just 1-4 in the RZ. Najee Harris (15 carries, 99 yards) and Jaylen Warren (13 carries, 49 yards) lead a run game that went for 153 yards in total on a Cincy defense that now ranks 29th in rushing YPG and 31st in YPC. Cincy finished just 2-10 on 3rd down and managed just 25 total yards rushing, while Jake Browning was sacked four times and threw an INT in the PIT red zone on Cincy’s first possession of the 2nd half. Cincy heads to Jacksonville as 8.5-point dogs on MNF against the Jags. The Steelers are the AFC’s 5th seed as it currently stands, 5-2 ATS in their L7 and 9-2 to the UNDER in 2023 as they host Arizona as 5.5-point favorites in Week 13.

Titans / Panthers

  • The Titans won this game despite finishing just 2-11 on 3rd down, amassing just 264 yards of total offense and losing the TOP battle 26:11 – 33:49, largely thanks to their defense that forced Carolina to punt three straight times and turn the ball over on downs after scoring a TD on their first drive of the second half to cut the deficit to 17-10. Aside from their TD drive on the first possession of the 2nd half, the Panthers posted just 88 yards of offense on 26 plays in the second half after punting three times and losing a fumble in the first. Carolina is 1-10 ATS on the season and 5-0 to the UNDER in their L5 because their offense lacks speed to create separation, their OL stinks and Bryce Young as a result has no chance to thrive – they head to TB as a 5.5-point dog in Week 13, while the Titans are 1.5-point underdogs at home against Indy; TEN is 8-3 to the UNDER in 2023, thanks also to an offense that lacks explosiveness and an OL that can’t protect the QB.

Colts / Buccaneers

  • Indy outgained Tampa by a margin of 394-298, finished 3-5 in the RZ and ran for 155 yards on the ground against a TB defense that ranks 8th in the league in rushing YPG allowed thanks to strong performances from Jonathan Taylor (15 carries, 91 yards, 2 TDs) and Zack Moss (8 carries, 55 yards), though Taylor will miss time with a thumb injury. Baker Mayfield finished with just 199 yards, 2 TD’s and 1 INT on 20-30 passing against a Colts’ secondary that struggled early in the season but improved as of late. Indy is 4-1 ATS in their L5 and winners of three straight, heading to Tennessee as 1.5-point road favorites. The Bucs are 5.5-point favorites at home against the Panthers, who just fired Frank Reich, and 8-3 to the UNDER in 2023.

Giants / Patriots

  • This was an extremely ugly game of football thanks to two very bad QB’s; NE outgained NYG 283 – 220 but threw 3 INT’s, two from Jones and one from Zappe after Jones was benched once again. NE logged just 136 yards passing but ran for 147 yards on the ground behind a strong performance from Rhamondre Stevenson, who carried the ball 21 times for 98 yards and has run for at least 87 yards in each of the L3 weeks. Jalin Hyatt caught 5 balls for 109 yards on 6 targets from Tommy DeVito. The Giants head into the bye with two straight wins and covers under DeVito, while the Patriots are 6-point underdogs at home against the Chargers and 1-7 ATS in their L8 and 2-9 ATS on the season.

Texans / Jaguars

  • Jacksonville outgained Houston 445 – 352, thanks largely in part to an excellent performance from Trevor Lawrence, who finished 23-38 for 364 yards, a TD and an INT where he was not sacked. CJ Stroud broke 300 yards passing for the 4th straight week, finishing 26-36 for 304 passing yards and 2 TD’s, while Nico Collins caught 7 balls for 104 yards and a TD on 9 targets. The Jags improve to 7-1 ATS in their L8 and will host the Bengals as 7.5-point favorites on MNF, while the Texans are 1-4 ATS in their L5 and will host the Broncos as 3.5-point favorites.

Broncos / Browns

  • The Browns lost Myles Garrett, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Amari Cooper and Jordan Elliott over the course of this game, while the Broncos played mistake free football and ran for 169 yards on the ground against a Browns’ defense that ranks 2nd in the league in EPA/play but just 12th in rushing YPG and 17th in YPC. Cleveland posted a TD on their first drive of the second half, but amassed just 47 yards of offense on 23 plays from there. Denver’s defense has surged after an awful first 6 weeks of the season – since their 31-21 loss to NYJ, the Broncos have held opponents under 22 points in each of the L6 weeks and an average of just 15 PPG; as a result they are 5-1 to the UNDER in that stretch and 4-1 ATS, heading to Houston in Week 13 as a 3.5-point underdog. The Browns are 3.5-point dogs on the road in LA and are 5-2 to the OVER in their L7.

Cardinals / Rams

  • The Rams outgained the Cardinals 457 – 292 in a 37-14 rout in which the Rams finished 4-5 in the RZ and 228 yards rushing against a Cardinals’ defense that now ranks 30th in the league in rushing YPG (141 per game). Matthew Stafford was efficient, finishing 25-33 for 229 yards, 4 TD’s and 1 INT, while Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp were relative non-factors. Kyren Williams ran for 158 yards against the Cardinals in Week 6, missed 5 weeks, and returned to action and ran for 143 yards in Week 12 on 16 carries. The Rams are 3.5-point favorites at home against the Browns, are 5-2 to the UNDER and 2-5 ATS in their L7, while the Cardinals are 5.5-point dogs on the road in Pittsburgh.

Raiders / Chiefs

  • KC overcame an early 14-0 deficit against Aidan O’Connell by posting 4 TD’s and 2 FG’s on their final seven possessions of the game and holding the Raiders to just 112 yards of offense in the 2nd half; KC finished 3-4 in the RZ, making the most of their opportunities where it matters, while Mahomes threw for 298 yards and 2 TD’s on 27-34 passing on an above average Raiders’ secondary. Rashee Rice continues to carve out his role in this offense, catching 8 balls for 107 yards and a TD on 10 targets, while Travis Kelce caught 6 balls for 91 yards on 7 targets. The Raiders head to the bye, while the Chiefs are 6.5-point favorites on the road in Green Bay on SNF; KC was 6-0 to the UNDER in their L6 prior to this game, which went OVER.

Chargers / Ravens

  • On paper in the preseason, this had the makings of one of the best games of the season in primetime, but the Chargers played their sloppy style of football in which they turned the ball over 4 times, punted twice, scored a late touchdown to make things interesting and proceeded to turn the ball over on downs on their final two drives of the game. Baltimore outgained LA 361 – 279 and ran for 197 yards on the ground against, lead by a platoon of Keaton Mitchell, Justice Hill and Gus Edwards. The Chargers are 6-point favorites on the road in NE this weekend though they are just 2-5 ATS in their L7; Baltimore heads into the bye at 9-3 atop the AFC North at 5-2 ATS in their L7.

Vikings / Bears

  • Another primetime under cashes, going way under the total of 43.5; Chicago outgained Minny by a margin of 317 – 242 and forced 4 Josh Dobbs INT’s. The Bears won this game outright despite punting three times, kicking four field goals and turning the ball over twice in this game. Aside from an 8-play, 77-yard TD drive in the second half, the Vikings posted just 84 yards of offense in the second half where they turned the ball over on downs, threw 2 INT’s and punted on a 3 and out. Both teams head into the bye in Week 13, but the Bears are quietly 4-2 ATS in their L6 games.

Made it here? Head over to our game and player matchup dashboards to dissect every matchup and identify the biggest mismatches to attack the betting markets or optimize your DFS and fantasy football lineups in Week 13.