Around the NFL: Week 14 Recap

Concise game recaps and implications from Week 14 that provide you with information that matters to attack Week 15. Head over to our game matchup dashboards to understand each team’s strengths and weaknesses as teams as every team continues to reveal who they are in 2023. Once you digest takeaways from the Week 14, head over to our dashboard section to break down the Week 15 board.

Steelers / Patriots

  • The total on this game closed at a shockingly low total of 30.5 but got over to 31 thanks to a TD and successful 2-point conversion attempt early in the 4th quarter from Mitch Trubisky. New England outgained Pittsburgh 303 – 264 and scored all their points in the first half, heading into the break with a 21-10 lead it ultimately maintained to improve to 3-10 on the season. These teams combined to go 7-27 on 3rd down, though New England finished 2-2 in the RZ, making the most of their opportunities near the end zone. Bailey Zappe finished 19-28 for 240 yards, 3 TD’s and 1 INT but lead NE to five punts and a TO on 6 2nd half possessions, while Pittsburgh’s offense was anemic most of the night, punting the ball 6 times and turning the ball over on downs twice. Pittsburgh is now 10-3 to the UNDER in 2023 and heads to Indy as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday night against the Colts, while the Patriots are 9-4 to the UNDER and will host the Chiefs as 9.5-point dogs at home on Sunday.

Falcons / Buccaneers

  • Atlanta outgained Tampa by a margin of 434 – 290 but found a way to lose the game outright thanks to late game heroics from Baker Mayfield, who lead a 12-play, 75-yard TD drive to take a 29-25 lead with 30 seconds remaining in regulation and propelled the Bucs to 17 points on their final 4 possessions of the game after posting just 80 yards of total offense on 29 plays in the first half. Desmond Ridder threw for 347 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT on 26-40 passing against TB’s 29th ranked secondary by passing YPG allowed, finished 2-3 on RZ trips and found Drake London for 10 catches and 172 yards on 11 targets, but couldn’t secure the win. With the win, the Bucs moved into a 3-way tie for the NFC South lead with the Falcons and Saints; they are 5-2 ATS in their L7 and 3-0 to the OVER in their L3, heading to GB as 3.5-point dogs on Sunday. The Falcons fell to 4-9 ATS on the season and snapped a 2-game winning streak; they are 3-point favorites on the road against Carolina on Sunday.

Bears / Lions

  • The Bears took down the Lions outright at home two weeks after blowing a 26-14 lead on the road in Detroit where they lost outright. Chicago outgained Detroit 336 – 267, forced 3 TO’s, held Detroit to 6-15 on 3rd down and Jared Goff to just 161 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT’s on 20-35 passing in a classic Jared Goff outdoors spot. Chicago finished just 2-5 on RZ trips but took care of the football (0 TO’s), ran for 142 yards on the ground and blanked the Lions in the 2nd half by holding Detroit to just 74 yards on 31 plays. Justin Fields finished 19-33 for 223 yards and a TD and added another 58 yards and a TD on the ground on 12 carries – he averaging 74 rushing YPG since returning from injury. The Bears are now 4-1 ATS in their L5 and 5-1 to the UNDER in their L6; they are 3-point dogs on the road in Cleveland on Sunday. The Lions have lost 2 of their L3 games outright, are 1-3 ATS in their L4 and 4-1 to the OVER in their L5; they will not play an outdoor game the rest of the season and are 4.5-point favorites at home against Denver on Saturday afternoon.

Bengals / Colts

  • Jake Browning was efficient at the QB position for the Bengals for a second week in a row after picking the Jags apart on MNF in Week 13; the finished 18-24 for 275 yards, 2 TD’s and 1 INT. Cincy outgained Indy 385 – 272, forced 2 TO’s on defense, finished 3-5 in the RZ and rushed for another 111 yards on the ground. The Bengals outscored Indy 20-0 in the second half and held the Colts to just 92 yards of offense on 24 plays in that span. Indy failed to take advantage of a Cincy run defense that entered Week 14 ranking 27th in rushing YPG allowed, amassing just 46 yards on 18 carries and finishing 3-11 on 3rd down and 1-3 in the RZ. Cincy has now won and covered in 2 straight games, is 5-2 to the OVER in their L7 and will host the Vikings as 3.5-point favorites at home on Saturday afternoon. Indy meanwhile saw a 4-game winning and cover streak snapped; they are 9-4 to the OVER on the season and 6-2 to the OVER in their L8 games. They will host the Steelers as 2.5-point favorites on Saturday night.

Browns / Jaguars

  • Joe Flacco locked down the starting QB role for the Browns for the rest of the season by leading an offense that posted 389 yards of total offense and 31 points in a performance where Flacco threw for 311 yards, 3 TD’s and 1 INT on 26-45 passing despite finishing just 4-18 on 3rd down and logging just 1 RZ trip. Cleveland’s high-powered defense forced 4 Jacksonville TO’s that they in turn turned into 14 points early in the second half to build a 28-14 lead that they ultimately held onto to improve to 8-5 and supplant their position for now at the 5-seed in the AFC playoff race. Jacksonville meanwhile finished 4-4 in the RZ but could not overcome the 4 TO’s that they lost. Cleveland’s defense is clearly among the league’s best, and if Flacco can improve even marginally upon Cleveland’s offensive efficiency, they’ll be a dangerous team down the stretch given that they currently rank 31st in the league in offensive efficiency, 29th in EPA/play and 29th in YPP. The Browns are 4-2 ATS in their L6 and 7-2 to the OVER in their L9; they will host the Bears as 3.5-point favorites on Sunday. The Jags have now lost two straight after ripping off a 7-1 ATS streak in their previous 9 and are 3-1 to the OVER in their L4; they are 3.5-point home dogs against Baltimore on SNF.

Saints / Panthers

  • Carolina outgained New Orleans 303 – 207 but lost by 3 scores on the road, finishing 8-20 on 3rd down, 0-2 on RZ trips and turning the ball over twice. Bryce Young finished a putrid 13-36 for 137 yards, while the Panthers ran for 204 yards on the ground against a Saints’ run defense that now ranks 28th in the league in rushing YPG (133 per game). Derek Carr threw for just 119 yards, 2 TD’s and an INT on 18-26 passing (4.6 YPA) and lead the Saints to just 118 yards of offense early in the 3rd quarter before posting two scoring drives to extend a 14-6 lead to 28-6 on the final two drives of the game, ultimately boosted by a fumble return for a TD late in the first half that gave them a 14-6 lead. Carolina continues to be completely impotent on offense, ranking 29th in offensive efficiency, 30th in EPA/play and 32nd in YPP; they are now 2-11 ATS on the season and 6-1 to the UNDER in their L7 largely thanks to their offense that lacks any form of explosiveness. Carolina is a 3-point dog at home against Atlanta on Sunday. The saints have similarly and consistently underperformed expectations but improved to 3-10 ATS with the win and cover; they are 6-point favorites at home against the Giants in Week 15.

Jets / Texans

  • Zach Wilson did not inspire much confidence in the first half of this game, leading the Jets to 5 punts, 0 points and 86 yards of total offense on 26 snaps in the first half, but he was able to flip the switch in the second half, leading the Jets to 3 TD’s and 3 FG’s on 7 2nd half possessions to cruise to a 30-6 win. The Jets outgained the Texans 347 – 135 and held Houston to 1-12 on 3rd down, while Wilson finished 27-36 for 301 yards and 2 TD’s, leading the Jets to a 3-3 conversion rate within the RZ and finding Garrett Wilson 9 times for 108 yards on 14 targets. With the win the Jets snapped an 0-6 stretch ATS but are 6-2 to the UNDER in their L8; they are 8.5-point dogs on the road in Miami in Week 15. CJ Stroud left the game with a concussion and is working through the protocol this week; Houston finds themselves in a dogfight in the AFC playoff picture and will head to Tennessee as a 2.5-point dog on the road.

Ravens / Rams

  • Baltimore outgained LA 449 – 410 and ultimately pulled out an OT victory at home in a torrential downpour to improve to 10-3 on the season and take sole control of the 1-seed in the AFC. Lamar Jackson finished with 316 yards, 3 TD’s and 1 INT on 24-43 passing with another 70 yards rushing on 11 carries, but lead Baltimore to a 4-12 conversion rate on 3rd down and 1-3 on RZ trips. Matthew Stafford had significant success against a Baltimore defense that ranks 4th in defensive efficiency and 1st in EPA/play allowed, finishing with 294 yards and 3 TD’s on 23-41 passing and leading the Rams to 3-5 in the RZ. Isaiah Likely caught 5 balls for 83 yards and a TD, including a 54-yard TD – his involvement in the offense in Mark Andrews’ absence will be an item to watch for Baltimore moving forward. Cooper Kupp (8 receptions, 115 yards, 1 TD, 10 targets) and Puka Nacua (5 receptions, 84 yards, 8 targets) combined for 203 yards receiving and 18 targets on the day. The Rams are now 3-0 ATS and to the OVER in the L3 weeks and will host a Commanders’ secondary that is among the league’s worst in Week 15 as 6.5-point favorites. Baltimore is 5-2 to the OVER in their L7 and heads to Jacksonville as a 3.5-point road favorite on SNF.

Raiders / Vikings

  • Minnesota outgained LV by a margin of 231 – 202 but threw for just 99 yards passing, finished 0-1 in the RZ and punted 9 times on 11 total possessions, while the Raiders posted just 56 yards on the ground, finished 0-1 in the RZ, punted 8 times, lost two fumbles and an INT and finished 3-14 on 3rd down. This game was an indictment on offense from a Raiders’ team that ranks 30th in offensive efficiency and a Vikings unit that ranks 26th in the same metric. The Vikings are now 10-3 to the UNDER on the season thanks to an offense that does not have a viable QB and a defense that has surged from 25th in defensive efficiency in Week 7 to 2nd heading into Week 15; they are 3.5-point underdogs on the road on Saturday afternoon against the Bengals. The Raiders meanwhile are also 10-3 to the UNDER in 2023 thanks to a highly impotent offense; they are 3-point favorites at home on TNF against a Chargers’ team that will be missing both Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen.

49ers / Seahawks

  • San Fran methodically dismantled Seattle at home for the second time in four weeks, outgaining the Seahawks 527 – 324 and posting 173 yards rushing against a Seattle defense that ranks 22nd in the league in rushing YPG allowed and 23rd in YPC allowed. Brock Purdy picked apart Seattle’s 25th ranked secondary by passing YPG allowed, finishing with 368 yards, 2 TD’s and an INT on 19-27 passing, while Deebo Samuel (7 catches, 149 yards, 1 TD, 9 targets) and Brandon Aiyuk (6 catches, 126 yards, 9 targets) both dominated. Seattle finished just 2-11 on 3rd down with Drew Lock at the helm and logged just 1 trip to the RZ. SF has now won 5 in a row and have outscored opponents 162-65 in that stretch; they are 6-3 to the OVER in their L9 thank to one of the most efficient offenses in the league and are now 13.5-point favorites on the road against a Cardinals defense that ranks 30th in the league in defensive efficiency. The Seahawks have now lost 5 of their L6 games and are in a complete tailspin; they are 4-point dogs at home against Philly.

Chiefs / Bills

  • KC outgained Buffalo by a margin of 346 – 327 but lost the game thanks in part to an offensive offsides call on Kadarius Toney but also thanks to a failure to score more than 17 points at home and conduct an efficient offense all game. KC lost the TO battle with a lost fumble and an INT and only possessed the ball for 24:39 of clock time. Pat Mahomes finished 25-43 for 271 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT and connected with his top to targets in Travis Kelce (6 catches, 83 yards, 10 targets) and Rashee Rice (7 catches, 72 yards, 1 TD, 10 targets) on half of his completions. Buffalo got a win that they needed badly to stay in the AFC playoff race, improving to 7-6; that said, they are 2-7 ATS and 7-2 to the UNDER in their L7, a credit to their chaotic offensive strategy that boils down to Josh Allen playing hero ball. Buffalo is a 2-point favorite at home against Dallas in Week 15, while the Chiefs are 9.5-point favorites on the road against NE.

Chargers / Broncos

  • Denver put another win on the board to stay in the AFC playoff picture in a game where they outgained LA 322 – 283 but managed just 4.9 yards per play; Russell Wilson threw for 224 yards, 2 TD’s and 1 INT on 21-33 passing and lead the Broncos to 8-17 on 3rd down and 2-4 in the RZ, bouncing back after throwing an INT on his first play from scrimmage. Justin Herbert was knocked out of the game with an injury to his index finger, while Easton Stick finished with 179 yards on 13-24 passing in relief but could not manage to post points on the board until the midway point of the 4th quarter. Denver is 7-1 to the UNDER in their L8 games but has now won 5 of their L6 and is 5-2 ATS in their L7. Denver is a 4.5-point dog on the road against the Lions on Saturday. The Chargers will be without Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen on TNF and look to be on their way to a coaching change in the offseason; they are 1-5 ATS in their L6 games and 10-1 to the UNDER in their L11. The Chargers are 3-point dogs on the road against the Raiders in Week 15.

Cowboys / Eagles

  • Philly was throttle bodied by one of the NFC’s best teams for a second week in a row on the road in Dallas in a game where they were outgained 324 – 394, logged just 1 RZ trip, turned the ball over 3 times and posted 6 total points of offense. Dallas controlled this game from start to finish thanks to an explosive offense that posted 3 TD’s and a FG on four first half possessions and took a 24-6 lead into halftime. Philly’s secondary that ranked 31st in passing YPG allowed heading into Week 14 was torched once again by Dak Prescott, who finished 24-39 for 271 yards and 2 TD’s, leading Dallas to a 9-16 conversion rate on 3rd down and 3-3 on RZ trips. Philly’s defensive collapse over the L6 weeks has finally caught up to them and creates significant concern with the postseason around the corner; the Eagles are 4-2 to the OVER in their L6 in a stretch where opponents are scoring 30 points per game; they are 3.5-point favorites on the road against Seattle on MNF. Dallas is 6-2 ATS and to the OVER in their L8 games and takes control of the NFC East with the win; they head to Buffalo as a 2-point dog on Sunday.

Giants / Packers

  • Tommy DeVito has now won 3 straight games at the starter for the NY Giants after leading a game-winning drive to give the Giants a 24-22 victory at home over the Packers on MNF in a game where the Giants outgained the Packers 367 – 326, ran for 209 yards against a GB run defense that ranks 31st in the league in rushing YPG allowed (143 per game) and finished 3-4 on RZ trips. Green Bay turned the ball over 3 times, finished just 2-5 in the RZ and managed just 4.9 yards per play on the offensive side of the ball; they had opportunities to build a lead against the Giants but failed to take control of the game and ultimately lost outright. The Giants are now 3-0 ATS in their L3 games and will head to New Orleans as 6-point dogs in Week 15. The Packers snapped a 3-game winning streak but are now 4-1 to the OVER in their L5 games, an indicator of Jordan Love’s progression at the helm of the Green Bay offense over the last month plus; they are 3.5-point favorites at home in Green Bay on Sunday.

Dolphins / Titans

  • Miami forced 3 Tennessee turnovers and lead 27-13 with 4:34 left in the 4th quarter but found a way to lost outright as 13.5-point favorites at home against Will Levis and the Titans, who ultimately outgained the Dolphins by a margin of 403 – 366, finished 3-5 in the RZ and allowed Levis to be sacked just one time despite facing one of the top 5 pass rushes in football with one of the bottom 5 OL’s by pass protection in the league. Levis finished with 327 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT on 23-38 passing, finding DeAndre Hopkins 7 times for 124 yards and a TD on 12 targets. Miami lost Tyreek Hill in the first half and their offense sputtered as a result; Tua finished with 240 yards and no TD’s on 23-33 passing, while Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane lead a Miami rushing attack that racked up 158 yards and 2 TD’s on the ground against a Tennessee run defense that ranks 5th in the league in YPC. Miami snapped a 3-game winning streak and now will host the Jets as an 8.5-point favorite at home on Sunday, while the Titans are 3-1 to the OVER in their L4 and will host the Texans as 2.5-point favorites on Sunday with CJ Stroud’s status up in the air.

Made it here? Head over to our game and player matchup dashboards to dissect every matchup and identify the biggest mismatches to attack the betting markets or optimize your DFS and fantasy football lineups in Week 15.