We are here on a weekly basis to provide you with impartial matchup analysis to navigate each week and make informed, data-driven decisions with the latest information at hand. We rely on our game and player matchup analysis dashboards that provide a concise overview of a team’s strengths and weaknesses at every level of the game and produce advantage insights by identifying key mismatches in the trenches, at the skill positions and in the secondary that will have a significant impact on game results across the league each week.
Mismatches that Will Impact Game Results in Week 5
- Pittsburgh lacks an offensive identity with a horrible matchup against one of the league’s best defenses in Baltimore in Week 5. Pittsburgh ranks 31st in EPA/play, 32nd in series conversion rate, 26th in YPP, 32nd in early down success rate, 24th in passing YPG, 27th in passes of 10+ yards, 29th in rushing YPG and 24th in YPC. They’re facing the Ravens’ defense that ranks 4th in defensive efficiency, 3rd in EPA/play, 1st in YPP allowed, 1st in passing YPA, 7th in rushing YPG and YPC, 5th in RZ trips allowed per game, 3rd in RZ TD %, 4th in sacks per game and 8th in turnovers forced.
- Arizona has significantly outperformed preseason expectations this season and has succeeded in running the ball with James Conner – they rank 5th in rushing YPG, 2nd in YPC and 6th in runs of 10+ yards with an excellent matchup against a Bengals’ defense that ranks 31st in rushing YPG allowed, 29th in YPC and 32nd in runs of 10+ yards allowed.
- Matthew Stafford has been excellent through the air through the first month of the season, ranking 2nd in passing YPG with over 307, 9th in YPA and 2nd in passes of 10+ yards, all in the absence of Cooper Kupp, who looks like he’ll be back in Week 5 against Philly. The Eagles are 4-0 but have been susceptible in the passing game, ranking 28th in passing YPG allowed and 27th in passes of 10+ yards.
- Miami’s offense came back down to earth in Week 4 on the road in Buffalo, but they’ll have a great opportunity to get things moving again in Week 5 against a Giants’ defense that’s been very suspect thus far. Miami ranks 1st in offensive efficiency, passing YPG, rushing YPG and 3rd in sacks allowed, facing a Giants defense that ranks 25th in the league in rushing YPG allowed and 26th in rushes of 10+ yards allowed. This has the making of big games for Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane.
Matchups in the Trenches
- Miami will go from facing a top 3-pass rush in the league to a bottom-3 pass rush in Week 5, which should present Tua with plenty of time and opportunity to sit in the pocket and pick apart this Giants’ secondary that ranks 24th in YPA and YPP and 30th in EPA/play.
- SF’s stout pass protection will have their hands full against Dallas’ high-powered pass rush in Week 5. Purdy looked generally uncomfortable against Dallas the last time these teams met in the NFC Divisional Round, where he finished 19-29 for 214 yards (7.4 YPA), no TD’s or INT’s and 2 sacks.
- Trevor Lawrence will be facing Buffalo’s top-ranked pass rush that got home to Tua 4 times in Week 4 and has racked up 16 sacks in 4 games. Von Miller is making the trip to London with the team after practicing twice this week with no issues, giving him an opportunity to play in Week 5. Trevor Lawrence has only faced one top 10 pass rush this season (Indy). Otherwise the Jags have faced the Chiefs (19th in pass rush), Texans (26th) and Atlanta (30th).
- Jordan Love has been brutal in the first half of every game with the exception of the Bears game in Week 1, but he should have some extended time in the pocket in Week 5 against a Raiders’ pass rush that ranks 26th in the league in sacks.
- Ryan Tannehill is playing behind an inexperienced OL that ranks 27th in the league in sacks allowed, facing a Colts’ defense line that ranks 5th in the league in sacks that was able to take CJ Stroud down 6 times in Week 2 behind a revolving door of an offensive line and get home to the elusive Lamar Jackson down 4 times in Week 3.
- Bryce Young has not been particularly impressive thus far in 2023 – it could be in part due to the lack of speed the Panthers have at the receiver position and the lack of protection he’s getting behind an OL that ranks 25th in sacks allowed and 28th in QB hits allowed. Carolina will be facing an improved Lion’s defense that ranks 7th in sacks per game that took Jordan Love down 5 times in Week 4 and Desmond Ridder 7 times in Week 3.
- Kenny Pickett got banged up in Week 4 against Houston and will now be facing Baltimore’s top 5 pass rush that sacked the opposing QB at least four times in three of their first four games and ranks top 5 in the league in nearly every metric our matchup dashboard tracks – 4th in defensive efficiency, 3rd in EPA/play, 1st in YPP, 7th in passing YPG, 5th in RZ trips per game and 8th in turnovers per game.
Over of the Week
Dolphins / Giants – OVER 47.5
- Miami is going to have an opportunity to bounce back after a disappointed performance in Week 4 against Buffalo matched up against a Giants’ defense that ranks 27th in our defensive efficiency metrics, 30th in EPA/play and 24th in YPP. They struggle to defend the run, ranking 25th in rushing YPG allowed and 26th in runs of 10+ yards, which is going to be a significant issue against a Dolphins’ rushing attack that ranks 1st in the league in rushing YPG and 2nd in runs of 10+ yards.
- Miami ranks 3rd in RZ trips per game and 2nd in RZ TD conversion rate, while the Giants rank 28th in RZ trips allowed per game. The Giants have amassed just 4 sacks through the first month of the season and will be facing a Miami offense that has protected Tua well (albeit he is getting the ball out extremely quickly), ranking 3rd in the league in sacks allowed and 2nd in QB hits allowed.
- The Giants’ offense has been brutal thus far this season off a week where they allowed Daniel Jones to be sacked 11 times against Seattle, but all things considered, they’ve faced premium defenses in the Cowboys and 49ers in two of the first four weeks of the season. They’ll be facing a Miami defense that is allowing 29.8 points per game and ranks 26th in defensive efficiency, 29th in EPA/play allowed, 29th in YPP, 28th in 3rd down conversion rate, 25th in passing YPG allowed and 23rd in YPC. The Dolphins rank 30th in RZ trips allowed per game and 27th in RZ TD %.
- Daniel Jones looks like he’ll be missing 3 offensive linemen who DNP on Thursday, but has a chance to get Saquon Barkley back in the mix.
- Daniel Jones unsurprisingly struggled against the Cowboys and 49ers in Weeks 1 and 3 respectively – virtually every quarterback in the league is going to do so. In Week 2 against a Cardinals defense that ranks 28th in YPP allowed and EPA/play, 30th in 3rd down conversion rate, 29th in YPA and 31st in passes of 10+ yards allowed, Jones finished 26-37 for 321 yards, 2 TD’s and 1 INT along with 59 yards on the ground and a TD on 9 carries, leading the Giants to 31 points of offense.
- In summary, we have two very suspect defenses on the field, a premium offense in the Dolphins and a Giants’ offense that has yet to find its footing through four weeks but has an opportunity to do so against a Miami defense that is not grading very well at all through the first month of the season. Miami should have their way on the offensive side of the ball, and we expect some positive regression for a Giants’ offense in Week 5 against a bottom 10 defense.
AFC North Side of the Week
Ravens -4 @ Steelers
- The Ravens and Steelers historically play close games, and this is a spot where you’re swallowing points as a road favorite, but the gap between Baltimore and Pittsburgh through the first month of the season is wide here. Lamar missed both matchups with the Steelers in 2022 and has not faced Pittsburgh since November of 2021 when Ben Roethlisberger was still running the offense.
- Baltimore enters this game 3-1 off a 28-3 win over the Cleveland Browns (missing Deshaun Watson) that racked up 296 yards of total offense and finished 4-4 in the red zone against a Cleveland defense that has graded as one of the best units in the league through the first month of the season.
- The Steelers enter this game with zero offensive identity off a 30-6 loss on the road at the Texans in which they logged 63 yards of total offense on 24 plays in the first half and did not enter Houston territory until the first drive of the second half. Pittsburgh ranks 5th in offensive efficiency, 31st in EPA/play, 26th in YPP, 32nd in early down success rate, 24th in passing YPG, 29th in rushing YPG and 32nd in RZ trips per game.
- The Steelers have scored just 4 offensive touchdowns through 4 games, two of which came against a Raiders’ defense that ranks 30th in defensive efficiency and 27th in EPA/play. They’ll be facing a much more talented unit on Sunday in Baltimore, which ranks 4th in defensive efficiency, 3rd in EPA/play, 1st in YPP allowed, 7th in passing YPG allowed and rushing YPG allowed, 5th in RZ trips allowed per game, 4th in sacks per game and 8th in QB hits per game.
- Baltimore’s injury report has been lengthy over the last few weeks, but they’re getting healthier heading into this matchup – Rashod Bateman was a full participant on Wednesday, while Odell Beckham Jr. and CB Marlon Humphrey were both limited. Humphrey has yet to play this season and is one of the better corners in the league.
- Pittsburgh meanwhile should have Pickett back after he suffered a bone bruise against Houston, but will likely be without TE Pat Freiermuth who suffered a hamstring injury in Week 4.
- On the offensive side of the ball, Baltimore turned in a dud in Week 3 in the rain against Indy but grades well on paper across the board, ranking 10th in EPA/play, 5th in early down success rate, 4th in rushing YPG, 1st in runs of 10+ yards and 8th in RZ trips per game. Their high-powered rushing attack will be matching up with a Steelers run defense that ranks 28th in rushing YPG allowed and YPC that’s missing DT Cam Hayward badly in the middle of their DL.
- Baltimore is getting healthier on both sides of the ball with a capable offense that can run the ball and a top 5 defense that’s getting their best corner back on the field matched up against a Pittsburgh offense that doesn’t do anything well at the moment and couldn’t get the ball over midfield until the second half against Houston in Week 4. Baltimore is a blue chip team in the AFC and wins by a touchdown plus in this one.
Head over to our Dashboard section of the site to comb through game matchup dashboards for every game on the board in Week 5, and browse our Player Matchup Analysis dashboards to optimize your DFS / FF lineups and target the player prop markets.
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