Around the NFL: Week 12 Preview

We are here on a weekly basis to provide you with impartial matchup analysis to navigate each week and make informed, data-driven decisions with the latest information at hand. We rely on our game and player matchup analysis dashboards that provide a concise overview of a team’s strengths and weaknesses at every level of the game and produce advantage insights by identifying key mismatches in the trenches, at the skill positions and in the secondary that will have a significant impact on game results across the league each week.

Mismatches that Will Impact Game Results in Week 12

• The Browns continue to have one of the most effective rushing attacks in the league despite losing Nick Chubb early in the year – they rank 3rd in rushing YPG and 5th in runs of 10+ yards with an excellent matchup against a Broncos’ defense that ranks 32nd in rushing YPG allowed (161 per game), 32nd in YPC and 28th in runs of 10+ yards allowed. Minnesota, whose offense ranks 28th in the league in rushing YPG and 24th in YPC, racked up 175 yards on the ground against Denver last week, as Alexander Mattison and Ty Chandler combine for 154 rushing yards on just 28 carries. James Cook (12 carries, 109 yards) and Latavius Murray (9 carries, 68 yards) combined for 177 yards on just 21 carries in Week 10.
• Russell Wilson has improved in 2023 relative to the level he was playing at in 2022, but Denver ranks just 24th in passing YPG and 26th in passes of 10+ yards with a matchup against the top passing defense in the league that’s allowing just 167 yards per game and ranks 4th in YPA and 1st in passes of 10+ yards allowed. Denver also struggles to defend the QB, ranking 27th in sacks and QB hits allowed per game, now tasked with blocking a Browns’ DL that ranks 5th in sacks per game and 10th in QB hits per game.
• Buffalo heads into Philly for a matchup with the Eagles, ranking 2nd in 3rd down conversion rate, 3rd in RZ TD % and 6th in passes of 10+ yards, facing an Eagles’ defense that ranks 27th in 3rd down conversion ate allowed, 25th in RZ TD % and 29th in passes of 10+ yards allowed. Josh Allen has been inconsistent all season, but got back on track last week against a Jets’ secondary that ranks 5th in passing YPG and 2nd in passes of 10+ yards allowed, throwing for 275 yards and 3 TD’s on 20-32 passing.
• Pittsburgh has shifted the focus of their running game to a platoon between Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris, who are spearheading a rushing attack that ranks 9th in YPC and 8th in runs of 10+ yards. The Steelers will match up on Sunday against a Bengals’ defense that ranks 31st in rushing YPG allowed (139 per game), 31st in YPC and 30th in runs of 10+ yards. Baltimore ran for 157 yards on the ground in Week 11 against this defense, while the Texans ran for 188 in total in Week 10, led by Devin Singletary (30 carries, 150 yards, 1 TD).
• Will Levis impressed in his first two starts for the Titans, but came back down to earth in his next two. Tennessee’s offensive personnel is simply not good enough – they rank 25th in passing YPG, 29th in passes of 10+ yards allowed, 28th in sacks allowed per game and 32nd in QB hits allowed. Carolina’s defense ranks 31st in the league in our defensive efficiency metric, 30th in EPA/play and 29th in series conversion rate – their only bright spot is in pass defense, where they rank 4th in passing YPG allowed (192 per game), 8th in YPA and 5th in passes of 10+ yards allowed. Opposing QB’s have failed to clear 190 yards passing in each of the L4 weeks against this defense.
• CJ Stroud has been one of the most efficient and effective QB’s in the league in 2023, leading a Houston passing attack that ranks 2nd in passing YPG (297 per game), 3rd in YPA and 3rd in passes of 10+ yards. Houston will be facing a Jags’ secondary that ranks 28th in passing YPG allowed (266 per game) that was carved up by Brock Purdy (19-26, 296 yards, 3 TD’s) in Week 10. Stroud threw for 280 yards and 2 TD’s on 20-30 passing in Week 3 of the season, while upper tier QB’s including Pat Mahomes (29-41, 305 yards, 2 TD’s, 1 INT), Josh Allen (27-40, 359 yards, 2 TD’s, 1 INT) have had similar success through the air.

Matchups in the Trenches

• The Chargers’ have excelled in protecting Justin Herbert in 2023, ranking 9th in sacks allowed, but will face a tough test in Week 12 against a Baltimore defense that leads the league in sacks and ranks 5th in QB hits per game. Baltimore has sacked the opposing QB at least four times in 5 of their L6 games.
• Denver’s struggles on the OL from 2022 have continued to be an issue in 2023, as the unit ranks 27th in the league in sacks allowed with a difficult matchup against Cleveland’s 6th ranked pass rush in Week 12. Cleveland should have plenty of opportunities to apply pressure on Wilson in the pocket throughout the course of this game.
• The Raiders’ OL ranks 22nd in sacks allowed, facing Chris Jones and a KC DL that ranks 3rd in the league in sacks and got to Jalen Hurts 5 times on MNF against a traditionally stout Eagles OL.

Red Zone Matchup Analysis

• Baltimore leads the league in RZ trips and will be hosting a Chargers’ defense that ranks 27th in RZ trips allowed. Baltimore also ranks 4th in RZ TD %, meaning that they not only move the ball into the red zone at a high clip, but convert their RZ trips into TD’s at a significantly above average rate. Mark Andrews lead the Ravens in RZ targets and receptions, but his season-ending injury will open up opportunities for other WR’s and Isaiah Likely. Lamar and Gus Edwards lead Baltimore in RZ carries per game.
• Philly’s offense ranks 5th in the league in RZ trips with a matchup against a Buffalo defense that ranks 21st in the league in RZ trips allowed. The Eagles rank 9th in RZ TD %, while Jalen Hurts ranks 11th in the league in RZ carries per game.
• Denver has improved significantly under Sean Payton on the offensive side of the ball and ranks 7th in RZ trips on the season, but they’ll be facing a Cleveland defense that has allowed opponents to reach the RZ just 21 times in 11 games.
• Cincy’s offensive numbers are influenced by how poorly they played the first month of the season as Burrow recovered from a calf injury, but they’ll now be facing a Pittsburgh defense that ranks 10th in RZ trips allowed and 4th in RZ TD %.

Player Props of the Week

Jaylen Warren O51.5 Rushing Yards – FD

• Jaylen Warren has been a more effective rusher than Najee Harris in this offense and has worked his way into a platoon role at the RB position with Najee Harris. Harris refused to speak with reporters on Friday after Pittsburgh fired OC Matt Canada and promoted RB coach Eddie Faulkner into the interim position, which has caused some speculation that Warren could be in line for more touches on Sunday against Cincy.
• Speculation aside, Pittsburgh ranks 13th in the league in rushing YPG, 9th in YPC and 8th in runs of 10+ yards with an excellent matchup against a Bengals’ defense that ranks 31st in rushing YPG, 31st in YPC and 30th in runs of 10+ yards. Baltimore just ran for a combined 157 on Cincy last week, while Devin Singletary (30 carries, 150 yards, 1 TD) lead the way for a Houston rushing attack that posted 188 yards on the ground on Cincy in Week 10.
• Warren has cleared this number by a wide margin in each of the L3 weeks and has an excellent opportunity to do so against a Cincy run defense that is allowing opponents to go for nearly 139 yards on average on a weekly basis. Take Warren O51.5 rushing yards.

CJ Stroud O272.5 Passing Yards – FD

• Stroud leads the league in passing YPG in 2023 in a Houston offense that ranks 2nd in passing YPG (297 per game), 3rd in YPA and 3rd in passes of 10+ yards. Houston will be facing a Jags’ secondary that ranks 28th in passing YPG allowed (266 per game) that was carved up by Brock Purdy (19-26, 296 yards, 3 TD’s) in Week 10. Stroud threw for 280 yards and 2 TD’s on 20-30 passing in Week 3 of the season, while upper tier QB’s including Pat Mahomes (29-41, 305 yards, 2 TD’s, 1 INT), Josh Allen (27-40, 359 yards, 2 TD’s, 1 INT) have had similar success through the air.
• Stroud has cleared this number in each of the L3 games in a stretch where he is averaging over 387 passing YPG. Jacksonville has been torched in the passing game against effective QB’s and will be without their top corner in Tyson Campbell this week.
• This is a premium number for Stroud, but he has an excellent matchup against a bottom 5 passing defense that will be without its top corner and a bet on the likely Rookie of the Year winner. Take Stroud O272.5 passing yards.

UNDER OF THE WEEK

Bengals / Steelers UNDER 36.5

• This matchup will feature one of the most impotent offenses in the league in Pittsburgh and a Cincy offense that just lost its starting QB and will now turn to Jake Browning. Pittsburgh ranks 24th in EPA/play, 26th in YPP, 27th in early down success rate, 31st in passing YPG, 30th in passes of 10+ yards, 32nd in RZ trips per game and 25th in RZ TD %.
• Jake Browning has thrown just 15 passes in his NFL career – he finished 8-14 for 68 yards in relief of Joe Burrow, leading the Bengals to four punts, a FG and a garbage time TD as Cincy was down 34-13 with under three minutes left in regulation.
• Pittsburgh does not have the pass rush it has the last 2-3 seasons, but ranks 7th in the league in QB hits and should be able to generate some pressure against a Cincy OL that ranks 22nd in sacks allowed per game and 24th in QB hits allowed. The Steelers have been suspect in defending the pass, but they rank 4th in defensive efficiency, 9th in series conversion rate, 4th in RZ TD % and 2nd in turnovers forced per game, which all triangulates back to the point that Jake Browning is going to have a difficult time sustaining offense against this unit.
• The biggest wild card in this game is the way Pittsburgh’s offensive output will change in Matt Canada’s absence after he was fired on Tuesday of this week – he is the obvious scapegoat for Pittsburgh’s offensive struggles, but Kenny Pickett should not be excused by any means for his poor play and what actually happens when the ball is snapped.
• Pittsburgh is 8-2 to the UNDER with an average total scoring output of 36.5, while Cincy will need to adjust to a new realty that does not include Joe Burrow under center for the rest of the season.
• There is light to moderate rain and 10-12 MPH winds in the forecast in Cincy tomorrow afternoon, which has potential to have an impact in the passing game if wind gusts strengthen. Take the UNDER 36.5 in this one.

Model Picks

Our models are 23-11 (67.6%) in 2023 and have six picks for the Sunday slate after cashing the OVER in Jets / Dolphins on the inaugural Black Friday game. Head over to the About us section to read up on the models and methodology.

Head over to our Dashboard section of the site to comb through game matchup dashboards for every game on the board in Week 12, and browse our Player Matchup Analysis dashboards to optimize your DFS / FF lineups and target the player prop markets.

Agree or disagree with anything we’ve discussed? Give us a follow on X and let us know!