Around the NFL: Week 17 Recap

Concise game recaps and implications from Week 17 that provide you with information that matters to attack Week 18. Head over to our game matchup dashboards to understand each team’s strengths and weaknesses as teams as every team continues to reveal who they are in 2023. Once you digest takeaways from the Week 17, head over to our dashboard section to break down the Week 18 board.

Browns / Jets

  • The Browns posted 428 yards of offense under Joe Flacco and cruised somewhat easily to a 37-20 win at home to clinch their 2nd playoff berth since 2002. This was a particularly impressive performance considering the Jets’ defense ranks 7th on the season in defensive efficiency, 2nd in series conversion rate and 3rd in YPP allowed and has given great quarterbacks fits over the course of 2023. Flacco has thrown for at least 300 yards in 4 of 5 starts for the Browns in 2023; the Browns are 5-1 to the OVER in their L6 and 4-0 ATS in their L4 games but will be resting starters in Week 18 against the Bengals; the Jets are 1-9 ATS in their L10 and are 1.5-point dogs on the road in New England.

Cowboys / Lions

  • There were just 39 points scored but 804 yards of total offense in a game where the Lions outgained the Cowboys by a margin of 420-384 and had what could have been a game-winning 2-point conversion called back by a very unsettling call by the refs. Jared Goff threw for 271 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT’s against a Dallas defense that ranks 5th in passing YPG allowed, while the Lions in total ran for 125 yards on the ground against a Cowboys defense that ranks 19th in rushing YPG allowed. CeeDee Lamb caught 13 balls for 227 yards and a TD on 17 targets, while Dak Prescott threw for 345 yards, 2 TD’s and 1 INT on 26-38 passing. Dallas is now 1-4 ATS in their L5 and 3-0 to the UNDER; they are a 13.5-point favorite on the road against the Commanders in a game they need to win to secure the NFC East title; Detroit is 6-2 to the OVER in their L8 and 4-1 ATS in their L5; they are a 3.5-point favorite at home against Minnesota in a game where they’ll likely be playing their starters at least for a bit. 

Bills / Patriots

  • The Patriots outgained the Patriots by a margin of 294-281 but won 27-17; Josh Allen threw for just 169 yards and an INT on 15-30 passing against a Patriots’ defense that ranks 2nd in defensive efficiency and 5th in YPP allowed, while the Bills finished just 2-5 on RZ trips. New England lost the TO battle 4-1 thanks to 3 INT’s from Bailey Zappe, who finished with 209 yards and 3 INT’s on 16-26 passing. Buffalo has won 4 of their L5 games and is now playing for the AFC East division title on Sunday in Miami as a 3-point favorite. New England is 3-1 ATS in their L4 and 4-0 to the OVER in the same stretch; they are 1.5-point favorites at home against the Jets in the season finale where the total is 30.5.

Bears / Falcons

  • Chicago has caught some tailwinds over the trailing 6 weeks or so and dominated the Falcons at home in snowy conditions, outgaining the Falcons by a margin of 432-307, finishing 4-5 on RZ trips and rushing for 192 yards on the ground. Khalil Herbert ran for 124 yards and a TD on 18 carries and now has an excellent matchup incoming against a GB defense that ranks 28th in rushing YPG and 29th in runs of 10+ yards on the season. Taylor Heinicke meanwhile was brutal, finishing with just 163 yards, 1 TD and 3 INT’s on 10-29 passing, leading the Falcons to a brutal 4-13 conversion rate on 3rd down and 0-1 on RZ trips. The Falcons are 5-11 ATS on the season and 4-2 to the UNDER in their L6; they still have an opportunity to win the division with a Bucs’ loss to the Panthers and a win over the Saints on Sunday in a game where they are a 3-point dog. The Bears meanwhile are 5-1 ATS in their L6 and 5-2 SU in their L7; they have been eliminated from playoff contention but have an opportunity to spoil GB’s playoff berth as 3-point dogs in Lambeau on Sunday.

Colts / Raiders

  • Indy escaped with a 23-20 win at home over the Raiders to improve to 9-7 with an opportunity to clinch a playoff berth at home against Houston. The Colts were outgained by the Raiders 370-349 but finished 1-3 in the RZ and managed just 3 FG’s on 3 2nd half possessions. The Raiders continue to play hard under Antonio Pierce and finished 2-3 in the RZ; Davante Adams caught 13 balls for 126 yards and 2 TD’s on 21 targets against an Indy secondary that’s been a weakness this season. The Raiders are now 3-0 ATS in their L3 games and will host the Broncos as 2.5-point favorites at home; the Colts meanwhile have won 5 of their L7 games and are 5-1 to the OVER in their L6; they are 1.5-point dogs at home against the Texans on Sunday.

Giants / Rams

  • The Giants made things frisky at home against the Rams when they returned a punt for a TD to shrink the Rams’ deficit to 26-25 and later missed a potential game-winning 54-yard field goal.That said, the Rams only outgained the Giants by a margin of 391-389 and held the Rams to 2-8 on 3rd down and just 105 yards rushing, impressive considering they rank 29th in rushing YPG allowed and 30th in YPC allowed. Matthew Stafford threw for 317 yards, 1 TD but did throw 2 INT’s, while Puka Nacua caught 5 balls for 118 yards on 8 targets. The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their L6 and 5-1 to the OVER in the same stretch; they will rest their starters against the 49ers on Sunday. The Giants meanwhile are 5-1 ATS in their L6 and 5-2 to the OVER in their L7; they are 5.5-point home dogs against the Eagles on Sunday. 

Eagles / Cardinals

  • The Eagles turned in one of the most embarrassing performances of their season at a critical juncture in which they controlled their hopes to win the NFC East title heading into the game; Arizona outgained the Eagles by a margin of 449-275, possessed the ball for nearly 40 minutes of clock time and ran for 221 yards on the ground. The Cardinals finished 4-6 on RZ trips and posted TD’s on each of their 4 2nd half possessions. The Eagles are now 0-5 ATS in their L5 games with a defense that has plummeted to 32nd in our defensive efficiency ratings; they are 5.5-point favorites on the road against the Giants in Week 18 and look like they’ll be the 5th seed in the NFC postseason picture, a significant fall from grace from the 10-1 start they got off to. The Cardinals meanwhile are 4-1 to the OVER in their L5 and are 2.5-point dogs at home against the Seahawks in Week 18. 

Buccaneers / Saints

  • Baker Mayfield lead the Bucs to 349 yards of total offense, but the Bucs turned the ball over 4 times and lost by two scores to the Saints at home. Mayfield finished with 309 yards and 2 TD’s on 22-33 passing but also threw 2 INT’s and led the Bucs to just 51 yards of total offense in the first half. The Saints finished just 1-3 on RZ trips and did not do anything particularly special to win the game, particularly considering they posted just 115 yards of offense in the 2nd half on 31 plays. Still, the Bucs are 3-1 ATS in their L4 and 7-3 ATS in their L10 and control their destiny and will win the NFC South if they can close out the Panthers on the road in Week 18 as 4.5-point favorites. The Saints are 3-1 ATS in their L4 games and now face the Falcons as 3-point favorites with an opportunity to win the division if the Bucs stumble against Carolina.

Commanders / 49ers

  • San Fran played a mistake-free game and took care of business against the Commanders on the road in a matchup where they outgained Washington 408-225 and ran for 184 yards on the ground against a Commanders’ defense that ranks 25th in the league in rushing YPG allowed. Brock Purdy was an efficient 22-28, throwing for 230 yards and 2 TD’s, while Brandon Aiyuk caught 7 balls for 114 yards and a TD on 8 targets. Sam Howell threw for 169 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT’s, both costly in the 2nd half. The Commanders are now 1-5 ATS in their L6 but 5-2 to the OVER in the same stretch; they are 13-point dogs at home against the Cowboys in Week 18. The 49ers are 4-2 ATS and to the OVER in their L6 and said they will play starters for a good bit and are 4-point favorites at home against the Rams.

Jaguars / Panthers

  • The Jags blanked the Panthers 26-0 without Trevor Lawrence in a game where they outgained Carolina by a margin of 317-124 and held the Panthers to 1-13 on 3rd down and 0 RZ trips. Jacksonville ran for 155 yards on the ground against a Carolina run defense that ranks 23rd in the league in rushing YPG and 27th in runs of 10+ yards allowed. Bryce Young threw for 112 yards and an INT on 19-32 passing, good for just over 3.0 YPA. Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in their L5 but still have an opportunity to win the division with a win over the Titans on Sunday. The Panthers are 8-2 to the UNDER in their L10; they are 4.5-point dogs at home against the Bucs in Week 18.

Ravens / Dolphins

  • The Dolphins once again were throttle bodied by a superior opponent, this time the Ravens who outgained Miami by a margin of 491-375. Baltimore finished 5-5 on RZ trips and 4-7 on 3rd down against a Miami defense that ranks 29th in RZ TD %, while Lamar Jackson threw for 321 yards and 5 TD’s on just 18-21 passing. Baltimore’s defense forced 3 TO’s and held Tua to just 237 yards passing, 2 TD’s and 2 INT’s on 22-38 passing. Miami has lost 2 of their L4 and now will play for the AFC East crown at home as a 3-point dog against Buffalo and an offense that ranks 4th in RZ trips and 2nd in RZ TD %, while Baltimore will rest their starters after locking up the 1-seed and finishing the season on a 7-3 run to the OVER and ATS. 

Texans / Titans

  • CJ Stroud returned to action and lead the Texans to a 26-3 win over the Titans in a game where Houston outgained Tennessee 312-187 but finished just 3-11 on 3rd down and 1-3 on RZ trips. Houston’s top-3 run defense held the Titans to just 53 yards on the ground on 21 carries, while they sacked Ryan Tannehill 6 times and held him to just 168 yards on 16-28 passing. Stroud threw for 213 yards and a TD on 24-32 passing and will now have an opportunity to clinch a playoff berth as a rookie with a win over the Colts as a 1.5-point favorite on the road; Stroud threw for 384 yards and 2 TD’s on 30-47 passing in just his 2nd NFL start against the Colts in Week 2. The Titans are 3-7 ATS in their L10 and will look to play spoiler against the Jags in Week 18 as 5.5-point dogs at home.

Seahawks / Steelers

  • Pittsburgh clinched another winning season under Mike Tomlin with a road win in Seattle where they outgained the Seahawks 468-369 and logged a ridiculous 7 RZ trips, though they finished just 3-7 in the RZ. Mason Rudolph threw for 274 yards on 18-24 passing, while the Steelers ran for 202 yards in total on the ground against a Seahawks rushing defense that ranks 30th in the league in rushing YPG allowed, 24th in YPC allowed and 23rd in runs of 10+ yards allowed; George Pickens continued on his tear, catching 7 balls for 131 yards on 9 targets, while Najee Harris carried the ball 27 times for 122 yards and 2 TD’s. Seattle is on the outside looking in and will need help in Week 18 – they are 2.5-point favorites on the road against Arizona. The Steelers meanwhile need a win and a Bills loss at Miami to make the postseason; they are 4-0 to the OVER in their L4 and will face a Baltimore team that is resting their starters with the #1 seed locked up.

Broncos / Chargers

  • This was as meaningless of a game as there was in Week 17 with Jarrett Stidham facing off against Easton Stick. Both teams are out of playoff contention and without their starting QB’s; the Broncos are 8-3 to the UNDER in their L11 games and are now 2.5-point dogs on the road against the Raiders in Week 18. The Chargers meanwhile 11-3 to the UNDER in their L14 games and will face the Chiefs as 3.5-point favorites at home against a KC team that will be resting starters with the 3 seed and AFC West title locked up.

Chiefs / Bengals

  • The Chiefs righted the ship at home against the Bengals, outgaining Cincy 373-263 and running for 132 yards against a run defense that ranks 26th in rushing YPG, 31st in YPC and 26th in runs of 10+ yards. Rashee Rice continues to be one of Mahomes’ most reliable and favorite targets heading into the postseason – he caught 5 balls for 127 yards on 6 targets, while Pacheco ran for 130 yards on 18 carries. KC’s top-5 pass rush sacked Jake Browning 5 times and limited the Bengals to 100 yards and 0 points in the 2nd half of this game. KC will be resting their starters in Week 18, while the Bengals are eliminated from playoff contention and will be playing a Browns unit that will also be resting starters.

Vikings / Packers

  • Green Bay posted 470 yards of offense on a Minnesota defense that’s been playing very well over the last 2 months of the season; Jordan Love threw for 256 yards and 3 TD’s on 24-33 passing, while Aaron Jones (20 carries, 120 yards) lead a Packers rushing attack that totaled 177 yards on the ground against a Minnesota run defense that ranks 10th in the league in rushing YPG allowed and 7th in YPC. Jordan Love has taken control of a GB offense that looked lackluster over the 1H of the 2023 season; they now rank 9th in offensive efficiency, 8th in EPA/play and 10th in YPP heading into the final week of the season and are now 7-1 to the OVER in their L8 games. The Packers will host the Bears as 3-point favorites with an opportunity to clinch a playoff berth with a win, while the Vikings will head to Detroit to face a Lions’ team as a 3-point dog.

Made it here? Head over to our game and player matchup dashboards to dissect every matchup and identify the biggest mismatches to attack the betting markets or optimize your DFS lineups in Week 18.