Around the NFL: Week 4 Preview

We are here on a weekly basis to provide you with impartial matchup analysis to navigate each week and make informed, data-driven decisions with the latest information at hand. We rely on our game and player matchup analysis dashboards that provide a concise overview of a team’s strengths and weaknesses at every level of the game and produce advantage insights by identifying key mismatches in the trenches, at the skill positions and in the secondary that will have a significant impact on game results across the league each week.

Mismatches that Will Impact Game Results in Week 4:

• San Francisco loves to run the football and is going to have an excellent matchup to do so against Arizona’s run defense that ranks 26th in rushing yards allowed per game and 22nd in YPC allowed. SF ranks 3rd in the league in rushing YPG and 4th in both YPC and runs of 10+ yards. Dallas ran for 185 yards on this defensive front in Week 3, led by Tony Pollard who rushed for 122 yards on 23 carries (5.3 YPC). Deebo did not practice on Thursday, while Brandon Aiyuk was limited – if they’re missing at least Deebo and Aiyuk is limited, expect SF to try to move the ball on the ground with McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell and set up some play action for George Kittle  
• The Bears’ defensive shortcomings are not going anywhere – they rank 32nd in defensive efficiency, EPA/play, series conversion rate, YPP allowed, YPA, sacks and QB hits. This all translates into a spot where Russell Wilson should be able to sustain some success through the air – he’s thrown for 300+ in the last two weeks against the Dolphins and Commanders. The Bears lost their defensive coordinator to a resignation heading into Week 3 and are extremely banged up in the secondary – CB Jaylon Johnson (hamstring), S Eddie Jackson (foot) and CB Josh Blackwell DNP on Thursday. CB Kyler Gordon (hand) is already on IR – Jaquan Brisker and Tyrique Stevenson are only healthy DB’s on the roster. Pat Mahomes threw for 272 yards before exiting the game early in the 3rd quarter, while Baker Mayfield exceeded the 300+ yard mark in Week 2, throwing for 317 yards and 1 TD on 26-34 passing.
• The Bengals’ passing game is off to another slow start in 2023 as Burrow continues to recover from a calf strain, but he and Jamar Chase are heading into Week 4 with an opportunity to right the ship against a Titans’ secondary that ranks 30th in passing YPG allowed, 29th in YPA and 25th in passes of 10+ yards. Cincy has looked disjointed on offense, ranking 32nd in YPP, 30th in early down success rate and 27th in passing YPG, but Burrow and Chase improved their timing in Week 3 against the Rams. Chase caught 12 balls for 141 yards on 15 targets. Burrow threw for 270 yards on 22-37 passing against Tennessee in December 2022, while Tee Higgins caught 7 balls for 114 yards; Jamar Chase DNP in that matchup. Deshaun Watson threw for 289 yards in Week 3 vs TEN – he has averaged 215 passing YPG in his last 5 games dating back to 2022.
• The Eagles have relied heavily on their run game the last two weeks specifically, going for 259 yards on the ground against Minnesota in Week 2 and another 201 in Week 3 vs Tampa, who ranked 2nd in the league in rushing YPG allowed heading into the MNF matchup. Philly ranks 2nd in the league in rushing play percentage. Washington has a strong front 7 that has excelled in rushing the passer, but they rank 26th in YPC and 25th in runs of 10+ allowed. James Cook rushed for 98 yards on just 15 carries in Week 3 (6.5 YPC), helping the Bills to a total of 168 yards on the ground. This is looking like a great spot for De’Andre Swift to pick up yardage in significant chunks – Philly should look to feed the hot hand who ran for 175 yards and 1 TD on 28 carries (6.2 YPC) against Minny and 130 yards on 16 carries (8.1 YPC) against TB.
• Seattle’s offense is off to a hot start, ranking 4th in EPA/play, 7th in series conversion rate, 10th in YPP, 2nd in early down success rate and 3rd in RZ trips. They’ll be facing a Giants’ defense that has been very bad to start the season, ranking 29th in defensive efficiency, series conversion rate and YPP, 30th in EPA/play, 28th in rushing YPG and 27th in both YPC and runs of 10+ yards. Seattle has posted 37 points of offense in back to back weeks, racking up 393 yards against Detroit in Week 2 and 425 yards against Carolina in Week 3. Kenneth Walker is tied for 5th in runs of 10+ yards through 3 weeks, and should have plenty of opportunity to make an impact in this game, ranking 7th among RB’s in carry share at 62%.
• Justin Herbert and the Chargers’ offense are not the reason for their 1-2 record – this offense ranks 2nd in offensive efficiency, 3rd in EPA/play, 4th in YPP, 3rd in passing YPG and YPA and 4th in passes of 10+ yards. LV’s defense ranks 20th in defensive efficiency, 26th in EPA/play, 31st in series conversion rate and 23rd in YPP. In Week 2, Josh Allen torched this secondary, finishing 31-37 for 274 yards and 3 TD’s. The loss of Mike Williams should lead to even more targets for Keenan Allen, who ranks 2nd in the league in targets, 3rd in receiving YPG through 3 weeks with 134. Allen caught 18 balls for 215 yards on a ridiculous 20 targets in Week 3. The Raiders added Marcus Peters on the offseason, but he starts alongside a rookie in Jakorian Bennett. Expect Kellen Moore to move Keenan Allen around and target him through the air early and often, as the Chargers are likely without RB Austin Ekeler in Week 4 – they ran the ball just 13 times for 19 yards in Week 3 in his absence.
• The Colts won outright in Week 3 in Baltimore, but benefitted from rainy conditions and an injured Baltimore receiving corps that helped to cover up their young and extremely suspect secondary. Indy held Lamar to just 202 yards through the air yet still ranks 26th in passing YPG allowed and 23rd in YPA with an upcoming matchup in their dome against Stafford, who ranks 4th in passing YPG, 10th in YPA and 2nd in passes of 10+ yards. Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell came back down to earth on the road in Week 3, but this Rams passing attack is positioned for a big day on Sunday in Indy.

MATCHUPS IN THE TRENCHES

• The above graphic does not scream that the Eagles’ pass rush is going to spend a lot of time with Sam Howell in the Washington backfield, but the Commanders rank 32nd in pass protection and allowed Howell to be sacked 19 times in three weeks, including 9 times against Buffalo in Week 3. This is in part due to how long Howell is holding the ball in the pocket, but a bad trend for Washington nonetheless. Philly racked up 70 sacks in 2022 to lead the league, and replaced Javon Hargrave with Jalen Carter – expect them to put some significant pressure on Howell this week.
• Cleveland lost RT Jack Conklin in Week 1 and the line has struggled to protect Watson so far this season, ranking 29th in sacks allowed and 24th in QB hits allowed. Baltimore’s pass rush has been strong so far, as they rank 5th in the league in sacks and 7th in QB hits. Watson finished with just 161 yards through the air on 18-28 passing in a December meeting with Cleveland in which he was sacked 3 times.
• Houston’s offensive line is in complete shambles and has an awful matchup against the Steelers’ high-powered pass rush. The Texans are relying on backup George Fant, rookie Jarrett Patterson at C and will be missing T Laremy Tunsil again in Week 4. The Texans rank 25th in sacks allowed with 11 and 28th in QB hits allowed – they’re also struggling to run the ball, ranking 29th in rushing YPG and 32nd in YPC. Houston’s inability to get anything going in the running game may force Houston to rely more heavily on the pass game, which is a bad combination against TJ Watt.
• The Giants have generated one of the worst pass rushes in the league so far this season with just 2 sacks in total (31st in league) – Seattle has figured out their OL issues that have plagued them over the last 4-5 years and are doing a good job protecting Geno Smith. Smith should have plenty of time in the pocket, which should translate to a big day for the Seattle offense.
• Tua will need to continue to get the ball out quickly against the Bills’ high-powered pass rush, the best he’s played yet this season.
• The Bears have the worst pass rush in the league, which will be a welcomed factor for Russell Wilson in this one. The Broncos got embarrassed last week, but they are not struggling to move the ball on offense – they rank 10th in series conversion rate, 8th in YPP, 8th in passing YPG and 9th in YPA. If Russ has time in the pocket against a banged up secondary that ranks 28th in passing YPG allowed and 31st in YPA.
• The Saints rank 28th in pass protection (G Caeasar Ruiz DNP on Thursday) and will be facing a Bucs’ front 7 that still has talent and speed, ranking 10th in sacks and 5th in QB hits per game. They also rank 3rd in turnovers forced – Winston should be under pressure in this one. Last time he faced Tampa Bay in September 2022, he threw 3 INT’s and was sacked 6 times in September 2022.

TEASER OF THE WEEK

Two Team, 6-Point Teaser

MIA +3 to +9

PHI -8.5 to -2.5

• Bills S Jordan Poyer has been ruled out in this one, which is a blow to the back end of the Bills’ secondary in an important AFC East matchup against this high-powered passing attack.
• Miami’s offense numbers are obviously inflated by the 70-burger they just dropped on Denver, but the performance of this offense so far in 2023 is very difficult to ignore. Everyone is aware of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle’s speed at the WR position, but the success they’ve had running the ball in 2023 is what should concern opponents for the rest of the season.
• Miami ranks 1st in rushing YPG and YPC and 2nd in runs of 10+ yards off a Week 3 win in which they ran for 350 yards in total on the ground. Miami’s continued success in the run game is going to force defenses to put more defenders in the box to keep them honest, which in turn will open up passing lanes for Tua and the receivers. In Week 2, Bellichick and the Pats’ defense took away Tyreek Hill, who finished with just 5 catches for 40 yards, so Miami ran the ball for 145 yards on 30 carries.
• Miami is suspect on defense but we expect them to continue to improve under Vic Fangio’s tutelage. Miami led the Bills 24-20 in the 3rd quarter of the AFC Wild Card game in which Skyler Thompson was the starter – the Bills shot themselves in the foot with 3 turnovers.
• Buffalo could very likely win this game, but I like Miami’s firepower and balance on the offensive side of the ball to allow them to keep pace should the Bills move the ball on this defense, given that Miami ranks 1st in each of the following offensive categories: offensive efficiency, EPA/play, YPP, early down success rate, passing YPG, passes of 10+ yards, rushing YPG, runs of 10+ yards, RZ TD %, sacks allowed and QB hits allowed.

• Philly is rounding into form heading home for a Week 4 matchup against the Commanders, who are off a 37-3 rout against the Bills in which they allowed Sam Howell to be sacked 9 times (Howell threw 4 INT’s as well).
• The Eagles are still working to find their footing in the passing game with a new coordinator at the helm following Shane Steichen’s departure, but one thing that they continue to know how to do very well in 2023 is run the ball – they rank 2nd in rushing YPG and 5th in YPC. De’Andre Swift has gone for 130+ rushing yards in his last two games and has an opportunity to continue his streak of success against a Commanders’ run defense that ranks 22nd in rushing YPG allowed, 26th in YPC and 25th in runs of 10+ yards.
• Sam Howell led the Commanders to an exciting come from behind win over the Broncos in Week 2, but he’s getting shelled in the pocket behind an awful Commanders’ OL that ranks 32nd in sacks allowed and 30th in QB hits allowed. Howell has been sacked 19 times so far this season, including 9 times against Buffalo’s high-powered pass rush. Philly hasn’t logged sacks at a high clip so far in 2023, but they have the personnel to continue to disrupt the pocket as Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis are both off to excellent starts in the middle of this defensive line.
• The Eagles rank 1st in rushing YPG allowed (48.3), 3rd in YPC and 1st in runs of 10+ yards – they should be able to neutralize the Commanders’ run game and force them into passing situations, at which point they can pin their ears back and apply pressure on Howell against this very bad offensive line.
• The Eagles have a way of simply physically throttle bodying their opponents in the trenches and we expect them to do that in this one on both sides of the ball. Take the Eagles from -8.5 through key numbers of 3 and 7 down to -2.5 in this 6-point teaser.

UNDER OF THE WEEK

BAL / CLE: UNDER 40.5

*There are still 40’s available as of early Friday afternoon

• Deshaun Watson DNP on Friday and is questionable with a sore shoulder. OT Ronnie Stanley DNP on Friday along with WR Odell Beckham Jr, Rashod Batemane and OLBs Odafe Oweh and David Ojabo.
• We’re going to have two top 10 defenses on the field in Cleveland on Sunday – the Browns rank 1st in our defensive efficiency metric and nearly every other category on the dashboard above, while the Ravens rank 10th in our defensive efficiency, 7th in EPA/play, 2nd in YPP and 5th in sacks.
• The Browns have allowed just 1 offensive TD and 2 trips to the RZ in 2023 under Jim Schwartz. Baltimore ranks 7th in RZ trips allowed and 5th in RZ TD %.
• The Ravens’ have been very strong even with the absence of Marcus Williams and Marlon Humphrey early in the season. Marcus Williams was a full participant in practice on Thursday, while Humphrey has not practiced yet this week and likely will not return against Cleveland.  
• Cleveland has not been efficient on offense, ranking 28th in our efficiency rating and 27th in EPA/play. Their offense was built around running the ball with Nick Chubb; his absence is going to be a huge blow with Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt tasked with replacing him. Cleveland lost T Jack Conklin in Week 1 and ranks 26th in sacks allowed and 24th in QB hits allowed through three weeks, with a difficult matchup against a Baltimore pass rush that ranks 5th in sacks and 7th in QB hits upcoming.
• Watson padded his numbers against a bad TEN secondary in Week 3 – he finished just 16-29 for 154 yards against Cincy in Week 1 and 22-40 for 235 yards and 1 TD in Week 2. Baltimore has had success stopping the run in 2023, ranking 8th in rushing YPG allowed and runs of 10+ yards, now facing platoon of Ford and Hunt, not Nick Chubb. Cleveland also ranks 29th in the league in offensive penalty yards per game – penalties stall drives and force punts.
• Baltimore’s offense has not evolved under Todd Monken – they have no juice at the RB position with the loss of JK Dobbins in Week 1 as they turn back to Gus Edwards and Justice Hill, and Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman both look to be out. Cleveland has allowed just 1 offensive TD this season through 3 weeks, with an excellent opportunity to continue their success against an offense that looked disjointed in Week 1 vs Houston and Week 3 vs Indy down key playmakers at skill positions.

Head over to our Dashboard section of the site to comb through game matchup dashboards for every game on the board in Week 4, and browse our Player Matchup Analysis dashboards to optimize your DFS / FF lineups and target the player prop markets.

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