We are here on a weekly basis to provide you with impartial matchup analysis to navigate each week and make informed, data-driven decisions with the latest information at hand. We rely on our game and player matchup analysis dashboards that provide a concise overview of a team’s strengths and weaknesses at every level of the game and produce advantage insights by identifying key mismatches in the trenches, at the skill positions and in the secondary that will have a significant impact on game results across the league each week.
Mismatches that Will Impact Game Results in Week 13
- San Fran has a significant edge on paper on the offensive side of the ball against the Eagles’ defense; SF ranks 5th in offensive efficiency, 1st in EPA/play and series conversion rate, 2nd in YPP, 5th in 3rd down conversion rate, 2nd in RZ trips per game and 6th in RZ TD %. They’ll be facing a Philly defense that ranks 28th in the league in defensive efficiency, 27th in series conversion rate, 30th in 3rd down conversion rate, 29th in passing YPG, 30th in passes of 10+ yards and 28th in RZ TD %.
- Detroit is off a bad loss at home against Green Bay but still has a highly efficient offense that ranks 7th in the league in offensive efficiency, 3rd in YPP and loves to be physical and run the football, ranking 6th in rushing YPG and 3rd in YPC. They’ll be facing a New Orleans defense that ranks 23rd in rushing YPG allowed, 28th in YPC and 29th in runs of 10+ yards allowed that has been shredded in recent weeks – Atlanta went for 228 on the ground behind strong performances from Bijan Robinson (16 carries, 91 yards, 1 TD) and Tyler Allgeier (10 carries, 64 yards), while Minnesota, Chicago and Indy ran for 125 yards, 156 yards and 164 yards respectively in the previous three weeks. The matchup should present significant opportunity for David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs to have an impact on the game.
- Miami ranks 1st in the league in offensive efficiency, 4th in EPA/play, 1st in YPP, 2nd in early down success rate, 2nd in passing YPG, 1st in passes of 10+ yards and 1st in RZ TD % with an excellent matchup against a Commanders defense that ranks 24th in defensive efficiency, 30th in YPP, 30th in passing YPG and YPA and 31st in passes of 10+ yards. Tua and Tyreek should be able to exploit this secondary that has allowed Dak Prescott (22-32, 331 yards, 4 TD’s), Tommy DeVito (18-26, 246 yards, 3 TD’s), Geno Smith (31-47, 369 yards, 2 TD’s) and Jalen Hurts (29-38, 319 yards, 4 TD’s) to dominate through the air over the last month. Miami also ranks 2nd in rushing YPG and 1st in YPC and is slated to have significant success against a Commanders’ defense that ranks 23rd in YPC allowed.
- Atlanta loves to run the football and ranks 4th in the league in rushing YPG and 3rd in runs of 10+ yards off a Week 12 performance in which they ran for 228 yards in total on the ground against the Saints; they’ll be facing a Jets’ defense that ranks 31st in the league in rushing YPG (141 per game).
Matchups in the Trenches
- KC has been excellent in pass protection in 2023 and ranks 1st in the league in sacks allowed with a matchup against a GB pass rush that ranks 21st in sacks on the season. Green Bay is banged up on the defensive side of the ball, with LB De’Vondre Campbell, DL Kenny Clark, LB Rashan Gary and CB Jaire Alexander all listed as questionable on the defensive side of the ball.
- Detroit’s top 5 OL that ranks 5 in total sacks allowed and 4th in sacks allowed per game will be facing a New Orleans pass rush that ranks 30th in sacks per game and 31st in QB hits per game. New Orleans has sacked the opposing QB more than twice just one time in the last 7 weeks. New Orleans ranks 7th in passing YPG and YPA and 9th in passes of 10+ yards on the season and has held Trevor Lawrence (21-30, 217 yards) and CJ Stroud (13-27, 199 yards) in check in recent weeks, but will be missing S Marcus Maye and likely without DE Cameron Jordan, who DNP this week but is questionable.
- Miami lost Jaelan Phillips to an Achilles injury on Black Friday but still heads into Week 13 ranking 3rd in the league in sacks, 2nd in sacks per game and 2nd in QB hits per game. They’ll be facing a Washington OL that ranks 31st in the league in sacks allowed per game and 32nd in QB hits allowed. Miami’s defense has surged from 25th in the league in defensive efficiency in Week 8 to 14th as of now, and should have an opportunity to get after Sam Howell, who was sacked 4 times in Dallas on Thanksgiving – Howell has been sacked at least 4 times in 8 of 11 games this season.
- Indy’s pass rush has been strong this season and ranks 6th in the league in total sacks per game and 8th in QB hits, now facing a Tennessee OL that ranks 28th in sacks allowed per game and 31st in QB hits allowed per game.
- Pittsburgh ranks 11th in the league in sacks on the season and will now be facing an Arizona OL that ranks 26th in sacks allowed and allowed Kyler to be taken down 4 times in Week 12 against the Rams. Murray’s mobility should be tested against TJ Watt and a Steelers’ defense that ranks 4th in defensive efficiency and 8th in EPA/play.
Red Zone Matchup Analysis
- SF ranks 4th in the league in RZ trips on the season and will have an advantageous matchup against a Philly defense that ranks 23rd in RZ trips allowed, 28th in RZ TD %. SF also ranks 6th in RZ TD % on offense and 5th in 3rd down conversion rate, while Philly ranks 30th in 3rd down conversion rate on defense. If Purdy can manage to not injure his elbow on the first drive of the game, SF will have an opportunity to take advantage of Philly when they have the ball. Christian McCaffrey ranks 2nd in the league in both RZ carries and RZ targets by RB.
- KC ranks 7th in the league in RZ trips and will be facing a GB defense that ranks 23rd in RZ trips allowed. GB has injury questions at LB and in the secondary, while Travis Kelce ranks 2nd in the league in RZ receptions per game among all WR’s.
- The Rams’ offense has been inconsistent and ranks 23rd in RZ trips in 2023, facing a Cleveland defense at home that is battered by injuries but does ranks 2nd in RZ trips allowed per game.
- Arizona’s offense has been without Kyler Murray for a significant portion of the season, but does rank 28th in RZ trips per game, going on the road to face a Pittsburgh defense that ranks 7th in RZ trips allowed and 5th in RZ TD %. Kyler will be without Hollywood Brown and Zach Pascal, while TE Trey McBride is questionable.
Player Props of the Week
David Montgomery O61.5 Rushing Yards – FD
- David Montgomery is averaging 81 rushing YPG on the season and is an integral part of a Lions’ rushing attack that ranks 6th in the league in rushing YPG and 3rd in YPC. Montgomery has cleared this this number in 7 of 8 games in which he’s played this season, including each of the L3 that he’s played in since returning from injury.
- The Saints rank 23rd in rushing YPG allowed, 28th in YPC and 29th in runs of 10+ yards allowed. Atlanta went for 228 on the ground behind strong performances from Bijan Robinson (16 carries, 91 yards, 1 TD) and Tyler Allgeier (10 carries, 64 yards), while Minnesota, Chicago and Indy ran for 125 yards, 156 yards and 164 yards respectively in the previous three weeks. Jonathan Taylor (12 carries, 95 yards) and Zack Moss (11 carries, 66 yards) both had success in a similar RB platoon situation that Montgomery and Gibbs have.
- David Montgomery has been one of the most consistent and physical runners in the league this season and will be facing a Saints’ run defense that’s been taken advantage of in recent weeks and ranks in the league’s bottom 10 on the season. Take Warren O62.5 rushing yards.
Tua Tagovailoa O280.5 Passing Yards – FD
- Tua has faced a relatively strong schedule of passing defenses in 2023, as the average rank of the opposing passing defenses he’s faced is 10th in the league.
- In Week 13, he’ll be facing a Washington secondary that ranks 24th in defensive efficiency, 30th in YPP, 30th in passing YPG and YPA and 31st in passes of 10+ yards. Tua and Tyreek should be able to exploit this secondary that has allowed Dak Prescott (22-32, 331 yards, 4 TD’s), Tommy DeVito (18-26, 246 yards, 3 TD’s), Geno Smith (31-47, 369 yards, 2 TD’s) and Jalen Hurts (29-38, 319 yards, 4 TD’s) to dominate through the air over the last month.
- Tua is averaging 289 passing YPG in 2023 and facing a Washington secondary that can be exposed by the speed that Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle bring to the table for a Miami passing attack that ranks 2nd in the league in passing YPG, 2nd in YPA and 1st in passes of 10+ yards.
- This is a premium number for Tua, but he has an excellent matchup against a bottom 3 passing defense and a bet on one of the highest powered passing attacks in the league. Take Tua O280.5 passing yards.
UNDER OF THE WEEK
Jaguars / Bengals UNDER 38.5
- This matchup will feature a Cincy offense that just posted 10 points and 222 yards of total offense against Pittsburgh in Week 12 that will now be facing a Jags’ defense that ranks 3rd in defensive efficiency, 4th in EPA/play, 7th in series conversion rate, 6th in early down success rate and 5th in 3rd down conversion rate.
- The Jags also rank 4th in rushing YPG allowed, while Cincy managed just 25 yards rushing against Pittsburgh with Browning at QB and rank 32nd on the season in rushing YPG at just 77 per game.
- The Jags are 7-1 ATS in their L8 games, but their offense does not grade particularly well on paper – they rank just 19th in offensive efficiency, 22nd in EPA/play, 15th in YPP, 29th in rushing YPC and 23rd in runs of 10+ yards per game.
- Expect Jake Browning to struggle against this defense. Take the UNDER 38.5 in this one.
OVER OF THE WEEK
Eagles / 49ers OVER 47.5
- This matchup will feature two of the league’s top 5 offenses by our efficiency metrics. Philly ranks 2nd in the league in offensive efficiency, 5th in EPA/play, 6th in series conversion rate and early down success rate, 8th in rushing YPG, 5th in RZ TD % and 4th in RZ trips per game. San Fran meanwhile ranks 5th in offensive efficiency, 1st in EPA/play, 1st in series conversion rate, 2nd in YPP, 5th in 3rd down conversion rate, 9th in passing YPG, 1st in YPA, 7th in rushing YPG, 6th in RZ TD % and 2nd in RZ trips per game.
- San Fran should have an opportunity to move the ball against a Philly defense that ranks 28th in defensive efficiency, 27th in series conversion rate, 30th in 3rd down conversion rate, 29th in passing YPG allowed, 30th in passes of 10+ yards, 28th in RZ TD % and 24th in RZ trips per game. Sam Howell (39-52, 397 yards, 4 TD’s, 1 INT), Dak Prescott (29-44, 374 yards, 3 TD’s) and Josh Allen (29-51, 339 yards, 2 TD’s, 1 INT) have all torched this defense in the last calendar month, while Buffalo finished 13-22 on 3rd down in Philly in Week 12.
- San Fran should be able to move the ball through the air and have opportunities to convert on 3rd down and in the RZ against a Philly defense that has played some situationally bad football at times this season in key spots. There is precipitation in the forecast in Philly on Sunday but should be cleared by kickoff – take the OVER 47.5 in this spot with two of the most efficient offenses in the league going head to head.
Model Picks
Our models are 29-12-2 (70.7%) in 2023 and have two picks for the Sunday slate. Head over to the About us section to read up on the models and methodology.
Head over to our Dashboard section of the site to comb through game matchup dashboards for every game on the board in Week 13, and browse our Player Matchup Analysis dashboards to optimize your DFS / FF lineups and target the player prop markets.
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