Around the NFL: Week 16 Preview

We are here on a weekly basis to provide you with impartial matchup analysis to navigate each week and make informed, data-driven decisions with the latest information at hand. We rely on our game and player matchup analysis dashboards that provide a concise overview of a team’s strengths and weaknesses at every level of the game and produce advantage insights by identifying key mismatches in the trenches, at the skill positions and in the secondary that will have a significant impact on game results across the league each week.

Mismatches that Will Impact Game Results in Week 16

• Baker Mayfield struggled between Weeks 12 and 14 as he faced the Colts, Panthers (3rd in passing YPG allowed) and Falcons (9th in passing YPG), but he played his best game of the season in Week 15 against the Packers’ secondary that ranks 11th in passing YPG allowed, throwing for 381 yards and 4 TD’s on 22-28 passing. He has an excellent matchup in Week 16 against a Jags’ secondary that ranks 28th in passing YPG allowed, 24th in YPA and 27th in passes of 10+ yards allowed. 4 of the L6 QB’s to face the Jags have thrown for 300+ yards; opposing passers have cleared 300 yards in 8 of 14 games this season and have cleared 233 (Baker’s season average per game) in 9 of 13 games.
• Buffalo heads to LA with an offense that ranks 7th in the league in offensive efficiency, 2nd in EPA/play and series conversion rate and 4th in both YPP and early down success rate off a week in which the posted 351 yards in total and 266 rushing yards on a Dallas defense that ranks 3rd in EPA/play allowed and 6th in YPP allowed. Buffalo has a much juicier matchup this week against a Chargers’ defense that just allowed a Raiders’ offense that ranks 26th in in offensive efficiency to post 49 points of offense and on the season ranks 23rd in defensive efficiency, 27th in EPA/play, 28th in series conversion rate, 29th in YPP allowed, 24th in early down success rate, 32nd in passing YPG, 27th in YPA and 29th in passes of 10+ yards allowed. Josh Allen will have an opportunity to light this secondary up on Christmas eve.
• The Falcons are off an embarrassing loss on the road against the Panthers in a critical juncture in the season that made a playoff berth much more difficult to obtain, but they’ll have an opportunity to right the ship with Taylor Heinicke at home in Week 16 against the upstart Colts. Atlanta was banged up on the OL last week and was not able to get the running game moving in the torrential downpour, but they rank 9th in rushing YPG and 8th in runs of 10+ yards on the season with a matchup against a Colts’ defense that ranks 26th in rushing YPG allowed and 26th in runs of 10+ yards allowed and is allowing 138 rushing YPG over the L8 weeks. Bijan Robinson’s production has not been strong over the L2 weeks, but he’ll have an opportunity to get back on track in Week 16.
• The Bears rank 5th in the league in rushing YPG, 9th in YPC and 3rd in runs of 10+ yards with a juicy matchup against a Cardinals’ defense that ranks 31st in rushing YPG (140 per game), 25th in YPC and 28th in runs of 10+ yards. Since he returned from injury in Week 11, Justin Fields is averaging 12 rushes per game and nearly 63 yards, while the Cardinals most recently allowed the 49ers to rush for 234 yards on 30 attempts in Week 15 and the Pittsburgh Steelers to go for 150 yards on 38 attempts in Week 14.
• The Eagles have hit a rough stretch in their season losing 3 straight to the 49ers, Cowboys and Seahawks, but will have an opportunity to right the ship on the ground in Week 16 against a Giants’ run defense that ranks 29th in rushing YPG allowed, 30th in YPC allowed and 31st in runs of 10+ yards allowed on the season. The Eagles ran for 178 yards on 38 attempts in Week 15 against a Seattle run defense that ranks 25th in rushing YPG and 24th in YPC allowed, and should have a similar commitment to the run game against a defense that can be exposed on Christmas afternoon in Week 16.

In the last three years, drives where a QB wasn’t sacked ended in a punt 31% of the time, made it to the RZ 33% of the time, and averaged 2.3 points per drive. On drives where a QB was sacked at least once, drives ended in a punt 56% of the time, made it to the red zone 20% of the time, and averaged 1 point per drive. Understanding specific matchups in the trenches is critical to understanding game outcomes.

Matchups in the Trenches

• Green Bay has an excellent pass protection unit that ranks 6th in the season in sacks allowed with an excellent matchup in Week 16 against a Panthers’ DL that ranks 32nd in the league in sacks on the season and does not have any sort of pulse to put pressure on Jordan Love. Despite an atrocious pass rush, the Panthers somehow rank 2nd in passing YPG allowed and 3rd in passes of 10+ yards allowed, a testament to their secondary.
• TB’s OL ranks 10th in the league in sacks allowed and will be facing a bottom 10 pass rush in the Jaguars in Week 16; if this OL can give Baker Mayfield some time in the pocket, he should be able to pick apart a Jacksonville secondary that we previously discussed is among the worst in the league.
• Houston is banged up on the offensive side of the ball at various skill positions including at QB and WR and to make matters worse, their 26th ranked OL by sacks allowed will match up with a Browns’ DL that ranks 8th in the league in sacks on the season, 7th in QB hits, 1st in EPA/play and 2nd in YPP allowed. Cleveland’s pass rush has an opportunity to make a significant impact on this game against a Houston OL that has battled injuries all season.
• Dallas is tied for 10th in the league in sacks allowed, facing a Miami pass rush that ranks 2nd in sacks on the season and 1st in QB hits. Dak was sacked 3 times and threw for just 134 yards and an INT on 21-34 passing against Buffalo’s 5th ranked pass rush by sacks, and could struggle in similar fashion in Week 16 against a Miami defense that sacked Jets’ QB’s 6 times in Week 15.
• The Jets’ pass rush is tied for 13th on the season in sacks and 11th in QB hits and will have an opportunity to tee off on a Washington OL That ranks 30th in sacks allowed and QB hits allowed. The Jets have sacked the opposing QB at least 3 times in 7 of L10 games.

60% of all offensive touchdowns in the last three years came on plays from inside the 10-yard line. Understanding teams and players that participate in offenses that do or do not move the ball inside the RZ and their opponent’s 10-yard line is critical in understanding players who are positioned for success.

Red Zone Matchup Analysis

• Buffalo ranks 5th in the league in RZ trips and 3rd in RZ TD % – they have an excellent matchup on Saturday night against a Chargers’ defense that ranks 22nd in RZ trips allowed and most recently allowed the Raiders’ extremely below average offense finish 3-3 on RZ Trips and post 49 total points of offense in Week 15. Stefon Diggs has caught 8 TD’s on the season and will have an excellent matchup against a Chargers’ defense that ranks 27th in passing TD’s allowed.
• The Eagles have every opportunity to get back on track in Week 16 against the Giants with an offense that ranks 9th in RZ trips on the season and a matchup against a NYG defense that ranks 26th in RZ trips allowed and 24th in RZ TD %. Philly has struggled the L3 weeks but on the season still ranks 9th in RZ TD % and should plan to run the ball early and often on a Giants’ defense that ranks 29th in rushing YPG allowed and 31st in runs of 10+ yards.
• The Raiders blew the doors off the Chargers’ in Week 15 but are going to have a much more difficult matchup against a Chiefs defense that ranks 9th in RZ trips allowed, 10th in defensive efficiency and 5th in YPP allowed. The Raiders rank 25th in the league in RZ trips and 23rd in RZ TD % and are going to be facing an uphill battle in Week 16.

Player Props of the Week

Josh Allen O245.5 Passing Yards – FD

• Josh Allen has had a pair of down weeks in Week 14 and 15 in terms of passing production, but he faced the Chiefs and Cowboys, who rank 4th and 5th in the league respectively in passing YPG allowed. Allen had previously been on a tear in a stretch between Weeks 4 and 12 where he cleared 245.5 passing yards in 7 of 9 games, most recently torching a Philly secondary that now ranks 29th in passing YPG allowed and 30th in passes of 10+ yards, finishing with 339 yards, 2 TD’s and an INT on 29-51 passing.
• Allen has a tremendous matchup with a Chargers’ secondary that is the worst in the league, ranking 32nd in passing YPG allowed, 27th in YPA and 29th in passes of 10+ yards. More generally, the Chargers rank 23rd in defensive efficiency, 27th in EPA/play, 28th in series conversion rate and 29th in YPP, while Allen leads a Buffalo offense that ranks 7th in offensive efficiency, 2nd in EPA/play, 2nd in series conversion rate, 4th in YPP, 4th in early down success rate and 2nd in 3rd down conversion rate. Allen should have plenty of opportunities to extend drives consistently and torch this horrible defense.
• The Chargers have faced the Raiders, Broncos and Patriots in the L3 weeks, which is not exactly a murderer’s row of top QB talent, but Jordan Love (27-40, 322 yards, 2 TD’s), Jared Goff (23-33, 333 yards, 2 TD’s), Pat Mahomes (32-42, 424 yards, 4 TD’s), Dak Prescott (21-30, 272 yards, 1 TD), Kirk Cousins (32-50, 367 yards, 3 TD’s) and Tua Tagovailoa (28-45, 466 yards, 3 TD’s) have had significant success against this secondary.
• Opposing passers that are above average, a category in which Josh Allen belongs, have lit up the Chargers’ secondary in 2023. Expect Allen to outperform his season average of 252 passing yards per game against this secondary and take the OVER 245.5 passing yards.

Baker Mayfield – OVER 236.5 Passing Yards – DKNG

• Baker Mayfield is having a bit of a career renaissance in Tampa this season and has an excellent matchup with a Jags’ secondary that has been battling injuries and ranks 28th in passing YPG and 27th in passes of 10+ yards on the season.
• Mayfield most recently threw for 381 yards and 4 TD’s on 22-28 passing at Lambeau Field last week against a Packers’ secondary that ranks 11th in passing YPG allowed and 12th in passes of 10+ yards.
• CB’s Christian Braswell and Tyson Campbell and S Andre Cisco are all questionable but were limited participants in practice on Friday. 4 of the L6 passers to face this Jags’ secondary have cleared 300 passing yards: Joe Flacco (26-45, 311 yards, 3 TD’s, 1 INT), Jake Browning (33-39, 347 yards, 1 TD), CJ Stroud (26-36, 304 yards, 2 TD’s) and Brock Purdy (20-28, 302 yards, 3 TD’s).
• Opposing passers have cleared 300 passing yards in 8 of Jacksonville’s 14 games and have cleared 236.5 passing yards in 9 of 14 games in 2023. Expect Mayfield to be able to sustain success against this secondary and take OVER 236.5 passing yards.

D’Andre Swift O64.5 Rushing Yards – FD

• D’Andre Swift is the top back in a Philly run game that ranks 8th in the league in rushing YPG with an excellent matchup in Week 16 against a Giants’ run defense that ranks 29th in rushing YPG allowed (132.3 per game), 30th in YPC and 31st in runs of 10+ yards. Swift has cleared this number in 3 of the L5 weeks – the two games in which he struggled were against SF (2nd in rushing YPG allowed) and Dallas (12th in rushing YPG) in a game where Philly trailed early and had to turn to the passing game to keep up on SNF.
• The Giants have allowed opponents to run for 137 YPG over the L6 weeks – a number of opposing backs have had significant success, including Alvin Kamara (16 carries, 66 yards), Rhamondre Stevenson (21 carries, 98 yards, 1 TD), Brian Robinson (17 carries, 73 yards), Rico Dowdle (12 carries, 79 yards, 1 TD) and Josh Jacobs (26 carries, 98 yards, 2 TD’s).
• The Eagles have yet to play the Giants in 2023, but in three matchups with them in 2022, they ran for 253 yards, 135 yards and 268 yards. They are acutely aware of the Giants’ weakness in the run game and will likely seek to impose their will in their first meeting of 2023.
• Take Swift O64.5 rushing yards with an excellent matchup against one of the league’s 4 worst rushing defenses on Christmas night.

OVER OF THE WEEK

49ers / Ravens OVER 47 – DKNG

• This matchup with feature two of the league’s top 10 offenses by our offensive efficiency metrics – SF ranks 1st in the league in each of the following categories: offensive efficiency, EPA/play, series conversion rate, YPP, early down success rate, YPA and RZ TD %. As evidenced by the game matchup dashboard, they do not have a weakness on the offensive side of the ball. Baltimore’s offense should be able to pull its weight in this matchup as well – they rank 10th in offensive efficiency, 8th in EPA/play and series conversion rate, 5th in YPP, 2nd in early down success rate and 8th in 3rd down conversion rate.
• SF’s defense has been excellent in 2023, but they do have some weaknesses on 3rd down and defending the pass – they rank 16th in passing YPG allowed and 14th in passes of 10+ yards allowed. Baltimore meanwhile grades extremely well on the defensive side of the ball, but SF’s offensive attack and scheme will be the most complete and efficient unit Baltimore has faced in 2023.
• SF is averaging nearly 35 PPG over their L6 games and is 3-1 to the OVER in their L4, while the Ravens are averaging over 31 PPG on offense over their L8 games. SF routed Arizona in Week 15, but Kyler Murray did lead a Cardinals’ offense to 436 yards of total offense and 29 points, while Matthew Stafford in Week 14 lead the Rams to 410 yards of total offense and 31 points in torrential downpour on the road against the Ravens.
• This matchup is sure to be one of the most anticipated of the season in primetime on Christmas night – expect these offenses to move the ball early and often and take OVER 47.

MODEL PICKS

Our models are 38-20-2 (66%) in 2023 and have 9 picks for the Week 16 slate. Head over to the About us section to read up on the models and methodology.

Head over to our Dashboard section of the site to comb through game matchup dashboards for every game on the board in Week 16, and browse our Player Matchup Analysis dashboards to optimize your DFS / FF lineups and target the player prop markets.

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