Around the NFL: Week 17 Preview

We are here on a weekly basis to provide you with impartial matchup analysis to navigate each week and make informed, data-driven decisions with the latest information at hand. We rely on our game and player matchup analysis dashboards that provide a concise overview of a team’s strengths and weaknesses at every level of the game and produce advantage insights by identifying key mismatches in the trenches, at the skill positions and in the secondary that will have a significant impact on game results across the league each week.

Mismatches that Will Impact Game Results in Week 17

• New England may have just ended the Russell Wilson era in Denver in Week 16, but they posted just 289 yards of total offense with a unit that ranks 26th in offensive efficiency, 28th in EPA/play, 30th in series conversion rate and 28th in YPP. NE does not excel in moving the ball through the air, ranking 25th in passing YPG, 28th in YPA and 25th in passes of 10+ yards; they’ll be facing a Buffalo secondary that ranks 8th in passing YPG allowed, 7th in YPA and 10th in passes of 10+ yards, buoyed by a pass rush that ranks 3rd in sacks and 4th in QB hits on the season. Buffalo ranks 3rd in the league in home point differential, while NE ranks 31st in the league in away point differential.
• Kyren Williams has been on a tear over the L5 weeks since returning from injury – he is averaging 22 carries and over 120 rushing YPG in that stretch with an excellent matchup in Week 17 against a Giants’ run defense that ranks 29th in rushing YPG allowed, 30th in YPC and 31st in runs of 10+ yards. Philly just ran for 170 yards on the ground against the Giants run defense that has allowed opponents to run for at least 123 yards in 6 of the L7 weeks.
• The matchup between Dallas and Detroit on Saturday night will feature two of the most efficient offenses in football going head to head in an indoor setting in Dallas. Dallas ranks 3rd in the league in offensive efficiency, 4th in EPA/play, 3rd in series conversion rate, 6th in YPP and 5th in passing YPG on the season, and have refocused their attention to the passing game since the bye week. Detroit is similarly prolific on offense, ranking 4th in offensive efficiency, 6th in EPA/play, 4th in series conversion rate and 3rd in YPP. Detroit has been suspect on the defensive side of the ball most of this season – they rank 24th in passing YPG allowed, 26th in YPA and 29th in passes of 10+ yards with Dak and CeeDee Lamb up next; Dallas also ranks 1st in the league in RZ trips, and will face a Detroit defense that ranks 24th in RZ trips allowed and 28th in RZ TD %. Nick Mullens just threw for 411 yards through the air in Week 16 against the Lions; expect Prescott, Lamb and company to have similar success.
• SF laid an egg on Christmas night against the Ravens by turning the ball over 5 times, but did still manage to post 429 yards of total offense against a top 5 defense in the league; they will have an opportunity to right the ship in Week 17 against a Washington defense that ranks 25th in defensive efficiency, 29th in EPA/play, 30th in YPP, 30th in passing YPG allowed (272.5 per game), 30th in YPA and 24th in passes of 10+ yards. Brock Purdy leads an offense that ranks 1st in the league in offensive efficiency, EPA/play, series conversion rate and YPP and a passing attack that ranks 2nd in passing YPG, 1st in YPA and 3rd in passes of 10+ yards. He will match up against a Washington secondary that has been lit up all season and ranks 30th in passing YPG allowed, 30th in YPA and 24th in passes of 10+ yards.
• Atlanta’s offense is heavily predicated on running the football – they rank 8th in the league in rushing YPG and 4th in runs of 10+ yards on the season. They will have a difficult matchup against a Bears’ defense that ranks 1st in the league in rushing YPG allowed (81.5 per game), 3rd in YPC and 6th in runs of 10+ yards that held Arizona to 93 yards and Cleveland to 29 yards total on the ground in the L2 weeks.
• Justin Fields has struggled to move the ball through the air during his tenure as the starting QB for the Bears, evidenced by the fact that Chicago ranks 29th in passing YPG, 26th in YPA and 29th in passes of 10+ yards. The Bears will be facing an Atlanta secondary that ranks 7th in passing YPG allowed, 8th in YPA and 9th in passes of 10+ yards.
• Philly has sputtered over the last month of the season, losing three straight games to the 49ers, Cowboys and Seahawks before righting the ship against the Giants on Christmas day in a game where they posted 465 yards of total offense and ran for 170 yards on the ground. On the season they still rank 5th in the league in offensive efficiency, 5th in EPA/play, 6th in series conversion rate, 10th in YPP and 2nd in 3rd down conversion rate; they have an excellent matchup against an Arizona defense that ranks 31st in defensive efficiency, 32nd in EPA/play, 32nd in series conversion rate, 28th in YPP and 32nd in 3rd down conversion rate. Philly runs the ball extremely well, ranking 6th in rushing YPG and 10th in runs of 10+ yards and now has an excellent matchup in the ground game against a Cardinals’ defense that ranks 32nd in rushing YPG allowed, 31st in YPC and 31st in runs of 10+ yards. Chicago just ran for 250 yards on the ground and posted 420 yards of total offense at home against Arizona in Week 16; expect D’Andre Swift and Jalen Hurts to have significant success on the ground in Week 17.
• The matchup between Baltimore and Miami will feature two of the most efficient offenses in football – Baltimore ranks 7th in the league in EPA/play, 8th in series conversion rate, 5th in YPP, 1st in early down success rate, 10th in 3rd down conversion rate, 1st in rushing YPG, 3rd in YPC, 8th in RZ TD % and 1st in RZ trips. Miami meanwhile is even more of a juggernaut, ranking 2nd in offensive efficiency, 3rd in EPA/play, 5th in series conversion rate, 2nd in YPP, 8th in 3rd down conversion rate, 1st in passing YPG an explosive passing plays, 5th in rushing YPG, 1st in YPC, 4th in explosive rushing plays, 9th in RZ trips and 3rd in RZ TD %. Baltimore is 6-3 to the OVER in their L9, is averaging 33.5 PPG in that stretch and just dropped 33 points on SF. Expect big time players to make big time plays in this game on the offensive side of the ball.
• The days of Derrick Henry dominating the Texans, as Houston seemingly has fixed their issues on the run defense that Henry has exposed over the L3 years – Henry would routinely go for 200+ against this defense in previous seasons. Houston now ranks 5th in the league in rushing YPG allowed, 1st in YPC and 8th in runs of 10+ yards allowed, held Henry to just 16 yards on 9 carries in Week 15 and has limited opponents to 81 yards or less of total rushing output in 7 of the L9 weeks.
• If there’s a spot for the KC offense to get back on track, it is this week against the Cincinnati Bengals defense. KC has lashed out a lot on the sideline over the L2 weeks, but they still have an offense that ranks 9th in the league in EPA/play, 7th in series conversion rate, 7th in YPP, 5th in 3rd down conversion rate, 6th in passing YPG, 8th in passes of 10+ yards and 4th in RZ trips. Cincy’s defense meanwhile is among the league’s worst, ranking 31st in EPA/play, 27th in series conversion rate, 32nd in YPP, 32nd in early down success rate, 28th in 3rd down conversion rate, 28th in passing YPG allowed, 32nd in YPA, 31st in passes of 10+ yards and 31st in RZ trips. Mahomes should have an opportunity to go off against this secondary that just allowed Mason Rudolph (17-27, 290 yards, 2 TD’s) and Nick Mullens (26-33, 303 yards, 2 TD’s, 2 INT’s) to have outsized success in the L2 weeks.  

Matchups in the Trenches

• New England’s pass rush has struggled this season, particularly after the loss of Matthew Judon earlier in the year – on the season they rank 24th in sacks and 28th in QB hits; Buffalo meanwhile leads the league in sacks allowed and ranks 4th in QB hits allowed, thanks in part to Josh Allen’s mobility and elusiveness. Allen was sacked just one time and finished 27-41 for 265 yards and 2 TD’s in Buffalo’s first meeting with NE in late October; NE has played a lot of average QB’s since early November but struggled to contain Mahomes’ mobility in Week 15 – he finished 27-37 for 305 yards, 2 TD’s and 2 INT’s though he was sacked three times.
• The Rams have been excellent in pass protection all year and now have a tremendous matchup against a Giants’ pass rush that is practically non-existent, ranking 31st in the league in sacks and 30th in QB hits per game. The Giants have recorded 2 sacks or less in 13 of 15 games this season.
• The Eagles have hit a skid over the last month of the season but that’s been largely due to their troubles in stopping opposing offenses on 3rd down and in the passing game; their OL ranks 10th in the league in sacks allowed with a matchup in Week 17 against a Cardinals’ pass rush that ranks 26th in sacks, 32nd in QB hits and is generally really bad, ranking 32nd in EPA/play, 32nd in series conversion rate, 28th in YPP allowed and 32nd in 3rd down conversion rate.
• Washington’s QB status is up in the air as Jacoby Brissett is now questionable after sustaining an injury in Friday’s practice; regardless of whether it’s Brissett or Sam Howell starting, they’ll be sitting in the pocket behind a Commanders’ OL that ranks 30th in the league in sacks allowed and 29th in QB hits allowed that will be without starting C Tyler Larsen, LT Charles Leno Jr. and potentially starting RT Andrew Wylie, who is questionable, against an SF pass rush that ranks 6th in the league in sacks and 3rd in QB hits.
• Jake Browning will be operating behind a Cincy OL that ranks 23rd in the league in sacks allowed against KC’s high-powered pass rush that ranks 4th in the league in sacks and 5th in QB hits. Browning has been more than solid stepping in for Joe Burrow but will face a tough test against a KC defense that ranks 7th in defensive efficiency, 10th in EPA/play, 5th in YPP allowed, 6th in 3rd down conversion rate and 4th in passing YPG allowed per game.

Red Zone Matchup Analysis

• Dallas returns home with a high-octane offense that ranks 2nd in the league in RZ trips on the season with a matchup against a Detroit defense that ranks 24th in RZ trips allowed and 28th in RZ TD %. CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson rank 2nd and 5th in the league respectively in RZ targets per game, while Lamb ranks 4th in the league in receiving TD’s on the season.
• KC’s offense ranks 4th in the league in RZ trips on the season with an excellent matchup against a Cincy defense that ranks 31st in the league in RZ trips allowed. Rashee Rice leads the league in RZ receptions per game in 2023, while Travis Kelce ranks is tied for 3rd in the league with Tyreek Hill in the same metric.
• Atlanta’s RZ trip counts are heavily influenced by Demond Ridder’s horrible QB play over the course of this season, but they’ll be facing a Chicago defense that ranks 3rd in the league in RZ trips allowed but 32nd in RZ TD %. Heinicke is going to need to make something happen in the passing game as the Falcons will be sledding uphill against a Chicago run defense that ranks 1st in the league in rushing YPG allowed, 3rd in YPC and 6th in runs of 10+ yards.
• On the opposite side of the ball in this same matchup, Chicago’s offense ranks 25th in the league in RZ trips with a matchup against a Falcons’ defense that has improved significantly in 2023 and ranks 4th in the league in RZ trips allowed per game and 1st in RZ TD %.

Player Props of the Week

Brock Purdy O264.5 Passing Yards – DKNG

• Brock Purdy will look to bounce back in Week 17 at the helm of a SF passing attack that ranks 2nd in passing YPG, 1st in YPA and 3rd in passes of 10+ yards, with an excellent matchup against a Washington secondary that ranks 25th in defensive efficiency, 29th in EPA/play, 30th in YPP, 30th in passing YPG allowed (272.5 per game), 30th in YPA and 24th in passes of 10+ yards.
• Purdy has cleared this number in 6 of his L9 games; he has been held in check the L2 weeks but has faced Arizona (13th in passing YPG allowed) and Baltimore (8th in passing YPG allowed) secondaries that are above average in defending the pass.
• Washington has been horrible in defending the pass in 2023 and now will be without their top 2 CB’s in Kendall Fuller and Benjamin St. Juste, as well as S Percy Butler.
• Opposing QB’s have tee’d off on Washington all season – opposing passers have cleared this number in 9 of 15 games, while Tua Tagovailoa (18-24, 280 yards, 2 TD’s in barely 3 quarters of action) and Dak Prescott (22-32, 331 yards, 4 TD’s) are the most recent examples of above average passers to outperform season averages in recent weeks.
• SF is still seeking to lock up home field advantage after falling on their face in Week 16 against Baltimore; Purdy is positioned to have significant success against one of the worst secondaries in the league that will be without three starters. Take Purdy O264.5 passing yards.

Pat Mahomes – O266.5 Passing Yards – FD

• Mahomes leads a KC offense into Week 17 that ranks 6th in passing YPG, 8th in passes of 10+ yards against a Cincy defense that ranks 32nd in YPP allowed, 28th in passing YPG allowed, 32nd in YPA and 31st in passes of 10+ yards.
• Mahomes has cleared this number in 3 of the L5 weeks, and considering that he has played LV twice (10th in passing YPG allowed), Green Bay (8th in passing YPG allowed), Buffalo (10th in passing YPG allowed) and NE (12th in passing YPG allowed), he should be excited about the opportunity to get his offense back on track against one of the five worst secondaries in the league that is very susceptible to explosive passing plays.
• Opposing passers have cleared this number 5 of the L7 weeks against Cincy – Mason Rudolph (17-27, 290 yards, 2 TD’s) and Nick Mullens (26-33, 303 yards, 2 TD’s, 2 INT’s) have performed extremely well over the L2 weeks, while CJ Stroud (23-39, 356 yards, 1 TD) and Brock Purdy (22-31, 365 yards, 1 TD) have also torched this defense in late October and early November.
• KC has hit quite a skid over the last 6 weeks in a stretch where they have lost 4 of 6 games; Mahomes and company should be fired up about this matchup and the chance to get their offense back on track with the postseason just two weeks away. Take Mahomes O266.5 passing yards.

D’Andre Swift O66.5 Rushing Yards – FD

• D’Andre Swift is the feature back in a Philly offense that ranks 6th in rushing YPG and 10th in runs of 10+ yards and now has an excellent matchup in the ground game against a Cardinals’ defense that ranks 32nd in rushing YPG allowed, 31st in YPC and 31st in runs of 10+ yards.
• Chicago just ran for 250 yards on the ground and posted 420 yards of total offense at home against Arizona in Week 16, while Christian McCaffrey ran for 115 yards and a TD on 18 carries a week prior against the Cardinals. Kyren Williams (16 carries, 143 yards) and Royce Freeman (13 carries, 77 yards) led a Rams’ rushing attack that posted 228 yards in total in late November.
• Swift has cleared this number in 4 of the L6 weeks and should have every opportunity to torch the worst rushing defense in the league at home in Week 17. Take Swift O64.5 rushing yards with an excellent matchup against the league’s worst rushing defense on New Year’s Eve.

OVER OF THE WEEK

Ravens / Dolphins OVER 46.5 – FD

• This matchup with feature two of the league’s top 10 offenses by EPA/play – MIA ranks 2nd in the league in offensive efficiency, 3rd in EPA/play, 5th in series conversion rate, 2nd in YPP, 3rd in early down success rate, 8th in 3rd down conversion rate, 1st in passing YPG, 2nd in YPA, 1st in passes of 10+ yards, 5th in rushing YPG, 1st in YPC and 4th in runs of 10+ yards. Baltimore meanwhile ranks 7th in the league in EPA/play, 8th in series conversion rate, 5th in YPP, 1st in early down success rate, 10th in 3rd down conversion rate, 5th in YPA, 1st in rushing YPG, 3rd in YPC and 2nd in runs of 10+ yards.
• These offenses both efficient in the RZ – Baltimore leads the league in RZ trips and ranks 8th in RZ TD %, while Miami ranks 9th in the league in RZ trips and 3rd in RZ TD %. On the defensive side of the ball, Miami has improved significantly since Jalen Ramsey has returned but does still rank 26th in the league in RZ TD %.
• Baltimore is averaging 33.5 PPG on offense over their L9 and is 6-3 to the OVER in that stretch. Miami meanwhile is averaging 31.5 PPG over their L5 games, two of which came against the Jets’ defense that has given high-octane offenses some fits over the course of this season.
• Miami has ruled Jaylen Waddle OUT and has had a lengthy injury report all week, but it looks like T Terron Armstead, WR Tyreek Hill and RB De’Von Achane will all be good to go in this one. They are a bit banged up on defense as CB Jalen Ramsey popped up on the injury report on Friday with a knee injury that makes him questionable, while S Jevon Holland and CB Xavien Howard are also both listed as questionable. The Dolphins have not played many high-octane offenses in 2023, but Buffalo (48 points), LA Chargers (34 points) and Philly (31 points) have had success moving the ball and posting points against the Dolphins over the course of the season – they have a strong running partner in Baltimore to get points on the board throughout this game.
• Baltimore’s defensive prowess is the elephant in the room here, as they rank 1st in defensive efficiency, 2nd in EPA/play, 2nd in YPP allowed and 3rd in both series conversion rate and early down success rate. The counter to that is that they also rank 3rd in the league in TO’s forced per game, which could provide some short fields for Baltimore’s offense if they can force turnovers in the same fashion that they did against SF on Christmas night.
• This matchup is going to be among the best on the Sunday slate – expect these offenses to move the ball early and often and take OVER 46.5.

MODEL PICKS

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