Around the NFL: Week 7 Preview

We are here on a weekly basis to provide you with impartial matchup analysis to navigate each week and make informed, data-driven decisions with the latest information at hand. We rely on our game and player matchup analysis dashboards that provide a concise overview of a team’s strengths and weaknesses at every level of the game and produce advantage insights by identifying key mismatches in the trenches, at the skill positions and in the secondary that will have a significant impact on game results across the league each week.

Mismatches that Will Impact Game Results in Week 7

  • The Seahawks have an excellent matchup against Arizona’s defense that ranks 29th in EPA/play, 27th in YPP, 27th in passing YPG, 29th in YPA and 31st in passes of 10+ yards. Seattle has not been as efficient through the air in 2023 as they were a season ago, but they have an opportunity to get back on track against a secondary that’s grading extremely poorly and is extremely injured – Arizona will be without starting S Jalen Thompson and CB Antonio Hamilton, with several other corners and Budda Baker all listed as questionable. Arizona is allowing opponents to throw for over 266 yards per game through the air and 134 per game on the ground, ranking 32nd in RZ trips allowed in total, which should present opportunities to post points on the board early and often.
  • The Giants’ OL situation continues to get worse – they’ll be without LT Andrew Thomas and C John Michael Schmitz Jr. after they lost Shane Lemieux to the IR this week. RT Evan Neal is also listed as questionable but DNP on Friday. The Giants OL on the season ranks 31st in sacks allowed and 30th in QB hits allowed, facing a Washington front 7 that ranks 8th in sacks and 10th in QB hits per game.
  • The Chiefs have a juicy matchup against the Chargers’ brutal secondary that ranks 32nd in the league in passing YPG allowed (318 YPG), 31st in YPA and 24th in passes of 10+ yards. Mahomes continues to distribute the ball to a wide array of WR’s and Travis Kelce and is leading an offense that ranks 6th in passing YPG, 8th in YPA and 8th in passes of 10+ yards. Derwin James DNP on Friday after popping up with an ankle injury on Thursday, which is a significant issue as he historically covers Kelce. When James missed significant time the last 2-3 seasons, Kelce has torched the Chargers.
  • Denver should look to commit to the run game in Week 7 against a Green Bay run defense that ranks 28th in rushing YPG and 23rd in runs of 10+ yards. The Broncos rank 4th in YPC and 8th in runs of 10+ yards themselves, but have not committed to running the ball on the ground at volume, as they rank 26th in the league in run play percentage.
  • Brian Hoyer will be starting in place of Jimmy G against the Bears, but if he can push the ball down the field to Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, he should be in for a big day against a Bears’ secondary that ranks 28th in passing YPG allowed (276 YPG), 30th in YPA and 29th in passes of 10+ yards. The Raiders passing attack ranks 3rd in passes of 10+ yards through the first 6 weeks of 2023, and Davante Adams voiced his frustration about his usage this week. The Bears will be without S Eddie Jackson, while their other S Jaquan Brisker is questionable as of Saturday.
  • The Rams’ high-powered passing attack will be facing a Pittsburgh secondary that’s been susceptible against the pass in 2023, ranking 26th in passing YPG allowed and 24th in passes of 10+ yards. Stafford is leading a Rams’ offense that ranks 3rd in passing YPG, 7th in YPA and 2nd in passes of 10+ yards and just got Cooper Kupp back two weeks ago. Kupp has caught 15 balls on 21 targets for 266 yards and a TD since he’s returned.
  • Philly will be without their starting S Reed Blankenship and slot CB Bradley Roby heading into a matchup with Miami’s explosive passing offense that ranks 1st in the league in passing YPG, YPA and passes of 10+ yards – Philly’s secondary has been susceptible to big passing plays, ranking 30th in passes of 10+ yards allowed heading into Week 7. Darius Slay missed Week 6 against the Jets, but looks to be back on the field with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle coming into town.
  • SF was without Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams at practice on Friday, which does not look great SF’s offensive prospects against Minnesota on MNF. That said, the 49ers take care of the ball extremely well, ranking 1st in the league in TO’s per game, facing a Vikings defense that ranks 24th in turnovers forced per game. On the defensive side of the ball, the 49ers rank 4th in TO’s forced per game, facing one of the most careless offenses in the league in Minnesota that ranks 31st in TO’s per game. The team that wins the turnover battle wins the game…

Matchups in the Trenches

  • Baker Mayfield will sit back in the pocket behind an OL that’s done a great job protecting him all season, ranking 1st in sacks allowed and 2nd in QB hits allowed, facing a Falcons’ pass rush that ranks 28th in sacks per game.
  • Buffalo’s OL has been excellent in pass protection, ranking 4th in sacks allowed and 3rd in QB hits allowed. NE’s pass rush has been relatively non-existent in 2023, particularly since they’ve lost Matthew Judon – they rank 26th in sacks per game and 29th in QB hits per game.
  • Tua and the Dolphins will face their toughest test of the season against a Philly pass rush that ranks 5th in sacks and 2nd in QB hits per game. Jalen Carter was out against the Jets in Week 6, but he’ll be back on the field and has been among the league’s best pass rushers in his rookie season when active.
  • Detroit’s OL has been stout in pass protection, ranking 6th in sacks allowed, but will be facing the Ravens’ top-ranked pass rush in Week 7 on the road. Goff has faced a top-5 pass rush just once this season against Seattle at home in Week 2 – he finished 28-35 for 323 yards and 3 TD’s. That said, this matchup will take place on the road where Goff has not been as efficient in his career, in subpar conditions where winds are expected to be 15+ MPH.
  • The Giants’ look like they’re going to be without at least 3, if not 4 starters on the offensive line, which is going to present significant issues against a Commanders’ pass rush that ranks 6th in the league in sacks per game and 10th in QB hits. The Commanders have lost 3 of their last 4 games, but their DL will have an opportunity to make a heavy impact on this game getting after either Daniel Jones (questionable with neck injury) or Tyrod Taylor.

Red Zone Matchup Analysis

  • KC gets to the red zone at a high clip, ranking 5th in RZ trips on the season and 3rd in % of drives to reach the RZ, facing a Chargers’ defense that ranks 31st in RZ trips allowed per game. Travis Kelce ranks 5th in the league in RZ receptions per game and 8th in RZ targets in 2023. In his last matchup against the Chargers in November 2022, Kelce caught 6 balls for 115 yards and 3 TD’s. He should be in-line for a big game in this one against an awful Chargers’ secondary that could be without S Derwin James.
  • The Eagles rank 8th in the league in RZ trips, facing a MIA defense that’s been exposed by the two high-powered offenses they’ve faced this season in the Chargers and Bills and ranks 23rd in RZ trips allowed per game and 26th in RZ TD %. That said, Philly has struggled to convert RZ trips into TD’s, ranking 23rd in RZ TD %.
  • Seattle ranks 9th in the league in RZ trips per game, facing an Arizona defense that ranks 32nd in the league in RZ trips allowed. Kenneth Walker III ranks 3rd in the league in RZ carries per game with 6 TD’s on the season thus far in 5 games. On the opposite side of the ball, Arizona ranks 22nd in the league in RZ trips per game and will be facing a SEA defense that ranks 2nd in RZ trips allowed but 32nd in RZ TD %.

Side of the Week

Game Matchup Dashboard: LAR vs PIT

LA Rams (-3) vs PIT

  • The Rams enter this one with a high-powered passing offense led by Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua that ranks 5th in offensive efficiency, 4th in EPA/play, 8th in series conversion rate and 8th in early down success rate. They rank 3rd in passing YPG, 7th in YPA and 2nd in passes of 10+ yards, facing a Pittsburgh secondary that ranks 26th in passing YPG allowed and 24th in passes of 10+ yards allowed. Cooper Kupp has made an instant impact in his return, catching 15 balls on 21 targets for 266 yards and a TD in two games since he’s returned.
  • The Steelers are off a bye and an outright win over the Ravens at home in which the Ravens dropped 3 TD passes and 7 total passes, allowed a blocked punt for a safety and threw an INT in the end zone. Pittsburgh has zero offensive identity, ranking 29th in EPA/play, 32nd in series conversion rate, 27th in YPP, 32nd in early down success rate, 25th in passing YPG, 27th in rushing YPG and 32nd in both RZ trips and RZ TD %.
  • If Matt Stafford can sustain the same success that Jimmy G and CJ Stroud have against this secondary and move the chains with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua early and often, it’s difficult to envision Kenny Pickett leading an offense that can keep pace. Baltimore should have beaten Pittsburgh by two scores in Week 5, but drops and turnovers lost them this game.
  • In total, the Rams rank 11th in the league in Net YPP, while PIT ranks 28th in Net YPP with the likes of the Bears, Commanders, Broncos, Panthers and Giants. The Rams are more explosive on offense, take care of the ball and don’t have to rely on defensive TD’s, blocked punts and drops to win the game. Take Rams by a field goal plus at -3.


Game Matchup Dashboard: BAL vs DET

Ravens / Lions U43.5

  • The Ravens and Lions enter this game with two excellent defenses that rank 2nd and 3rd in the league in EPA/play allowed, respectively. Baltimore ranks 2nd in the league in YPP and early down success rate, 4th in passing YPG allowed, 6th in passes of 10+ yards, 2nd in RZ TD % and 7th in RZ trips allowed. They have one of league’s best pass rushes, ranking 2nd in sacks per game and 9th in QB hits. The Lions meanwhile have an equally talented defense that’s completely transformed itself from 2022 – they rank 4th in YPP allowed, 5th in 3rd down conversion rate, 6th in passing YPA, 1st in rushing YPG and 2nd in both YPC and runs of 10+ yards allowed.
  • Heading into the season, Baltimore was reported to be working on a more pass-oriented offensive approach under Todd Monken, but they rank 2nd in the league in run play percentage heading into Week 7. Their offense is reliant on the run game, but will be facing a Lions’ defense that is allowing opponents to rush for under 65 yards per game through the first 6 weeks of the season.
  • David Montgomery has been Detroit’s bell cow in the backfield but will be out in this one with a rib injury, which will give Jahmyr Gibbs an opportunity to get a significant share of carries. Montgomery has gotten more touches in 2023 largely due to his experience in running between the tackles and getting north and south – Gibbs will be facing a Baltimore run defense that ranks 10th in the league in rushing yards allowed.
  • Jared Goff has been excellent once again in 2023, but his home/road splits over the course of his career have been notable. Home / road splits from 2022:
    • Home: 274 passing YPG, 23 TD’s, 3 INT’s
    • Road: 245 passing YPG, 6 TD’s, 4 INT’s
  • 16+ MPH winds are in the forecast at kickoff in this one in Baltimore, which will have an impact on both teams’ passing attacks and field goal kicks.
  • Baltimore is 5-1 to the UNDER in 2023, with an average total output of 37 PPG. If Gibbs cannot run north south without Montgomery in the mix and the wind impacts Detroit’s passing attack, points will come at a premium in this game. Take the UNDER 43.5.

Head over to our Dashboard section of the site to comb through game matchup dashboards for every game on the board in Week 7, and browse our Player Matchup Analysis dashboards to optimize your DFS / FF lineups and target the player prop markets.

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