With Week 1 in the books, the airwaves are ripe with overreactions. We are here on a weekly basis to provide you with impartial matchup analysis to navigate each week and make informed, data-driven decisions with the latest information at hand. We rely on our game and player matchup analysis dashboards that provide a concise overview of a team’s strengths and weaknesses at every level of the game and produce advantage insights by identifying key mismatches in the trenches, at the skill positions and in the secondary that will have a significant impact on game results across the league each week.
Positional Mismatches that Will Impact Game Results in Week 2:
- Jets bad offensive line against Dallas’ top-3 pass rush; Dallas sacked Daniel Jones 7 times in Week 1 and allowed him to throw for just 104 yards. Zach Wilson is expected to be under significant pressure all day on Sunday and will likely not have many opportunities to push the ball down the field.
- New England’s commitment to running the football against Miami’s rush defense that was gashed for 234 yards on the ground in Week 1; Stevenson out-snapped Zeke by a margin of 58-28 and caught 6 balls for 64 yards
- Detroit’s high-flying passing offense against Seattle’s banged up secondary that allowed Matt Stafford, Tutu Atwell and Puka Nacua to amass 334 yards and 18 passes of 10+ yards in Week 1; CB Devon Witherspoon was a full participant on Thursday (DNP Week 1), while Jamal Adams was limited. Goff threw for 378 yards and 4 TD’s at home vs Seattle in 2022.
- New Orleans’ high-performing defense that finished 9th in EPA/play, 3rd in YPP, 5th in sacks per game and 2nd in RZ trips per game against rookie Bryce Young, who finished 20-38 passing for just 146 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT’s in his debut. Young did not complete a pass over 14 yards, while New Orleans intercepted Tannehill 3 times
- Sam Howell in altitude against a Denver defense that finished 7th in EPA/play, 6th in YPP allowed and 3rd in RZ trips allowed, behind an OL that allowed Howell to be sacked 6 times in Week 1 and with a rushing attack that mustered just 3.3 YPC and 0 runs over 10 yards
- Atlanta’s 3-pronged rushing attack (Allgeier, Bijan Robinson, Cordarrelle Patterson) against a Green Bay defense that ranked 26th in the league in rushing YPG and 27th in YPC in 2022 and allowed Chicago to rush for 122 yards on the ground in Week 1; Atlanta is committed to the run in Arthur Smith’s scheme and finished 3rd in rushing YPG and 6th in YPC in 2022
- Chargers’ passing attack against a Tennessee secondary that ranked 32nd in passing YPG, 25th in YPA and 30th in explosive passing plays in 2022 that is banged up to start the season; Herbert should continue to progress in Kellen Moore’s offense and will have an opportunity to open it up on the road in Tennessee in Week 2
Injury Situations to Monitor Heading into Week 2:
- Two starters on the New England OL, Trent Brown and Sidy Sow, did not practice on Friday and likely will not play on Sunday night against Miami. New England’s top corner Jonathan Jones, who has been instrumental in coverage against Tyreek Hill over the years, also did not participate in practice on Friday, which puts his status in doubt.
- Seattle is down a starting tackle after they placed RT Abe Lucas on IR – they also announced on Friday that LT Charles Cross will be out on Sunday. This is not a good development against a Detroit front 7 that logged significant pressure on Mahomes in Week 1 in Arrowhead – Aidan Hutchinson alone logged four hurries and three QB hits in the opener.
- KC announced on Friday that Travis Kelce and Chris Jones will both be active on Sunday in Jacksonville.
- Tennessee is banged up at key positions heading into Sunday – S Amani Hooker DNP on Thursday, while CB Kristian Fulton was a limited participant dealing with a hamstring injury. WR DeAndre Hopkins DNP Thursday after suffering an ankle injury against New Orleans.
- Austin Ekeler DNP on Thursday and will likely be out against Tennessee.
- Green Bay is banged up on both sides of the ball – Aaron Jones and Christian Watson’s availabilities are both in jeopardy, while LB Quay Walker was a limited participant on Thursday. His presence would be key in defending Atlanta’s run game.
- WR Jakobi Meyers is out for Week 2 against Buffalo.
- Baltimore will be down two starters with OT Ronnie Stanley and C Tyler Linderbaum both OUT on Sunday vs Cincy.
- DT Cam Heyward is going to miss an extended period of time after leaving Pittsburgh’s Week 1 matchup against San Fran early. Pittsburgh is going to have issues defending Chubb and the Browns’ run game without Hayward’s presence.
TEASER OF THE WEEK
Two team, 6-point teaser:
SF -7 -> -1 @ LAR
BUF -8.5 -> -2.5 vs LV
- San Fran absolutely dominated the Steelers on the road to kick off the season, outgaining Pittsburgh by a margin of 391-239, forcing 2 turnovers and holding Pittsburgh to just 41 yards rushing. SF logged 5 sacks, 8 tackles for loss and 9 QB hits. The 49ers were a top 5 defense in 2022, ranking 6th in sacks and 7th in QB hits and 4th in both YPP and EPA/play. The Rams surprised many in Week 1 with a 30-13 victory over the Seahawks, but they’re going to be facing a much tougher pass rush and secondary in Week 2 with an offensive line that was among the worst in the league a season ago. There will be a significant 49ers presence in the crowd. San Fran has defeated in 6 of their last 7 matchups dating back to 2020. Puka Nacua is questionable for Sunday, which leaves an extremely thin WR corps for Stafford as the Rams look to get Cooper Kupp back on the field ASAP.
- Buffalo will host the Raiders in their home opener with a much different defensive matchup than the one they faced in Week 1 against the Jets. The Jets ranked in the top 5 in many key categories in 2022 (2nd in YPP, 2nd in passing YPG & explosive passing plays allowed, 4th in RZ TD %, 3rd in RZ trips per game and 7th in sacks). The Raiders conversely were among the league’s worst defenses in 2022, ranking 29th in EPA/play, 27th in YPP, 29th in passing YPG allowed, 23rd in explosive passing plays allowed, 30th in RZ TD % and 30th in sacks per game. It’s not surprising to see the Bills struggle in Week 1, but this is a get right spot for a roster that still is among the league’s elite against a Raiders’ team that is playing their second straight road game on the east coast with a 1pm kick. Jakobi Meyers is doubtful. The Bills get right in this game and win by more than a field goal.
UNDER OF THE WEEK
CINCY / BALTIMORE UNDER 46
- Baltimore suffered significant injuries to their offensive line, losing OT Ronnie Stanley and C Tyler Linderbaum to injuries in Week 1; neither starter will play in Week 2 against Cincy.
- Baltimore’s offense looked disjointed in Week 1 against an average Houston defense in their first action in OC Todd Monken’s new offense. They also lost JK Dobbins to a season-ending Achilles injury, which is a blow to their rushing attack that will now rely on Justice Hill and Gus Edwards. The Ravens posted just 265 yards of total offense and 155 yards passing against Houston in Week 1.
- Cincy’s defense finished 2nd in EPA/play in 2022 and was excellent against the run, ranking 7th in rushing yards allowed and 5th in YPC. Baltimore should have a tough time against this front down two starters on the offensive line, their top RB and potentially Mark Andrews, who was a limited participant in practice on Thursday.
- The Ravens defensively present issues for Cincy after finishing 3rd in our defensive efficiency rankings in 2022, 3rd in rushing YPG and YPC allowed, 5th in sacks and 3rd in RZ TD%. They have an excellent front 7 that should be able to apply pressure on Joe Burrow, who is still working his way back from a calf strain, threw for just 82 yards and is still working through his timing with the WR corps early in the season. That said, the Ravens have concerns on the back end of their defense, as CB Marlon Humphrey and S Marcus Williams both DNP on Thursday and are in doubt for Sunday’s game.
- All this considered, Burrow, Chase and company may be able to exploit Baltimore’s secondary in some spots if the Ravens’ pass rush can’t get home, but Cincy once again has moving pieces on the OL that have contributed to their early season struggles the last two seasons. Lamar was under significant pressure in Week 1 against Houston and will have issues in the pocket in Week 2 down two starters at critical spots at OT and C. Baltimore struggles on offense, while Burrow continues to shake off rust from limited preseason action against a high-performing Baltimore pass rush that will need to get home to help their secondary. Take the UNDER 46 in this one.
Head over to our Dashboard section of the site to comb through game matchup dashboards for every game on the board in Week 2, and browse our Player Matchup Analysis dashboards to optimize your DFS / FF lineups and target the player prop markets.
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