We are here on a weekly basis to provide you with impartial matchup analysis to navigate each week and make informed, data-driven decisions with the latest information at hand. We rely on our game and player matchup analysis dashboards that provide a concise overview of a team’s strengths and weaknesses at every level of the game and produce advantage insights by identifying key mismatches in the trenches, at the skill positions and in the secondary that will have a significant impact on game results across the league each week.
Mismatches That Will Impact Game Results in Week 18
- The total in the Patriots / Jets matchup is shockingly low at 30.5, but for good reason, as this matchup will feature two offenses that are among the league’s 5 worst and two defenses that garde among the league’s top 10. New England ranks 29th in EPA/play, 30th in series conversion rate, 29th in YPP, 30th in 3rd down conversion rate and 31st in RZ trips, while the Jets rank 32nd in offensive efficiency, EPA/play, series conversion rate, early down success rate, 3rd down conversion rate and RZ TD %. On the opposite side of the ball, the Patriots have hung in there in 2023 despite losing Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez; they rank 2nd in defensive efficiency, 5th in YPP allowed, 5th in rushing YPG, 2nd in YPC allowed and 2nd in runs of 10+. The Jets meanwhile rank 7th in defensive efficiency, 2nd in series conversion rate, 3rd in YPP allowed and 3rd in early down success rate.
- This could be Bill Bellichick’s last game as head coach of the New England Patriots – if he is going out, he’s surely going to want to take down the Jets one last time at home; NE has beat the Jets 15 straight times. NE posted 358 yards of total offense on the Jets in Week 3 but somehow managed to log 0 RZ trips.
- New England has been excellent in run defense, ranking 5th in rushing YPG, 2nd in YPC allowed and 2nd in runs of 10+ yards allowed, now facing a Jets’ rushing attack that ranks 28th in rushing YPG and 28th in runs of 10+. The Jets ran for 38 total yards on 22 carries against the Patriots in Week 3.
- Arizona has the opportunity to play spoiler against a Seattle team whose playoff chances look bleak but not gone. The Cardinals rank 5th in the league in RZ TD % with an excellent matchup against a Seahawks defense that ranks 26th in RZ TD % allowed; Arizona finished 4-6 on RZ trips against Philly’s 30th ranked RZ defense in Week 17. The Cardinals are also excellent in the run game, ranking 6th in rushing YPG, 4th in YPC and 4th in runs of 10+ yards allowed with an excellent matchup against a Seattle run defense that ranks 30th in the league in rushing YPG allowed, 24th in YPC allowed and 23rd in runs of 10+.
- Atlanta heads into Week 18 in a must-win matchup with an explosive running game that ranks 8th in rushing YPG and 5th in runs of 10+ yards against a Saints’ defense that ranks 28th in YPC allowed and 30th in runs of 10+ yards allowed. In their first meeting with the Saints in Week 11, the Falcons ran for a total of 228 yards on the ground, thanks to strong performances from Bijan Robinson (16 carries, 91 yards) and Tyler Allegier (10 carries, 64 yards).
- Dallas needs to beat the Commanders to preserve their NFC East lead and a division title, and will have an excellent matchup against a Commanders’ defense that ranks 30th in EPA/play, 26th in series conversion rate, 31st in YPP allowed, 30th in passing YPG allowed, 31st in YPA allowed and 25th in passes of 10+ yards allowed. Dallas meanwhile ranks 4th in EPA/play, 7th in YPP, 3rd in passing YPG, 6th in YPA and 4th in passes of 10+ yards. Dak Prescott threw for 331 yards and 4 TD’s on 22-32 passing in his first matchup with the Commanders and should be able to light this secondary up, though he will be on the road and not in friendly confines of AT&T Stadium.
- Chicago is on a 5-1 tear ATS in their L6 and is playing some good football over the last month plus of the regular season; they have an excellent rushing attack that ranks 2nd in the league in rushing YPG, 6th in YPC and 1st in runs of 10+ yards with an excellent matchup against a Packers’ defense that ranks 28th in rushing YPG, 23rd in YPC and 29th in runs of 10+ yards allowed. Khalil Herbert has been excellent for the Bears over the L2 weeks, going for 112 yards and 124 yards against the Cardinals (31st in rushing YPG allowed) and Falcons (16th in rushing YPG allowed) respectively.
- The faceoff for the AFC East title between the Dolphins and Bills will feature two of the most explosive and efficient offenses in football – Miami ranks 2nd in the league in offensive efficiency, EPA/play and YPP, 3rd in early down success rate, 1st in passing YPG, 2nd in YPA, 1st in passes of 10+ yards, 5th in rushing YPG, 1st in YPC, 6th in runs of 10+ yards allowed, 3rd in RZ TD % and 9th in RZ trips. Buffalo meanwhile ranks 6th in offensive efficiency, 3rd in EPA/play, 5th in YPP, 4th in early down success rate, 1st in 3rd down conversion rate, 7th in YPA, 7th in rushing YPG, 7th in YPC, 8th in runs of 10+ yards allowed, 2nd in RZ TD % and 4th in RZ trips. Most importantly of all, the Bills will face a Dolphins’ defense that ranks 29th in RZ TD % and allowed Baltimore to go 5-5 on RZ trips in Week 17 and Buffalo to finish 5-6 on RZ trips in Week 3. Baltimore and Buffalo combined for 106 points against this defense in their two meetings.
Matchups in the Trenches
- Buffalo has the top-rated OL by pass protection with a matchup in Week 18 on SNF against a MIA pass rush that ranks 3rd in the league in sacks. The Dolphins only sacked Josh Allen twice in their Week 4 matchup in Buffalo, and Josh Allen threw for 320 yards and 4 TD’s on 21-25 passing, leading the Bills to 48 points. Miami could be in for another long day if they can’t apply pressure on Allen in the showdown for the AFC East title.
- GB’s offensive efficiency has steadily climbed over the L6 weeks of the season, thanks to Jordan Love’s progression but also their OL’s ability to protect him; GB ranks 3rd in the league in sacks allowed, facing a Chicago pass rush that ranks 30th in the league in sacks on the season. Green Bay hasn’t faced Chicago since Week 1, but the Bears sacked Jordan Love just once and allowed Love to throw for 245 yards and 3 TD’s and allowed 38 points.
- Philly needs a convincing win badly heading into the playoffs, and has an excellent opportunity to get one against the Giants at MetLife on Sunday against a pass rush that ranks 30th in the league in sacks allowed. Jalen Hurts was sacked just once in Week 16 and threw for 301 yards, a TD and an INT on 24-38 passing against the Giants two weeks ago behind a Philly OL that ranks 10th in sacks allowed.
- TB needs a win to clinch the NFC South title and will have an opportunity to put pressure on Bryce Young behind a Panthers’ OL that ranks 30th in the league in sacks allowed. The Bucs’ 10th ranked pass rush got to Bryce Young 4 times and held him to just 178 yards and an INT on 15-31 passing in Week 13. Bryce Young was sacked 6 times against JAX last week and finished with just 119 yards on 19-32 passing; he has been sacked at least 4 times in 8 of his L10 games.
Red Zone Matchup Analysis
- Despite their issues on the defensive side of the ball, Philly can still move the ball on offense and ranks 8th in the league in RZ trips and 10th in RZ TD %. Philly logged 5 RZ trips against the Giants in Week 16 but finished just 2-5; if they can duplicate their success getting there and execute once they do, they will have an opportunity to open up the game against the Giants in Week 18. Jalen Hurts has rushed for a TD in 9 of his L12 games and has 12 TD’s in that stretch.
- The Falcons will face the Saints with a playoff berth on the line, though they’ll both need some help from the Panthers to make the postseason. ATL’s offense has been erratic all season and ranks just 24th in RZ trips and 27th in RZ TD %, facing a Saints’ defense that ranks 4th in RZ trips allowed. The Falcons finished just 1-2 in the RZ in their previous matchup with the Saints, while New Orleans themselves finished 0-5.
Player Props of the Week
James Conner O68.5 Rushing Yards, FD
- James Conner has an excellent matchup in Week 18 against a Seattle run defense that ranks 30th in the league in rushing YPG allowed, 24th in YPC allowed and 23rd in runs of 10+ and just allowed the Steelers to run for 202 yards and 3 TD’s on 46 carries in Week 17. The Seahawks are allowing opponents to run for 170 yards on average over the L6 weeks, which bodes well for James Connor, who is the feature back in an Arizona offense that ranks 6th in rushing YPG, 4th in YPC and 4th in runs of 10+ yards allowed.
- Conner is averaging 91 rushing YPG over his L4 games and has cleared this number in 3 of his L4 games, particularly impressive considering he did so against SF (top-ranked rushing defense by YPG allowed at the time) and Philly (8th ranked rushing defense at the time) in 2 of the L3 weeks; the only time he did not do so was in Week 16 against Chicago’s top-ranked rushing defense that allows opponents to rush for just 85 YPG in total.
- Najee Harris (27 carries, 122 yards, 2 TD’s), Jaylen Warren (13 carries, 75 yards), Derrick Henry (19 carries, 88 yards, 1 TD), D’Andre Swift (18 carries, 74 yards), Christian McCaffrey (16 carries, 145 yards), Royce Freeman (17 carries, 73 yards) and Keaton Mitchell (9 carries, 138 yards, 1 TD) have all cleared this number over the L9 weeks of the regular season. Take Conner O68.5 rushing yards in this one.
Bijan Robinson O56.5 Rushing Yards, DKNG
- Bijan Robinson will face a Saints’ run defense that ranks 28th in YPC allowed and 30th in runs of 10+ yards allowed as the feature back in a Falcons’ offense that ranks 8th in rushing YPG and 5th in runs of 10+ yards. Robinson has logged double digit carries in 8 of his L9 games and has cleared this number in 4 of his L7, including a Week 11 matchup in which he took 16 carries for 91 yards against the Saints earlier in the year.
- Over their L9 games, the Saints are allowing opponents to rush for 141 yards on average and have allowed opponents to go for at least 133 in 6 of 9 games in that stretch. Kyren Williams (22 carries, 104 yards, 1 TD), Chuba Hubbard (23 carries, 87 yards), Miles Sanders (10 carries, 74 yards), Jahmyr Gibbs (8 carries, 60 yards), D’Onta Foreman (20 carries, 83 yards), Jonathan Taylor (12 carries, 95 yards) and Zack Moss (11 carries, 66 yards) have all cleared this number in that stretch.
- Robinson is tied with Raheem Mostert for 3rd in the league in rushes of 10+ yards and tied for 4th in the league in rushes of 20+ yards and 8th among RB’s in explosive rush rate, facing a Saints run defense that ranks 30th in runs of 10+ yards allowed.
- Taylor Heinicke is questionable and has been limited by an ankle injury all week – if he plays, Atlanta will likely try to get the ball into Robinson’s hands quickly, and considering that the Saints rank 7th in passing YPG allowed and 8th in YPA, they’ll be likely to do so via the running game. Take Robinson O56.5 yards in this one.
OVER OF THE WEEK
DOLPHINS / BILLS OVER 48.5 – FD
- Once again, the Miami Dolphins will be playing in a game with two of the most highly efficient offenses in football on the field. Miami ranks 2nd in the league in offensive efficiency, EPA/play and YPP, 3rd in early down success rate, 1st in passing YPG, 2nd in YPA, 1st in passes of 10+ yards, 5th in rushing YPG, 1st in YPC, 6th in runs of 10+ yards allowed, 3rd in RZ TD % and 9th in RZ trips. Buffalo ranks 6th in offensive efficiency, 3rd in EPA/play, 5th in YPP, 4th in early down success rate, 1st in 3rd down conversion rate, 7th in YPA, 7th in rushing YPG, 7th in YPC, 8th in runs of 10+ yards allowed, 2nd in RZ TD % and 4th in RZ trips.
- Buffalo has excelled in moving the ball into its opponent’s RZ, ranking 4th in RZ trips and 2nd in RZ TD %; they will face a Dolphins’ defense that ranks 29th in RZ TD % and allowed Baltimore to go 5-5 on RZ trips in Week 17 and Buffalo to finish 5-6 on RZ trips in Week 3. Baltimore and Buffalo combined for 106 points against this defense in their two meetings against the Dolphins thus far in 2023.
- If Buffalo has a weakness on the defensive side of the ball, it is in the ground game – they rank 15th in rushing YPG and 27th in YPC allowed. Miami excels in running the football, ranking 1st in the league in YPC and 6th in runs of 10+ yards allowed. De’Von Achane ran for 101 yards and 2 TD’s on just 8 carries in Miami’s first meeting with Buffalo in Week 4
- Miami has had an extensive injury report all week; they will be without OLB Bradley Chubb and CB Xavien Howard, which will be an issue against Buffalo’s high-octane offensive attack. RB Raheem Mostert DNP on Wednesday and Thursday but was a LP on Friday.
- These two teams posted 68 total points of offense, 807 total yards of offense, 561 yards passing and finished a combined 8-10 on RZ trips in Week 4; good offense beats good defense in today’s NFL, and this has the opportunity to be the case once again in Miami. Take the OVER 48.5 in this one.
MODEL PICKS
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