Around the NFL: Week 9 Recap

Week 9 Takeaways and Implications for Week 10

Concise game recaps and implications from Week 9 that provide you with information that matters to attack Week 10. Head over to our game matchup dashboards to understand each team’s strengths and weaknesses as teams as every team continues to reveal who they are in 2023. Once you digest takeaways from the Week 9, head over to our dashboard section to break down the Week 10 board.

Steelers / Titans

  • The Steelers won another game in 2023 in which they were outgained by their opponent, this time at home on TNF against the Titans, who look to have found their starting QB on Will Levis moving forward. Levis did not light up the scoreboard on the night, finishing the game 22-39 for 262 yards, no TD’s and an INT, but he lead the Titans to a 13-10 lead at halftime and got the Titans’ offense into Pittsburgh’s RZ with under a minute left in regulation with an opportunity to take a lead down 20-16.
  • In his first two starts Levis most importantly has showed a willingness to push the ball down the field and to the sidelines, which was missing from TEN’s offensive attack with Ryan Tannehill at the helm.
  • Kenny Pickett didn’t do much to inspire any confidence on a short week and at home, but lead the game-winning drive that ended with a TD score to Diontae Johnson to cap off an 11-play, 92-yard scoring drive. Pickett finished 19-30 for 160 yards (5.3 YPA) and 1 TD, while Jaylen Warren (11 carries, 88 yards) and Najee Harris (16 carries, 69 yards) combined for 157 yards on the ground in total against a TEN defense that ranks 10th in YPC allowed. The Steelers entered the week ranking 28th in EPA/play, 26th in YPP and 31st in early down success rate.
  • Pittsburgh got Cam Heyward back at DT – he’s been missing since the 1st half of their season opener against SF and is important particularly in their run defense. The Steelers held TEN to 3-13 on 3rd down and sacked Levis 4 times, logging an INT to seal the game late in regulation.
  • The Steelers are 3-point favorites at home this week against the Packers, while the Titans are 1-point underdogs on the road in Tampa.

Chiefs / Dolphins

  • The Chiefs bounced back from an ugly loss on the road in Denver in Week 8, while the Dolphins failed to rise to the occasion against one of the elite teams in the NFL in Germany. KC took a 21-0 lead into halftime after posting a TD on their first and last possessions of the 1st half and returning a Miami fumble for a TD. In total, the Dolphins punted the ball 5 times in the first half and amassed just 100 yards of total offense.
  • Miami clawed back into the game in the second half and had an opportunity to tie things up on their final drive, but Tua made several bad throws and fumbled a snap that led to a turnover on downs and gave the Chiefs a win to improve to 7-2. Miami outgained KC 292-267, holding Pat Mahomes to just 185 yards and 2 TD’s through the air on 20-30 passing, but lost the TO battle and played from behind for the entire game.
  • KC made the most of their trips to the RZ, finishing 2-2, but punted three times and lost a fumble on their four second half possessions, posting just 48 yards of total offense on 20 plays. The Chiefs finished just 3-10 on 3rd down, while the Dolphins were just 3-12.
  • Both teams are taking their bye as they travel back from Europe – the Chiefs will host the Eagles in Week 11, while the Dolphins host the Raiders in two weeks.

Falcons / Vikings

  • The Vikings were without Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson to start this game and proceeded to lose QB Jaren Hall, WR KJ Osborne and RB Cam Akers during the game yet still found a way to win outright on the road in Atlanta to improve to 5-4 in a gutsy team win for a group that entered Week 9 ranked 7th in the league in Net YPP in the same tier as teams like the Dolphins, Ravens, 49ers, Chiefs, Lions, Bills and Eagles.
  • The Falcons posted 370 yards of offense with Taylor Heinicke at the helm, but lost and dropped to 4-5. Heinicke pushed the ball down the field and finished 21-38 for 268 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, but the defense could not hold a 28-24 lead with under two minutes to go in regulation and allowed Josh Dobbs to lead an 11-play, 75-yard TD drive where the Vikings took a 31-28 lead with 22 seconds left in regulation.
  • Dobbs finished 20-30 for 158 yards, 2 TD’s and added another 7 carries for 66 yards and a TD on the ground after being traded to the Vikings earlier in the week.
  • Atlanta turned the ball over twice in the second half, and Minnesota converted those turnovers into 10 points of offense. The Falcons dropped to 2-7 ATS with the loss and entered the week ranking 24th in the league in EPA/play.
  • The Vikings will host the Saints as 2.5-point underdogs at home in Week 10, while the Falcons will travel to Arizona as a 1-point favorite where they will likely face Kyler Murray at QB.

Browns / Cardinals

  • The Browns’ defense completely neutralized the Cardinals’ offense, holding Arizona to just 58 yards in total in Clayton Tune’s first start in the NFL. Clayton Tune finished 11-20 for 58 yards and 2 INT’s, was sacked 8 times and lead the Cardinals to just 1-12 on 3rd down – the Cardinals logged 0 trips to the RZ, turned the ball over 3 times and punted 9 times. The Browns’ defense heads into Week 10 ranking 3rd in defensive efficiency, 2nd in EPA/play, 2nd in YPP allowed, 1st in RZ trips allowed per game and 4th in sacks per game.
  • Deshaun Watson returned under center for Cleveland and finished 19-30 for 219 yards and 2 TD’s, leading the Browns to 326 yards of total offense and 3-4 in the RZ. Amari Cooper caught 5 balls for 139 yards and a TD against an Arizona secondary that entered the week ranking 29th in YPA allowed and 27th in passes of 10+ yards allowed.
  • The Browns improved to 5-3 with the win and will head to Baltimore in Week 10 as 5.5-point underdogs. The Cardinals will get Kyler Murray back under center and will host the Falcons as 1-point underdogs at home.

Packers / Rams

  • The Rams missed Matthew Stafford badly on offense in a game where they were outgained by the Packers by a margin of 391-187 in which Brett Rypien finished 13-28 for 130 yards and an INT and the Rams offense logged 0 trips to the RZ.
  • Green Bay’s first half troubles on offense continued in this one – they posted just 7 points and 138 yards of offense. They also turned the ball over on their first two drives of the second half, but managed to hold LAR in check, building a 13-3 lead into the 4th quarter, where they delivered a knockout punch on an 8-play, 72-yard TD drive in which they took a 20-3 lead with just under four minutes left in regulation on a 20-yard TD pass to Luke Musgrave.
  • Jordan Love finished 20-26 for 228 yards and 1 TD. Green Bay dominated in the ground game, posting 184 yards in total on the ground on 38 carries (4.8 YPC). Aaron Jones carried the ball 20 times for 73 yards and a TD and added another 4 catches for 26 yards on 6 targets, finishing with 99 yards from scrimmage.
  • The Rams dropped to 3-6 and are now 1-4 ATS over their L5 and 4-1 to the UNDER heading into the bye. The Packers have gone UNDER in each of their last four games and in five of the L6 games – they are 3-point underdogs on the road in Pittsburgh in Week 10 against a Steelers group that has gone UNDER in their L6 games and in seven of eight games in 2023.  

Patriots / Commanders

  • Washington bounced back from their Week 8 loss at home to the Eagles and won outright on the road in New England in a game where they outgained the Patriots by a margin of 432-327. Sam Howell finished 29-45 for 325 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, leading the Commanders to 9-17 on 3rd down but finishing just 1-4 on RZ trips.
  • Washington won the time of possession battle 37:10-22:50, holding NE to 3-12 on 3rd down and allowing just 1 RZ trip. Mac Jones finished 24-44 for 220 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT – the Patriots had the ball in Washington territory down 20-17 with under a minute left in regulation, but Jones threw an INT on a pass intended for Juju Smith-Schuster that sealed the victory for the Commanders.
  • New England continues to lack explosiveness on the offense side of the ball after losing WR Kendrick Bourne for the season to a torn ACL – they entered the week ranked 26th in EPA/play, 28th in YPP and 3rd down conversion rate, 24th in passing YPG and 27th in rushing YPG. With the loss, the Patriots drop to 2-7 SU and ATS on the season – the only games they’ve covered, they won outright over the Jets and Bills.
  • New England travels to Germany to take on the Colts as 1-point underdogs in Week 10 where Belichick reportedly might be coaching for his job, while the Commanders are 6.5-point underdogs on the road in Seattle, who is off a 37-3 rout of a loss against the Ravens.

Saints / Bears

  • The Bears outgained the Saints 368-301 in Tyson Bagent’s second career start, but turned the ball over 5 times in a 7-point loss at the Superdome. All things considered, it’s a relatively impressive result to have logged 5 turnovers and lost by just a TD considering how poorly Chicago’s defense, particularly their secondary, has played in 2023. The Saints sealed the win with a strip sack with just over two minutes left in regulation to improve to 5-4 and take sole control of the NFC South lead.
  • Chicago started fast offensively, posting TD’s on two of their first three drives in the first half against a Saints’ defense that entered Week 9 ranking 6th in EPA/play, 7th in YPP allowed, 3rd in early down success rate and 3rd in 3rd down conversion rate. The wheels fell off in the second half, as Chicago turned the ball over on four of seven possessions, went three-and-out twice and converted one field goal.
  • Chicago’s run defense that entered Week 9 ranking 3rd in rushing YPG allowed, 1st in YPC and 9th in runs of 10+ yards generally held NO in check, holding the Saints to just 87 yards in total on the ground on 27 carries (3.2 YPC). Alvin Kamara carried the ball just 9 times for 26 yards, but caught 4 balls for 44 yards on 5 targets and cleared his receiving prop of 31.5 receiving yards, which we posted in the Week 9 preview.
  • The Saints have gone UNDER in 7 of 9 games this season and are just 2-7 ATS – they head to Minnesota as 2.5-point favorites in Week 10. The Bears have a short week as they host the Panthers as 3.5-point favorites on TNF.

Ravens / Seahawks

  • The Ravens once again routed what looked like a formidable NFC opponent at home, logging a 37-3 win to improve to 7-2 on the season in a game where they outgained the Seahawks 515-151. Lamar Jackson finished just 21-26 for 187 yards – the Ravens posted 298 yards rushing on 41 carries, good for 7.8 YPC, and won the TOP battle 40:04-19:56.
  • Seattle finished 1-12 on 3rd down, logged just 1 RZ trip and posted just 28 yards rushing on 15 carries (1.9 YPC) against a Baltimore defense that entered Week 9 ranking 1st in EPA/play and YPP allowed, 2nd in early down success rate, 9th in passing YPG allowed, 5th in RZ trips per game and 1st in sacks per game. Baltimore sacked Geno Smith four times and held Seattle to just 84 yards of first half offense on 30 snaps.
  • Keaton Mitchell rushed for 138 yards and 1 TD on just 9 carries, while Lamar carried the ball 10 times for 60 yards. Mark Andrews caught 9 balls for 80 yards on 10 targets, leading Ravens receivers in receptions, targets and yardage.
  • Lamar Jackson improved to 18-1 SU vs the NFC in his career.
  • The Ravens should very much be considered one of the top 3 contenders in an AFC race that is loaded with KC, CIN and BUF all viable contenders with the postseason around the corner. They rank 8th in the league in EPA/play and 6th in YPP on offense and also lead the league in both EPA/play and YPP allowed on defense heading into Week 10.
  • The Ravens are 5.5-point favorites at home against the Browns in Week 10, while the Seahawks will host the Commanders as 6.5-point favorites.

Texans / Buccaneers

  • CJ Stroud bounced back from a few tough weeks against strong secondaries in New Orleans and Carolina and finished with 470 passing yards and 5 TD’s against TB’s 30th-ranked secondary in Week 9. Baker Mayfield gave the Bucs a 37-33 lead with 46 seconds left in regulation, capping off a 10-play, 61-yard drive with a 14-yard TD to Cade Otton with under a minute to go, but Stroud responded with a 6-play, 75-yard scoring drive of his own that took just 40 seconds of clock time and ended with a 15-yard TD to Tank Dell to give the Texans a 39-37 advantage. We highlighted Stroud as one of the best QB matchups of the weekend as he was facing TB’s 30th ranked secondary in Week 9.
  • Houston outgained Tampa Bay 496-332 in a game where both teams combined for 6-24 on 3rd down but posted 76 points of total offense. Noah Brown caught 6 balls for 153 yards and a TD, while Dalton Schultz (10 catches, 130 yards, 1 TD) and Tank Dell (6 catches, 114 yards, 2 TD’s) also contributed heavily to help the Texans improve to 4-4.
  • Houston entered the week ranking 5th in our offensive efficiency rankings, 7th in 3rd down conversion rate, 4th in YPA and most importantly, 1st in turnovers per game, a credit to the way Stroud has performed as a pro in his rookie season.
  • The Texans are 7-point underdogs on the road against the surging Bengals in Week 10, while the Bucs have lost 4 straight and will look to right the ship at home as 1-point favorites against the Titans.

Panthers / Colts

  • Bryce Young threw 3 INT’s and two pick-6’s in this game which ultimately sank the Panthers in Week 9 despite outgaining Indy 275-198 and holding Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss to 78 yards on the ground. Carolina’s defense held Indy to 51 yards of offense on 18 plays in the second half of non-garbage time action.
  • Through Week 9, Bryce Young has completed 64% of his passes, but is averaging just 5.5 YPA with 8 TD’s and 7 INT’s, leading a Carolina offense that heads into Week 10 ranking 30th in EPA/play, 31st in YPP and 30th in early down success rate.
  • Gardner Minshew struggled in this one against Carolina’s secondary that ranks 3rd in the league in passing YPG allowed and 4th in passes of 10+ yards allowed, throwing for just 127 yards and 1 TD on 17-26 passing.
  • Carolina dropped to 1-7 on the season with a short week as they travel to Chicago as 3.5-point underdogs on TNF. Indy heads to Germany to face the Patriots as 1-point favorites in Frankfurt.

Raiders / Giants

  • The Raiders won in convincing fashion in their first game under interim head coach Antonio Pierce against the Giants, who lost Daniel Jones for the season to a torn ACL. LV outgained NYG 334-277, forcing two INT’s, sacking Giants QB’s 8 times and holding the Giants to 3-12 on 3rd down.
  • Aidan O’Connell passed for just 209 yards on 16-25 passing, but did not turn the ball over and handed the ball off to Raiders’ backs that combined for 125 yards rushing. Josh Jacobs had one of his best games of the season against the Giants’ run defense that ranks 25th in rushing YPG allowed and 29th in runs of 10+ yards, finishing with 98 yards and 2 TD’s on 25 carries.
  • Saquon Barkley rushed for 90 yards on just 16 carries (5.6 YPC) against a Raiders’ run defense that is equally as bad and ranks 31st in rushing YPG, 28th in YPC and 32nd in runs of 10+ yards heading into Week 10. It’s going to be tough sledding for a Giants’ offense the rest of the season without Daniel Jones – they rank 32nd in EPA/play and YPP, 27th in 3rd down conversion rate, 31st in passing YPG and YPA, 29th in passes of 10+ yards and 32nd in sacks allowed per game.
  • The Giants will turn to Tommy DeVito on the road in Week 10 as 16.5-point underdogs against Dallas, while the Raiders are 2.5-point underdogs at home against the Jets.

Eagles / Cowboys

  • The Eagles managed to keep Dallas out of the end zone on the final drive of the game to improve to 8-1 and take a commanding lead in the race for home-field advantage in the NFC playoff race. The Eagles trailed 17-14 at halftime and had a scare after Jalen Hurts limped off the field late in the 1st half, but regained control of the game by posting two TD’s on their first two possessions of the 2nd half to take a 28-17 lead.
  • Philly stopped Dallas at their goal line, up 28-23 with just over a minute left in regulation, but could not run out the clock and gave the ball back to Dallas at their own 14-yard line with no timeouts and 46 seconds left in regulation. Dallas got to the Eagles’ 6-yard line, but Prescott was sacked with 27 seconds left in regulation and ultimately left with a loss, dropping to 5-3 on the season.
  • We posted the O46.5 in the Week 9 Preview, which got home even as the Cowboys were stopped on two separate occasions inside Philly’s 20-yard line late in the 4th quarter.
  • Dallas outgained Philly 406-292 as Dak Prescott carved up an Eagles’ secondary that’s been extremely suspect in 2023 and entered Week 9 ranking 26th in passing YPG allowed and 32nd in passes of 10+ yards allowed. Prescott finished 29-44 for 374 yards and 3 TD’s, while CeeDee Lamb caught 11 balls for 191 yards.
  • The Eagles made timely stops on several occasions late in this game, sacking Prescott 5 times and holding Dallas to just 73 yards on the ground.
  • The Eagles lost TE Dallas Goedert to a fractured arm that will likely keep him out about a month – they head into the bye at 8-1, while Dallas returns home as a 16.5-point favorite over the NY Giants, who just lost Daniel Jones to a torn ACL.

Bengals / Bills

  • Cincy posted TD’s on their first two possessions of this game and three of five first half possessions to take a 21-7 lead into halftime in a game where Joe Burrow continued to round into his old self, finishing with 348 yards and two passing TD’s on 31-44 passing. Cincy outgained Buffalo 397-317, finished 2-3 in the RZ and won the time of possession battle 36:38 – 23:22.
  • Tee Higgins caught 8 balls for 110 yards on 9 targets, while Jamar Chase suffered a back injury in this game that is worth monitoring on a go-forward as he is Burrow’s favorite target and the X-factor in this offense.
  • Buffalo opened with a 7-play, 85-yard scoring drive on their first possession and engineered a 12-play, 75-yard TD drive on their final possession to cut Cincy’s lead to 24-18. In between they managed just 160 yards of offense, an INT and a lost fumble on 37 plays.
  • The Bills have now lost three of their L5 games and are 0-5 ATS over that stretch, going 4-1 to the UNDER as their offense has struggled to build and sustain momentum.
  • The Bengals meanwhile are 4-0 ATS and SU in their L4 games since losing 27-3 on the road in Tennessee.
  • The Bengals are 7-point favorites at home against the frisky Texans, while the Bills are 7.5-point favorites at home on MNF against the Broncos, a game where they will want to get back on track against a Denver defense that ranks 31st in EPA/play, 32nd in YPP and 28th in passing YPG.

Jets / Chargers

  • The NY Jets outgained the Chargers 270-191 but finished 3-17 on 3rd down, finished 0-2 in the RZ, allowed Zach Wilson to be sacked 8 times and lost 3 fumbles in a game where they ultimately lost by 3 scores at home.
  • The Chargers returned a punt for a TD and scored 14 points off NYJ fumbles, making the most of costly mistakes to build a lead and ultimately secure a win on the road on MNF to get back to .500 at 4-4. The Chargers finished 2-2 in the RZ, making the most of their trips into NYJ territory and taking care of the ball, finishing with 0 turnovers.
  • Like Mahomes, Allen and Hurts, Justin Herbert struggled against a Jets’ defense that ranks 4th in defensive efficiency, 8th in EPA/play, 3rd in YPP allowed and 2nd in passing YPG allowed, finishing just 16-30 for 136 yards and 0 TD’s. That said, Keenan Allen caught 8 balls for 77 yards on 9 targets.
  • Though he was sacked eight times, Zach Wilson significantly outperformed his season passing average of 191 YPG, finishing with 263 yards on 33-49 passing against a Chargers’ secondary that ranks 32nd in the league in passing YPG allowed at 314 per game.
  • The Chargers remain alive in the AFC playoff picture and will host the Lions as 1.5-point underdogs at home in Week 10, while the Jets are 2.5-point favorites on the road against the Raiders.

Made it here? Head over to our game and player matchup dashboards to dissect every matchup and identify the biggest mismatches to attack the betting markets or optimize your DFS and fantasy football lineups in Week 10.