We are here on a weekly basis to provide you with impartial matchup analysis to navigate each week and make informed, data-driven decisions with the latest information at hand. We rely on our game and player matchup analysis dashboards that provide a concise overview of a team’s strengths and weaknesses at every level of the game and produce advantage insights by identifying key mismatches in the trenches, at the skill positions and in the secondary that will have a significant impact on game results across the league each week.
Mismatches that Will Impact Game Results
DEN +2.5 vs. PIT, O/U 36.5
- Bo Nix did not post strong numbers in his NFL debut, finishing 26-42 for just 138 yards and 2 INT’s (3.3 YPA) against a Seattle defense that finished 2023 ranking 30th in defensive efficiency, 29th in EPA/play and 26th in YPP allowed. He’ll face a much stronger unit in Pittsburgh at home this week that held Atlanta in Week 1 to just 4.5 YPP and 137 yards passing and forced 3 TO’s. This was not a flash in the pan for the Steelers’ defense, which finished 2023 ranking 6th in offensive efficiency and 8th in EPA/play. Denver finished 27th in the league in both sacks and QB hits allowed in 2023 and will now face a TJ Watt-led pass rush that is more than capable of applying consistent pressure on the rookie QB.
- Najee Harris out-carried Jaylen Warren 20-2 in Arthur Smith’s debut as offensive coordinator; he ran for just 70 yards (3.5 YPC), but if he gets a similar volume of carries in Week 2, he’ll have opportunities to produce against a Denver defense that allowed Seattle to run for 146 yards in total and Kenneth Walker to go for 103 yards and 1 TD on 20 carries (5.2 YPC) in Week 1. Weakness in the run game is not a new trend in 2024; Denver finished 2023 ranking 30th in the league in rushing YPG allowed, 32nd in YPC and 24th in runs of 10+ yards.
DET -7.5 vs. TB, O/U 51.5
- The Lions took significant measures in the offseason to address concerns in the secondary by drafting corners in both the first and second rounds of the draft and being active in free agency, but they were still carved up in Week 1 by Matthew Stafford, who finished 34-49 for 317 yards passing with 1 TD and 1 INT. They will now face Baker Mayfield, who found his stride in the latter stretch of 2023 in the passing game and finished 24-30 for 289 yards and 4 TD’s in Week 1 against a Commanders’ secondary that finished 32nd in the league in passing YPG allowed in 2023 and didn’t skip a beat in their season opener. The Lions’ secondary looked slightly different in the 2023-24 postseason than it does now, but it’s worth mentioning that Mayfield threw for 349 yards, 3 TD’s and 2 INT’s on 26-41 passing in his last trip to Detroit.
- Detroit has significant continuity on the offensive side of the ball with all major skill players returning from a 2023 campaign in which they finished 3rd in offensive efficiency and YPP and 6th in EPA/play. They’ll be facing a TB secondary that wasn’t quite exposed by Jayden Daniels but finished 2023 ranking 30th in passing YPG and 31st in passes of 10+ yards. The secondary is banged up as they deal with injuries to S Antoine Winfield Jr (doubtful) and CB’s Zyon McCollum, Tykee Smith and Josh Hayes, all of whom are questionable.
CAR +5 vs LAC, O/U 39.0
- Jim Harbaugh’s offenses in both SF and at Michigan have been heavily predicated on the run game, and that did not change in his Chargers’ debut at HC in which LAC ran for 176 yards on 27 carries (6.5 YPC). The Chargers now head out to Carolina to face a Panthers’ defense that just allowed New Orleans to run for 180 yards on 37 carries (4.9 YPC) that was also bad against the run in 2023, finishing 25th in both rushing YPG and runs of 10+ yards allowed. RB’s JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards split carries 10-11 respectively, but Dobbins made the most of his touches in Week 1, finishing with 13.5 YPC and a long burst for 61 yards. Expect either or both to have similar success on the ground against a Carolina defense that allowed NO to post 379 yards of total offense and finished 2023 ranking 28th in defensive efficiency and 27th in EPA/play allowed.
ARI -1.5 vs. LAR, O/U 48
- It’s certainly worth nothing that the Rams are dealing with significant cluster injuries to their offensive line and will also be without WR Puka Nacua, but Matthew Stafford has an excellent matchup against an Arizona secondary that finished 2023 ranking 32nd in defensive efficiency, EPA/play and early down success rate and 29th in YPP allowed. Buffalo stumbled out of the gates in the first half of their home opener, but Josh Allen righted the ship and led the Bills to three TD’s on their first four drives of the second half and 352 yards of total offense, finishing 4-6 on RZ trips. He threw for just 232 yards and 2 TD’s, but did so on 18-23 passing, which equates to an efficient 10.1 YPA.
- Stafford is off a Week 1 performance against Detroit in which he finished 34-49 for 317 yards passing with 1 TD and 1 INT and lead the Rams to 5 RZ trips, though they converted just 2 into TDs. With Nacua missing significant time in this game, Stafford targeted Cooper Kupp 21 times and connected 14 times for 110 yards and a TD, but also got WR’s Tyler Johnson, Demarcus Robinson and Colby Parkinson involved for 168 yards on 19 total targets.
Side of the Week
KC Chiefs -5.5 vs CIN
- This might be considered chalky and/or an overreaction to the aberration that the Bengals put on tape at home in Week 1 against New England, but the fact of the matter is that Joe Burrow is working his way back from a torn ligament in his right wrist that anecdotally appeared to be bothering him over the course of the game and led the Bengals to just 224 yards of total offense (4.7 YPP) in Week 1.
- Tee Higgins DNP on Wednesday or Thursday of this week and looks unlikely to play in this game; it’s important to note that the Bengals will be starting a 2023 6th round pick out of Princeton named Andrei Iosvias at WR in his absence against a Chiefs’ defense that finished 2023 ranking 5th in defensive efficiency and EPA/play and 4th in YPP allowed in 2023 with the departure of Tyler Boyd in the offseason. Jamar Chase did not participate in training camp while nursing a bad attitude regarding his contract situation, and the Bengals generally lack explosive playmakers outside of he and TE Mike Gesicki on offense.
- Kansas City meanwhile addressed the issue of speed on their offense in the offseason with the additions of Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown (DNP Week 1, questionable Week 2) and managed to post 353 yards of offense (7.1 YPP) and 27 points in Week 1 on a Baltimore defense that was arguably the league’s best defensive unit in 2023 across the board.
- Worthy’s presence opened up passing lanes for Rashee Rice, who caught 7 balls for 103 yards on 9 targets. KC will be facing a Cincy defense that finished 2023 ranking 30th in EPA/play allowed, 32nd in YPP, 27th in passing YPG allowed and passes of 10+ yards allowed, 26th in rushing YPG allowed and 30th in YPC and 29th in RZ trips allowed. The Bengals lost star DT and run stopper DJ Reader and CB Chidobe Awuzie in the offseason and allowed NE to run for 170 yards on 39 carries in Week 1.
- For what it matters, the Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their L6 games including last year’s postseason.
- The Chiefs showed no signs of a Super Bowl hangover at home against Baltimore in Week 1; they have talent and speed all over the field on both sides of the ball and have an offense capable of moving the ball in multiple ways on a Cincy defense that was poor in 2023 and lost their best run stopper in the offseason to the Lions. Take Chiefs -5.5.
Player Prop of the Week
JK Dobbins O55.5 Rushing Yards – FD
It is extremely important to note that these numbers are predicted in Week 1 production from both RB’s and rushing defenses; additional context should be considered when interpreting player matchup dashboards in the early weeks of the 2024 season
- JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards moved over to LA from Baltimore in the offseason to participate in Jim Harbaugh’s offensive scheme that places significant emphasis on the running game. Dobbins finished Week 1 with 13.5 YPC on 10 carries against a Raiders’ defense that was slightly below average against the run (21st in rushing YPG, 19th in YPC) in 2023, finishing with 135 yards and a TD and a 61-yard burst.
- Dobbins and the Chargers will now face a Carolina defense that just allowed New Orleans to run for 180 yards on 37 carries (4.9 YPC) in Week 1, and was horrific against the run in in 2023, finishing 25th in both rushing YPG and runs of 10+ yards allowed.
- Dobbins finished with 3 runs of 10+ and 2 runs of 20+ in Week 1; expect him to find similar success out of the backfield against a Carolina unit that struggles to defend the run in Week 2 and take O55.5 rushing yards.
Head over to our Dashboard section of the site to comb through game matchup dashboards for every game on the board in Week 2 of the 2024 season, and browse our Player Matchup Analysis dashboards to optimize your DFS / FF lineups and target the player prop markets.
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