Around the NFL: Week 10 Preview

We are here on a weekly basis to provide you with impartial matchup analysis to navigate each week and make informed, data-driven decisions with the latest information at hand. We rely on our game and player matchup analysis dashboards that provide a concise overview of a team’s strengths and weaknesses at every level of the game and produce advantage insights by identifying key mismatches in the trenches, at the skill positions and in the secondary that will have a significant impact on game results across the league each week.

Mismatches that Will Impact Game Results in Week 10

• A lot to breakdown in the Cleveland / Baltimore matchup:
  • The Week 10 matchup between the Browns and Ravens will feature two of the top 5 defenses in the league. The Browns’ defense ranks 3rd in our defensive efficiency metric, 2nd in EPA/play and YPP allowed, 1st in 3rd down conversion rate, 1st in passing YPG allowed and passes of 10+ yards allowed, 6th in rushing YPG, 1st in RZ trips allowed per game and 4th in sacks per game. The Ravens meanwhile rank 1st in EPA/play and YPP allowed, 7th in 3rd down conversion rate, 6th in passing YPG, 1st in passing YPA, 1st in RZ TD %, 3rd in RZ trips allowed per game and 1st in sacks per game.
  • The Browns and Ravens’ defenses are tied for 10th in the league in turnovers forced per game, while Baltimore’s offense ranks 23rd in turnovers lost, while Cleveland ranks 28th in turnovers lost. Though these are extremely stout, they could give either offense a short field via the turnover department and generate offense from the defensive position.Baltimore’s offense ranks 1st in RZ trips per game and 6th in RZ TD % and will be facing a Cleveland defense that’s only deficiency on paper is their RZ TD % that ranks 28th in the league.
  • Deshaun Watson has obviously missed time, but this Cleveland offense ranks 28th in offensive efficiency, 29th in EPA/play and 27th in passing YPG allowed, facing a Baltimore secondary that ranks 6th in passing YPG allowed and 1st in YPA.
• Dak Prescott has found his stride over the L3 weeks against the Chargers (32nds in passing YPG allowed), finishing 21-30 for 272 yards and a TD, the Rams (13th in passing YPG allowed), where he threw for 304 yards and 4 TD’s on 25-31 passing and the Eagles, where he finished 29-44 for 374 yards and 3 TD’s. CeeDee Lamb caught 12 balls for 158 yards and 2 TD’s against the Rams and 11 balls for 191 yards against Philly. Dallas’ offense ranks 5th in offensive efficiency and 6th in EPA/play, facing a Giants’ defense that ranks 24th in defensive efficiency and 27th in YPP allowed.
• Tommy DeVito will get the start against Dallas’ secondary that ranks 5th in passing YPG allowed and 3rd in passes of 10+ yards allowed – he will step into the helm of a Giants’ offense that ranks 32nd in EPA/play and YPP, 31st in passing YPG and 29th in passes of 10+ yards. It’s important to remember that Tyrod Taylor and DeVito combined to finish 6-14 for 7 total passing yards two weeks ago against the Jets.
• Jared Goff is leading a Lions’ passing attack that ranks 6th in the league in passing YPG at 272 per game and 8th in YPA with an excellent matchup against a Chargers’ secondary that ranks 32nd in passing YPG allowed, 29th in YPA and 30th in passes of 10+ yards allowed. Zach Wilson averages 191 passing YPG and threw for 263 yards against the Chargers last week, while Dak Prescott (21-30, 272 yards, 1 TD), Pat Mahomes (32-42, 424 yards, 4 TD’s, 1 INT), Kirk Cousins (32-50, 367 yards, 3 TD’s, 1 INT) and Tua Tagovailoa (28-45, 466 yards, 3 TD’s, 1 INT) have all torched this secondary over the first half of the 2023 season.
• Will Levis is averaging 250 passing YPG in two starts in his rookie season and has injected life into a Tennessee passing game that on the season ranks 25th in passing YPG and 27th in passes of 10+ yards. He’ll be facing a TB secondary that’s dealing with cluster injuries at the CB position to Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean that just allowed CJ Stroud to throw for 470 yards and 5 TD’s in Week 9 and ranks 31st in passing YPG, YPA and passes of 10+ yards allowed in 2023.
• Cincy’s offense has rounded into form over the last four weeks and on the season ranks 7th in offensive efficiency and just 8th in sacks allowed per game. The Bengals will face a Houston defense that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency, 23rd in EPA/play, 24th in YPA and 23rd in sacks per game that just allowed TB to post 37 points of offense in Week 9.
• Kyler Murray looks to be returning to action for the Cardinals in Week 10 and will step into the reigns of an offense that thus far in 2023 ranks 29th in offensive efficiency, 28th in EPA/play and YPP, 32nd in passing YPG and 30th in YPA. Murray and the Cardinals will be facing an Atlanta defense that ranks 7th in defensive efficiency and YPP allowed, 9th in passing YPG allowed at just 211, 7th in YPA and 9th in passes of 10+ yards allowed. Arizona’s OC Drew Petzing has said this week that they expect Kyler to run as he normally does less than a year after he tore his ACL – if Murray’s mobility is impacted, he’s shown that he’s a different QB when that mobility is not in full force.
• Taylor Heinicke threw for 268 yards, a TD and an INT on 21-38 passing in his first start as a Falcon in Week 9 against the Vikings – he should have an opportunity to move the ball through the air in Week 10 against a Cardinals secondary that ranks 30th in YPA and 27th in passes of 10+ yards allowed in 2023.
• The Jets’ offense has been anemic under Zach Wilson, but does rank 5th in the league in YPC on the ground, which bodes well for Breece Hall and company against a Raiders’ defense that ranks 31st in rushing YPG, 28th in YPC and 32nd in runs of 10+ yards in 2023; Jahmyr Gibbs (25 carries, 152 yards, 1 TD) and Craig Reynolds (14 carries, 74 yards) combined for 226 yards on the ground two weeks ago against this defense.
• The Bills are 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS in their L5 games, but their offense and specifically their passing attack will have an opportunity to right the ship in Week 10 at home against a Denver secondary that ranks 28th in passing YPG allowed, 32nd in YPA and 23rd in passes of 10+ yards allowed. Josh Allen is leading a Buffalo passing attack that ranks 7th in passing YPG, 5th in YPA and 5th in passes of 10+ yards.

Matchups in the Trenches

• Buffalo’s OL ranks 2nd in the league in sacks allowed, facing a Denver front 7 that ranks just 26th in the league in sacks – this bodes well for Josh Allen in a matchup where Buffalo needs a win to get back on track badly and will be facing a Denver secondary that ranks 28th in passing YPG allowed, 32nd in YPA and 23rd in passes of 10+ yards allowed.
• San Fran is off the bye with an OL that ranks 4th in the league in sacks allowed, facing a Jacksonville DL that ranks 30th in the league in sacks. That said, Jacksonville ranks 3rd in the league in rushing YPG and YPC and 7th in runs of 10+ yards allowed, so this matchup could be a key deciding factor in Week 10 in Jacksonville.
• Detroit’s OL has been excellent in protecting Jared Goff in 2023, ranking 6th in sacks allowed. They’ll face a tough test against a Chargers’ front 7 that ranks 2nd in sacks per game and got to Zach Wilson 8 times in Week 9 on MNF, albeit against a Jets’ OL that ranks 30th in the league in sacks allowed with the likes of the Bears, Commanders and Giants. If Detroit’s OL can protect Goff, he will have an opportunity to pick apart a  secondary that ranks 32nd in passing YPG allowed, 29th in YPA and 30th in passes of 10+ yards allowed.
• Cincy’s OL has been an issue over the L2 seasons but has done well in protecting Joe Burrow in 2023, ranking 7th in the league in sacks allowed with an excellent matchup against a Texans’ pass rush that ranks 26th in sacks and 20th in QB hits per game.
• Sam Howell has been battered in the pocket in 2023 behind a Washington OL that only recently was overtaken by the Giants as the worst in the league in pass protection, ranking 31st in sacks allowed. They will be tasked with blocking a Seattle DL that ranks 7th in the league in sacks, 4th in sacks per game and 10th in QB hits per game.
• Denver’s offensive line has not excelled in protecting Russell Wilson and ranks 25th in the league in sacks allowed with a sub-optimal matchup against a Bills’ pass rush that ranks 5th in the league in sacks and 2nd in QB hits per game. Russell was sacked six times two weeks ago against a KC defensive line that currently ranks 2nd in the league in sacks on the season.
• Deshaun Watson looked to be back to full health in Week 9 against Arizona, but will face a difficult test against a Baltimore DL that leads the league in sacks behind a Browns’ offensive line that ranks 24th in sacks allowed and is missing their two starting T’s from opening day (Conklin tore ACL, while Jedrick Wilson sprained his MCL in Week 9). Baltimore has sacked the opposing QB at least four times in three of their L4 games.

Red Zone Matchup Analysis

• Buffalo has a significant edge on the offensive side of the ball as previously discussed in the passing game and in pass protection – they also rank 3rd in the league in RZ trips, facing a Denver defense that ranks 30th in RZ trips allowed. Buffalo is efficient when they get into the RZ, ranking 3rd in RZ TD %.
• If Dallas can shake off their Week 9 loss on the road against Philly, they have an excellent opportunity to do damage against a Giants’ defense that ranks 27th in YPP allowed and early down success rate and 24th in RZ trips allowed. Dallas ranks 6th in the league in RZ trips in total but just 29th in RZ TD % when they arrive inside their opponent’s 20-yard line.
• Among the many disadvantages Cleveland’s offense has in their matchup against Baltimore’s elite defense is their ability to move the ball into the RZ – they rank 22nd in the league in RZ trips, facing a Baltimore defense that ranks 4th in RZ trips allowed and 1st in RZ TD %.
• The Giants are going to struggle to move the ball in any fashion against Dallas in Week 10 given that Tommy DeVito is starting. On the season, they rank 24th in RZ trips and 30th in RZ TD %, and will face a Dallas defense that ranks 3rd in RZ trips allowed and 7th in EPA/play.
• Jacksonville’s offense has starpower on the offensive side of the ball in Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, etc., but on the season they rank just 29th in RZ trips and 26th in RZ TD %; they’ll be facing a 49ers defense that ranks 1st in RZ trips allowed but does struggle to keep opponents out of the end zone when they arrive in the RZ, ranking 23rd in RZ TD %.

Player Props of the Week

Jared Goff O266.5 Passing Yards – DKNG

• Goff is averaging 272 passing YPG leading a well-diversified Lions’ passing attack that includes Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Josh Reynolds, Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs and ranks 6th in passing YPG, 8th in YPA and 11th in the league in passes of 10+ yards.
• The Lions are off a bye and are healthy in this matchup – they will be facing a Chargers’ secondary that ranks 32nd in the league in passing YPG (313.5 per game), 29th in YPA and 30th in passes of 10+ yards. Top tier QB’s in 2023 that include Tua Tagovailoa (28-45, 466 yards, 3 TD’s, 1 INT), Dak Prescott (21-30, 272 yards, 1 TD), Pat Mahomes (32-42, 424 yards, 4 TD’s, 1 INT) and Kirk Cousins (32-50, 367 yards, 3 TD’s, 1 INT) have torched this secondary in 2023.
• The Lions are on the road, but will likely be playing in front of a crowd that has a significant Lions contingent in the stands and indoors at Sofi Stadium. Goff’s home/road splits are a notable objection, but the dome removes the element of weather that often has an influence on his performance.
• Goff will be operating in the pocket behind an OL that ranks 6th in sacks allowed per game. Their rushing attack has been effective this season, ranking 6th in rushing YPG, 8th in YPC and 10th in runs of 10+ yards, but they’ll be facing a Chargers’ defense that has excelled in defending the run, ranking 7th in rushing YPG and 10th in YPC.
• Goff has cleared this number in each of the L3 games, including a 353-yard performance on the road in Tampa in Week 6 against a Bucs’ secondary that is similarly bad against the pass and ranks 31st in passing YPG, YPA and passes of 10+ yards.

Will Levis O220.5 Passing Yards – DKNG

• Levis has cleared this number in his first two starts in the NFL, averaging 250 yards per game and 7.4 YPA with starts against the Falcons (9th in passing YPG allowed) and Steelers (26th in passing YPG allowed). Levis has pushed the ball down the field significantly more than Tannehill did and has made some impressive throws in his short tenure as the Titans’ starter.
• Tampa Bay was shredded last week by CJ Stroud, who finished with 470 yards and 5 TD’s. Through 9 weeks, they rank 31st in the league in passing YPG, YPA and passes of 10+ yards. CB Carlton Davis (toe) DNP on Wednesday or Thursday, which does not bode well for his availability on Sunday, while Jamel Dean (concussion) DNP on Wednesday and was a limited participant on Thursday.
• Opposing QB’s have cleared this number in five of the L6 weeks against this Bucs’ secondary and are averaging 300 passing YPG and a 69% completion percentage in that stretch.
• Tampa Bay defends the run very well, ranking 8th in rushing YPG, 7th in YPC and 3rd in runs of 10+ yards allowed, which creates a situation where Tennessee will likely want to rely more heavily on the passing game to attack a severe weakness in Tampa Bay’s defense.

UNDER OF THE WEEK

Jaguars / 49ers U45.5

• This game will feature two of the top defenses in the league by our defensive efficiency metrics – San Fran ranks 12th in our defensive efficiency metric and 10th in YPP allowed and fresh from their bye week, while Jacksonville ranks 1st in our defensive efficiency metric, 4th in EPA/play allowed, 7th in early down success rate and 5th in 3rd down conversion rate.
• On the offensive side of the ball, Jacksonville has starpower on offense with Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Calvin Ridley and company, but they rank just 23rd in EPA/play on the season, 23rd in 3rd down conversion rate, 24th in RZ trips per game and 26th in RZ TD %. They struggle to move the ball into the RZ, and when they do get there, they are significantly below average in converting trips into TD’s. They’ll be facing an SF defense that ranks 1st in RZ trips allowed per game, though they are 23rd in RZ TD %.
• Jacksonville is not an effective offense in the running game, ranking 23rd in YPC – they are facing an SF run defense that ranks 5th in rushing YPG allowed and 9th in runs of 10+ yards allowed that just added Chase Young to their DL rotation.
• San Fran has been one of the most efficient offenses in the league thus far this season, but they’ve scored just 17 points in each of the L3 games they’ve played against Cleveland (3rd in defensive efficiency), Minnesota (14th in defensive efficiency) and Cincy (9th in defensive efficiency). They’ll be getting Deebo Samuel and likely Trent Williams back this week in an offensive scheme that is heavily predicated on running the football and ranks 5th in rushing YPG, 7th in YPC and 7th in runs of 10+ yards. That said, they’ll be facing a Jags’ run defense that’s stout against it, ranking 3rd in rushing YPG and YPC allowed and 7th in runs of 10+ yards.
• Weather will be a factor in this one as there is rain in the forecast and 14 mph winds expected – take the UNDER 45.5 in this one.

Head over to our Dashboard section of the site to comb through game matchup dashboards for every game on the board in Week 10, and browse our Player Matchup Analysis dashboards to optimize your DFS / FF lineups and target the player prop markets.

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