Around the NFL: Week 6 Preview

We are here on a weekly basis to provide you with impartial matchup analysis to navigate each week and make informed, data-driven decisions with the latest information at hand. We rely on our game and player matchup analysis dashboards that provide a concise overview of a team’s strengths and weaknesses at every level of the game and produce advantage insights by identifying key mismatches in the trenches, at the skill positions and in the secondary that will have a significant impact on game results across the league each week.

Mismatches that Will Impact Game Results in Week 6

• The Jets are going to be facing an uphill battle in a number of facets in what could be some windy conditions and precipitation at MetLife against the Eagles. At a high level, the Jets offense enters this one ranked 28th in offensive efficiency and 27th in EPA/play, facing an Eagles defense that ranks 7th in EPA/play and 10th in YPP. The Jets rank 21st in sacks allowed per game and 23rd in QB hits allowed through 5 weeks and will be missing Alijah Vera-Tucker, facing an Eagles DL that ranks 8th in sacks and 5th in QB hits. On the offensive side of the ball, the Eagles’ are finding their identity and continue to run a scheme predicated on the running game – they rank 2nd in the league in rushing YPG, facing an NYJ defense that ranks 29th in rushing YPG allowed, 25th in YPC and 28th in runs of 10+ yards.
• Baltimore’s ability to catch passes, not their defense, has been their issue early in the season. Baltimore enters this matchup ranked 2nd in defensive efficiency and YPP allowed and is defending the pass well, ranking 7th in passing YPG allowed, 1st in YPA and 9th in passes of 10+ yards. They also rank 4th in the league in sacks, facing a Titans offense that ranks 25th in passing YPG, 24th in passes of 10+ yards, 27th in sacks allowed per game and 25th in QB hits allowed. Baltimore also excels in defending the run, ranking 8th in rushing YPG and YPC with Derrick Henry up next (TEN ranks just 18th in rushing YPG and YPC through 5 weeks) – Tennessee is not a prolific offense and enters this one with a difficult matchup against a talented BAL defense, entering this Week 5 London game 4-1 to the UNDER.
• On the opposite side of the ball in London, Baltimore’s offense has sputtered at times early this season and ranks just 18th in offensive efficiency. They rely heavily on the run, ranking 4th in rushing YPG and 2nd in runs of 10+ yards, but are matched up against a TEN run defense that ranks 10th in rushing YPG allowed, 7th in YPC and 8th in runs of 10+ yards allowed. The Ravens are also 4-1 to the UNDER thus far this season.
• Cooper Kupp is back for the Rams and made an immediate impact in Week 5, catching 8 balls for 118 yards on 12 targets; Puka Nacua still maintained a strong target share with Kupp’s return, catching 7 balls for 71 yards and 1 TD on 11 targets. LAR enters this Week 6 matchup with the Cardinals ranking 4th in passing YPG and 2nd in passes of 10+ yards allowed, facing an ARI secondary that ranks 27th in passing YPG allowed and YPA and 31st in passes of 10+ yards allowed. Arizona has been shredded this season in the passing game. In the last two weeks, Joe Burrow threw for 317 yards and 3 TD’s and found Jamar Chase 15 t imes for 192 yards and 3 TD’s on 19 targets, while Brock Purdy passed for 283 yards on just 21 total attempts and 1 TD and found Brandon Aiyuk 6 times for 148 yards.
• Miami and their top ranked rushing attack that is averaging nearly 186 yarsd on the ground will host the Panthers’ run defense that ranks 26th in rushing YPG and 28th in YPC and runs of 10+ yards. With De’Von Achane on the IR, Raheem Mostert should have opportunities to lead this backfield in an excellent spot against a Panthers’ defense that has allowed Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson to go for 131 yards on 25 carries in Week, Tayson Hill, Tony Jones Jr. and Jamaal Williams to combine for 141 yards on 30 carries in Week 2, Kenneth Walker II and Zach Charbonnet to combine for 143 yards on 27 carries in Week 3, Alexander Mattison and Cam Akers to combine for 135 yards on 22 carries in Week 4 and David Montgomery and Craig Reynolds to go for 163 yards on 26 carries in Week 5
• Tampa Bay has struggled to run the ball in 2023, ranking 25th in rushing YPG, 31st in YPC and 28th in runs of 10+ yards; they’ll be facing a Detroit defense that has been excellent against the run, ranking 3rd in rushing YPG allowed, 2nd in YPC and 5th in runs of 10+ yards. Tampa’s offense is going to need to rely heavily on Baker in this matchup.
• Atlanta’s offense is heavily predicated on the run game with Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson leading the way; they’ll be facing a Washington run defense that ranks 24th in rushing YP and runs of 10+ yards allowed and 27th in YPC. Washington has an excellent front 7 that excels in getting after the QB, ranking 7th in sacks per game and 9th in QB hits per game; they also struggle to defend QB scrambles and rank 32nd in the league in QB rushing yards allowed. Russ (6 carries, 56 yards), Josh Allen (3 carries, 46 yards), Jalen Hurts (9 carries, 34 yards) and Justin Fields (11 carries, 57 yards) have all had success scrambling out of the pocket over the L4 weeks.
• Cincy’s passing metrics are deflated through the first 5 weeks of the season as Joe Burrow has been battling back from a calf injury, but they got back on track in Week 5 against a bad Arizona secondary as Burrow finished with 317 yards and 3 TD’s on 36-46 passing in Week 5. They’ll be facing a Seattle secondary that has been very bad against the pass, ranking 31st in passing YPG allowed with over 305/game and 24th in passes of 10+ yards. The two legitimate passers Seattle have faced, Matthew Stafford (24-38, 334 yards) and Jared Goff (28-35, 323 yards, 3 TD’s), have both had high levels of success moving the ball through the air. Even Andy Dalton finished with 361 yards and 2 TD’s on 34-58 passing playing from behind in Week 3.
• Cleveland enters Week 6 ranking 30th in offensive efficiency, 32nd in EPA/play, 29th in YPP and 27th in series conversion rate with a matchup against SF’s vaunted defense that ranks 7th in defensive efficiency, 8th in EPA/play, 3rd in YPP allowed and 6th in series conversion rate. Cleveland is obviously dealing with the production and efficiency they lost with Nick Chubb’s season-ending knee injury, and now PJ Walker looks to make the start in Deshaun Watson’s place on Sunday where it looks like there will be winds of 18+ MPH off the lake in Cleveland.
• Buffalo’s high-powered offense that ranks 3rd in offensive efficiency, EPA/play, series conversion rate and YPP should have every opportunity to carve up a Giants’ defense that ranks 29th in defensive efficiency, 30th in EPA/play, 27th in series conversion rate and 31st in YPP allowed. Buffalo ranks 4th in the league in 3rd down conversion rate and 2nd in both RZ TD % and RZ trips, while the Giants rank 24th in 3rd down conversion rate, 27th in RZ trips allowed per game and 20th in RZ TD %. Buffalo should be able to sustain success through the air and on the ground, move the chains when necessary on 3rd down and convert RZ trips into TD’s against a Giants defense that is grading extremely poorly across the board.

Matchups in the Trenches

• Arizona has surprisingly protected Josh Dobbs very well in the pocket, ranking 8th in sacks allowed, matching up against a Rams defense that ranks 28th in sacks and 31st in QB hits allowed.
• Josh Allen should have plenty of time in the pocket to distribute the ball around the field behind an OL that ranks 9th in sacks allowed against a Giants’ pass rush that ranks 31st in sacks per game.
• On the opposite side of the ball in Buffalo, the Giants have the worst pass protection in the league, ranking 32nd in sacks allowed, with a matchup against the Bills’ top-ranked pass rush that just got Von Miller back in London against the Jags.
• Ryan Tannehill will be sitting in the pocket behind a Titans OL that ranks 28th in sacks allowed, facing a Ravens’ pass rush that ranks 2nd in sacks per game in London.
• Desmond Ridder has been part of the problem holding the ball too long in the pocket, but the Falcons rank 26th in sacks allowed with a matchup against the Commanders’ front 7 that ranks 5th in sacks.

Red Zone Matchup Analysis

• We’ve covered this at length, but it should not be understated how overmatched the Giants’ defense is against Buffalo’s high-powered offense on the road; Buffalo ranks 2nd in the league in both RZ trips and RZ TD %, matching up against a Giants’ defense that ranks 28th in RZ trips allowed and 20th in RZ TD %.
• Miami (3rd in RZ trips, 1st in RZ TD %)  has an excellent matchup across the board on the offensive side of the ball against Carolina and should have plenty of opportunity to post points inside the RZ against a Carolina defense that ranks 28th in both RZ trips allowed and RZ TD %.
• Cleveland enters Week 6 with their 3rd string QB leading an offense that ranks 30th in RZ trips as it stands, matching up against SF’s defense that ranks 3rd in RZ trips allowed. Without Chubb’s production in the run game, it’s difficult to envision how the Browns are going to manufacture opportunities to score TD’s against SF’s elite defensive unit.

Eagles / Jets U41

• Philly’s defense has been suspect in defending the pass thus far in 2023 but has surged over the past few weeks with strong performances against the Bucs and Rams in recent weeks; they enter this game ranking 7th in EPA/play, 10th in YPP, 4th in early down success rate and are elite against the run, ranking 1st in rushing YPG allowed, 3rd in YPC and 2nd in runs of 10+ yards. Their pass rush is also rounding into form with Jalen Carter dominating the middle of the field; Philly ranks 8th in sacks per game and 5th in QB hits per game.
• The Jets’ defense continues to be strong in 2023, ranking 4th in defensive efficiency, 10th in series conversion rate and 7th in early down success rate.
• Zach Wilson has showed some flashes of an ability to be a professional QB, but NYJ’s offense is not grading well, ranking 28th in offensive efficiency, 27th in EPA/play, 31st in series conversion rate, 32nd in passing YPG, 27th in YPA and 30th in passes of 10+ yards. They are struggling to get into the RZ, ranking 24th in RZ trips and do not excel when they do reach it, ranking 31st in RZ TD %.
• Philly’s offense continues to be predicated on the run game, as they rank 2nd in rushing YPG through 5 weeks with over 164; they are matched up against a NYJ defense that ranks 29th in rushing YPG allowed, 25th in YPC and 28th in runs of 10+ yards.
• Philly’s offense should look to attack NYJ’s weakness in the run game, which should result in some long and deliberate drives that take significant time off the clock. Zach Wilson has a very difficult matchup behind an OL that ranks 21st in sacks allowed and 23rd in QB hits per game that just lost G Alijah Vera-Tucker and is going to struggle in the pocket against Jalen Carter and company.
• There look to be less than ideal offensive conditions in the forecast at MetLife with winds of 15+ MPH. Take the UNDER 41 in this one.

Ravens / Titans U41.5

• The Titans and Ravens head to London a combined 8-2 to the UNDER in 2022 for a multitude of reasons. Through 5 weeks, average scoring output in Ravens (36.8 points on average) and Titans (36.2 points on average) games rank near the bottom of the league
• The Titans lack explosiveness on the offensive side of the ball, ranking 22nd in offensive efficiency, 23rd in series conversion rate, 28th in early down success rate and 24th in 3rd down conversion rate. They do not get out in front of the chains, and when they’re backed against the wall on 3rd down, they are not efficient in moving the chains. TEN also struggles to move the ball through the air and protect the QB, ranking 25th in passing YPG, 24th in passes of 10+ yards, 27th in sacks allowed per game and 25th in QB hits.
• Tennessee is facing a top 5 Baltimore defense that ranks 2nd in defensive efficiency, EPA/play, YPP and early down success rate; they excel in defending both the pass and run and have done an excellent job rushing the QB, ranking 4th in the league in sacks per game. The Titans’ run game has not been great this year behind Derrick Henry, ranking just 18th in rushing YPG and YPC; they’re facing a Ravens’ defense that ranks 8th in rushing YPG allowed. Tennessee ranks 29th in RZ TD conversion rate, while the Ravens’ defense leads the league in RZ TD % on the opposite side of the ball.
• Baltimore has struggled to find a rhythm on offense through the first 5 weeks of the season off a Week 5 in which they recorded 7 drops, including 3 for TD’s. They like to run the ball, ranking 4th in rushing YPG and 2nd in runs of 10+ yards, which happens to be a strength of the Titans’ defense that ranks 10th in rushing YPG, 7th in YPC and 8th in runs of 10+ yards.
• This game is being played in London – the Bills traveled to the UK in Week 5 to take on the Jags and managed just one score in the first half to go with 4 punts, looking extremely flat in the first half and dealing with the implications of traveling across multiple time zones. Baltimore has spent the entire week in London, while the Titans have elected to make the trip after Thursday’s practice.
• In summary we have a well-rounded, top-5 defense in Baltimore, a Tennessee defense that can take the run away from a Ravens offense that likes to do just that, a Titans offense that lacks explosiveness through the air and cannot protect the QB and a Ravens offense that has struggled to find a consistent rhythm in 2023 under their new OC. Take the UNDER 41.5 in this one.

49ers / Browns U36.5

• This matchup will feature two of the top defenses in the league in poor conditions in Cleveland where winds are expected to be 18+ MPH. The Browns enter this matchup ranked 1st in the league nearly every defensive metric we’re tracking above, while the 49ers defense is similarly elite.
• SF just held the Cowboys’ offense to 197 yards of total offense in a Week 5 rout on SNF, and now will be facing a Cleveland offense that enters this matchup without starters Deshaun Watson and Nick Chubb, ranking 30th in offensive efficiency, 32nd in EPA/play, 29th in YPP, 30th in 3rd down conversion rate, 29th in passing YPG and 31st in passes of 10+ yards.
• PJ Walker will get the start in this matchup behind an OL that ranks 29th in sacks allowed and 28th in QB hits allowed and looks like it will be without G Joel Bitonio, who has not practiced this week. Cleveland is not going to have an easy time generating offensive production on the ground without Chubb and against an SF defense that ranks 2nd in rushing YPG allowed, 6th in YPC and 1st in runs of 10+ yards.
• SF’s offense has been extremely efficient thus far in 2023, but they’ll be facing one of their most difficult tests as of yet against Jim Schwartz’s defense that ranks at or near the top of the league in nearly every defensive category we track on our dashboards. In 9 games against Kyle Shanahan, Jim Schwartz is 7-1 and has held Shanahan’s offense to just 20 PPG over those 8 matchups.
• Extremely windy conditions, two elite defenses, a third-string QB and a defensive coordinator who has had Kyle Shanahan’s number and can stop the outside running game of the 49ers all point to the UNDER 36.5 in this one.

Head over to our Dashboard section of the site to comb through game matchup dashboards for every game on the board in Week 6, and browse our Player Matchup Analysis dashboards to optimize your DFS / FF lineups and target the player prop markets.

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