Around the NFL: Week 13 Recap

Concise game recaps and implications from Week 13 that provide you with information that matters to attack Week 14. Head over to our game matchup dashboards to understand each team’s strengths and weaknesses as teams as every team continues to reveal who they are in 2023. Once you digest takeaways from the Week 13, head over to our dashboard section to break down the Week 14 board.

Seahawks / Cowboys

  • Seattle took a 35-30 lead on the road in Dallas with just over seven minutes left in the 4th quarter, but Dallas answered with a TD, FG and two turnovers on downs on defense to close out the Seahawks in a game where both teams combined for 817 yards of total offense. Seattle finished 4-5 on RZ trips, while Dallas logged an impressive 8 trips and finished 4-8 on the evening. CeeDee Lamb caught 12 balls for 116 yards and 1 TD on 17 targets against a Seattle secondary that entered Week 13 ranking 24th in passing YPG allowed. Seattle has now lost four of their L5 games and find themselves on the outside looking in in the NFC playoff picture as they head to SF as a 10.5-point dog on Sunday. Dallas’ offense is firing on all cylinders, ranking 3rd in offensive efficiency and EPA/play heading into Week 13, and will host a Philly defense that’s been torched over the L6 weeks as 3.5-point favorites in Week 14.

Titans / Colts

  • Gardner Minshew led the Colts to an OT victory on the road in Tennessee and has the Colts squarely in the AFC postseason picture as a Wild Card at 7-5; the Colts were outgained by Tennessee 355 – 381, but sacked Will Levis 6 times and scored 10 points off a blocked a punt and a fumble in the second half. Indy finished just 1-5 on RZ trips and 3-14 on 3rd down and ran for just 55 yards on the ground, but found a way to win the game. Minshew threw for 312 yards and 2 TD’s on 26-42 passing against a below average Titans secondary, while Michael Pittman caught 11 balls for 105 yards and a TD on 16 targets, including the game-winning TD in OT. Indy has won four in a row and is now 5-1 ATS in their L6, heading to Cincy in Week 14 as 2.5-point favorites. Tennessee drops to 4-8, losers of four of their L5 and 1-4 ATS in their as they head to Miami to face the Dolphins’ high-powered passing attack as 14-point underdogs on SNF.

Patriots / Chargers

  • This was one of the ugliest games of football in recent memory (reminiscent of Giants-Jets earlier this season) in which the Patriots outgained the Chargers 257- 241 but finished 4-14 on 3rd down, managed zero RZ trips and allowed Bailey Zappe to be sacked 5 times. The Chargers also logged zero RZ trips, finished 5-15 on 3rd down, amassed just 29 yards total on the ground on 24 carries and kicked two field goals, enough to win and cover a 5.5-point spread. The Chargers have talent on paper on the offensive side of the ball but are 9-1 to the UNDER in their L10, and are 3-point favorites at home against Denver’s surging defense in Week 14. The Patriots are an impressive 2-10 ATS on the season, are averaging 9.4 PPG over the L5 weeks and are 6-point underdogs on the road on TNF in a game where the total is 30.

Saints / Lions

  • Detroit took a 24-7 lead into halftime and ultimately closed out the Saints late in the second half as New Orleans could not overcome the hole they dug themselves early in this game. The Saints outgained the Lions 362 – 347 but had two costly turnovers that Detroit converted into 14 points. The Lions ran for 142 yards on the ground on 30 attempts and finished 3-5 on RZ trips, while the Saints finished 4-4 on their own RZ trips. Alvin Kamara accounted for 109 yards from scrimmage and will continue to be a focal point of this offense for New Orleans in both the run and pass game. Detroit’s defense ranks 26th in the league in defensive efficiency and is going to be a liability in a postseason matchup where they’ll inevitably face the Cowboys, 49ers or Eagles.  The Lions are 7-2 to the OVER in their L9 and will head to Chicago as 3-point road favorites in Week 14, while the Saints are 5.5-point favorites at home against the Panthers.

Jets / Falcons

  • The Falcons won ugly in a game where they were outgained 194 – 259, finished 4-14 on 3rd down and 0-1 on RZ trips, improving to 6-6 and taking control of the NFC South division lead. The Falcons won in spite of Desmond Ridder, who finished 12-27 for 121 yards and a TD, as their defense recorded a safety and forced 3 TO’s. The Falcons recorded just 72 yards of offense in the second half on 33 plays. Atlanta has now won two in a row with a schedule that includes the Bucs, Panthers, Colts, Bears and Saints the rest of the way; they are 2.5-point favorites at home against the Bucs in Week 14, while the Jets are 6.5-point dogs on the road against the Texans.

Steelers / Cardinals

  • The Steelers lost Kenny Pickett for an extended period of time to an ankle injury in a game where they also lost by two scores to the Cardinals despite holding Arizona to just 145 yards passing. Arizona finished 10-17 on 3rd down, 3-3 in the RZ and ran for 150 yards on the ground behind a strong performance from James Conner (25 carries, 105 yards, 2 TD’s). Mitchell Trubisky to 145 yards of offense in the second half, but considering 75 came on a garbage time drive down 24-3 late in the 4th quarter, he was not effective in relief of Kenny Pickett. The Steelers are now 10-2 to the UNDER in 2023 and head into a TNF matchup with the Patriots as 6-point favorites where the total is just 30; the Cardinals are on a bye in Week 14.  

Commanders / Dolphins

  • Miami completely throttle bodied the commanders, leading 31-7 at halftime thanks to a huge first half from Tua and Tyreek Hill; Tua connected with Tyreek on passing TD’s of 78 and 60 yards, finishing 18-24 for 280 yards, 215 of which came in the first half. Tyreek took advantage of a Washington secondary that entered the week ranking 30th in passing YPG allowed and 31st in passes of 10+ yards allowed, finishing with 5 catches for 157 yards and 2 TD’s on 7 targets. Miami has won three in a row and improves to 9-3 with a firm grasp on the AFC East division lead; they will host the Titans and their below average secondary in Week 14 as 14-point favorites, while the Commanders head into the bye.

Texans / Broncos

  • Houston outgained Denver 353 – 282 and held off a late comeback attempt from the Broncos by intercepting Russell Wilson in the end zone to preserve a 22-17 win and improve to 7-5 on the season. Denver finished 0-11 on 3rd down and just 1-3 in the RZ, turning the ball over 3 times and passing for just 186 yards. CJ Stroud threw for 274 yards on 16-27 passing, leading the Texans to 2-3 in the RZ against a Broncos’ defense that has played well over the last month and a half. Houston lost Tank Dell for the season to a broken leg, but Nico Collins caught 9 balls for 191 yards and a TD on 12 targets in this one. The Texans have won 4 of their L5 but are 7-2 to the UNDER in their L9; they are 6.5-point favorites on the road against the Jets in Week 14, while the Broncos are 2.5-point dogs on the road against the Chargers.  

Buccaneers / Panthers

  • Neither team came out of the gates quick in this game as the Bucs and Panthers combined for 8 punts, a TD and a FG in the first half. Baker Mayfield connected with Mike Evans on a 75-yard TD pass midway through the 2nd half to retake the lead at 14-10, while Chris Godwin later took an end around to the end zone to extend the lead to 21-10. Mayfield finished just 14-29 for 202 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT against a Carolina secondary that ranks 2nd in the league in passing YPG allowed and 4th in passes of 10+ yards allowed, leading the Bucs to a 2-3 conversion rate on RZ trips into TD’s. Bryce Young continued his struggles as a rookie, finishing just 15-31 for 178 yards (4.3 YPA) and an INT and 3-15 on 3rd down; Carolina enters Week 14 ranking 30th in EPA/play, 32nd in YPP and 29th in early down success rate. The Panthers covered their second spread of the season to improve to 2-10 ATS and now head to New Orleans as 5.5-point dogs. Tampa is a 2.5-point dog on the road against Atlanta; they’ve lost 6 of their L8 games.

Eagles / 49ers

  • The Eagles were completely throttle bodied by a 49ers offense that posted 456 yards of total offense, finished 8-11 on 3rd down and 4-4 on RZ trips. SF came out of the gates slow, going three-and-out on their first two drives, but proceeded to post TD’s on their next 6 drives to cruise to a 42-19 victory. Brock Purdy finished 19-27 for 314 yards and 4 TD’s against a Philly secondary that now ranks 32nd on 3rd down conversion rate, 31st in passing YPG allowed (278 per game) and 31st in passes of 10+ yards. Philly sustained some success of their own on offense as Jalen Hurts threw for 298 yards and 1 TD on 26-45 passing, but they finished just 2-4 on RZ trips and could not keep pace with SF once they got rolling on offense. The Eagles are now 4-1 to the OVER in their L5 games as their offense is among the league’s most efficient and their defense struggles to contain above average passers; they head to Dallas as 3.5-point dogs against a Dallas offense that’s clicking on all cylinders right now. SF has now outscored opponents 134-49 in their L4 games, is 3-1 ATS in that stretch, and heads home to take on Seattle as a 10.5-point dog against a Seahawks’ defense that just allowed Dallas to post 411 yards of offense and 41 points on TNF.

Rams / Browns

  • Joe Flacco made his return to the NFL with the Browns but could not keep pace with Matt Stafford in the Rams in a 2nd half in which LA posted TD’s on 3 of 5 possessions and built on a 13-10 halftime lead. The Rams outgained the Browns 399 – 327 and finished 3-4 on RZ trips against a Browns defense that has been among the league’s best all season but ranks 25th in RZ TD %. Matt Stafford finished 23-37 for 279 yards and 3 TD’s, finding Puka Nacua 4 times for 105 yards and a TD on 5 targets against a Browns’ secondary that was missing its top corner in Denzel Ward. Cleveland’s defense has been a topic of conversation all season, but they are 6-2 to the OVER in their L8; they will host the Jags as 3-point favorites with a total of 30 on Sunday. The Rams meanwhile have won three in a row but head to Balitmore as a 7-point favorite in a game where weather may be a factor with 16-18 mph winds in the forecast on Sunday.

Packers / Chiefs

  • The Packers won their second straight game after knocking off the Lions on the road on Thanksgiving but upsetting the Chiefs at home outright as 6-point dogs on SNF in a game where they outgained KC 382 – 337, finished 3-4 on RZ trips and led wire-to-wire after posting a TD on the opening drive of the game. Jordan Love finished 26-37 for 267 yards and 3 TD’s against a KC defense that ranks 8th in YPP allowed and 5th in passing YPG allowed on the season. GB held Pat Mahomes to just 210 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT on 21-33 passing despite missing their best CB in Jaire Alexander. The Packers are now 4-1 SU and ATS in their L5 and find themselves as the 7th seed in the NFC Playoff picture after starting the season 2-5; GB is a 6.5-point favorite on MNF on the road against the Giants. KC has lost two of their L4 and is a 2.5-point favorite at home against the Bills on Sunday.

Jaguars / Bengals

  • The Jags lost Trevor Lawrence to a high ankle sprain and apparently did not have a cart available to transport him to the locker room. Cincy outgained the Jags 491 – 376 and won outright on MNF with Jake Browning, who 32-37 for 354 yards and a TD against a Jags’ defense that ranks 11th in our defensive efficiency metrics and 8th in EPA/play allowed. The Bengals finished 3-3 on RZ trips and 8-14 on 3rd down, while Jamar Chase caught 11 balls for 149 yards and 1 TD on 12 targets against a Jacksonville secondary that ranks 28th in passing YPG allowed. Cincy snapped a 3-game losing streak and climbed back to 6-6 and firmly on the bubble of the AFC Playoff race in a week where the Steelers lost Kenny Pickett and the Jags lost Trevor Lawrence. The Jags now have just a 1-game lead on the Colts in the AFC South with Lawrence’s status in question for Week 14; they are 3-point dogs on the road in Cleveland on Sunday.

Made it here? Head over to our game and player matchup dashboards to dissect every matchup and identify the biggest mismatches to attack the betting markets or optimize your DFS and fantasy football lineups in Week 14.