Around the NFL: Week 4 Recap

Week 4 Takeaways and Implications for Week 5

Concise game recaps from Week 4 below that provide you with the information that matters to attack Week 5. Head over to our game matchup dashboards to see how every team matchups up on either side of the ball this week as every team continues to reveal who they are in 2023. Once you digest takeaways from the Week 4, head over to our dashboard section to break down the Week 5 board.

Lions / Packers

  • The Lions throttle bodied the Packers in the first half of this TNF matchup, bouncing back from an early INT on the first drive to post points on 5 of their next 6 drives of the first half to take a 27-3 lead into halftime. Once again, Jordan Love was brutal in the first half, leading the Packers to 32 total yards on 23 plays. Detroit outgained Green Bay by a margin of 401-230 as the Packers racked up some yardage in the second half in garbage time, but Green Bay wasn’t ever really in this game.
  • The Packers posted just 27 yards on the ground on 12 attempts, allowed 5 sacks, logged two turnovers and finished with just 4.3 yards per play. Through 4 weeks, Green Bay ranks 26th in 1Q point differential and 30th in 1H point differential, while they rank 2nd in 2H point differential.
  • Detroit’s defense is showing well on paper through the first four weeks of the season, as they rank 5th in EPA/play, 4th in YPP allowed, 9th in 3rd down conversion rate, 1st in rushing YPG allowed and 6th in sacks.
  • Much to the dismay of many people in the fantasy football community, David Montgomery rushed 32 times for 121 yards and 3 TD’s, while Jahmyr Gibbs got only 8 touches for 30 yards.
  • The Lions will host Carolina as a 9-point favorite, while the Packers are 2-point favorites on the road against the Raiders.

Jaguars / Falcons

  • Desmond Ridder turned in another really bad performance at QB for the Falcons. Ridder led Atlanta to four punts and threw two INT’s in the first half, one of which was a house call for the Jags, who took a 17-0 lead into halftime. The Falcons posted just 77 yards of offense on 28 plays in the first half.
  • Trevor Lawrence was steady, logging no turnovers and finishing with 207 yards on 23-30 passing and 1 TD. Christian Kirk led the Jags in receptions, yards and targets, finishing with 8 catches for 84 yards on 12 targets.
  • Bijan Robinson got 14 of Atlanta’s 21 designed runs, going for 105 yards (7.5 YPC). He also caught 5 balls for 32 yards on 5 targets.
  • Jacksonville has yet to really find their stride on offense, as they are 26th in offensive efficiency, 29th in EPA/play, 28th in 3rd down conversion rate, 26th in YPC and 25th in runs of 10+ yards through 4 weeks. They are also not getting into the red zone at a high clip, ranking 26th in RZ trips per game and RZ TD conversion rate.
  • The Jags improved to 2-2 and head to Buffalo as 6-point dogs on Sunday, while the Falcons are 1-point favorites at home against the Texans.

Bills / Dolphins

  • There’s a saying in the NFL that you’re never as good as you look when you win and never as bad as you look when you lose, which applies to the Dolphins in Week 4 fresh off dropping a 70-burger on the Broncos in Week 3. The Bills roasted Miami’s defense early and often in this one, finishing with 414 total yards and finishing 5-6 in RZ efficiency. The Bills scored tuddys on three of their first four drives of the first half and entered halftime with a 31-14 lead.
  • Miami struck back on the first drive of the second half to cut the lead to 31-20, but the Bills continued to press down on the throttle with an INT and two TD’s to take a 48-20 lead late in the 3rd quarter.
  • Josh Allen exposed some weaknesses on the Miami defense, finishing 21-25 for 320 yards and 4 TD’s (12.8 YPA), while Stefon Diggs caught 6 balls for 120 yards and 3 TD’s on 7 targets. The Dolphins head into Week 5 ranking 29th in EPA/play, 26th in series conversion rate, 29th in YPP, 25th in passing YPG allowed, 23rd in YPC allowed, 30th in RZ trips allowed per game and 27th in RZ TD % allowed.
  • The Bills lost their best corner in Tre’Davious White to a torn Achilles.
  • Buffalo is a 6-point favorite at home against the Jags this week, while the Dolphins will have an opportunity to right the ship against a bad Giants’ defense in Week 5 as a 9.5-point favorite at home.

Bears / Broncos

  • This was a matchup of two really bad defenses, and not surprisingly, we saw 59 total points scored and 782 yards of total offense. The Broncos battled back from a 28-7 deficit in the 3rd quarter and benefitted from two critical turnovers from Justin Fields, returning a fumble for a TD and logging an INT to ice the game after taking a 31-28 lead on a 51-yard field goal with 1:46 to go in regulation.
  • Chicago’s woes across the board are well-documented here and across the rest of the internet, but what’s interesting is that Denver might have an even worst defense – through 4 weeks, they rank 32nd in our defensive efficiency metric, series conversion rate, YPP allowed, passing YPA and rushing YPG, 31st in EPA/play, YPC allowed and runs of 10+ yards. They have zero redeeming qualities on defense, allowing Chicago to post 471 yards of total offense and Justin Fields to finish 28-35 for 335 yards, 4 TD’s and 1 INT. Chicago also posted 171 yards on the ground on 31 carries (5.5 YPC).
  • Somebody had to win this game and it turned out to be the Broncos, but Sean Payton was none too pleased after the game nonetheless: “There’ll be some tough tape tomorrow. I don’t want to sugarcoat anything. We’re gonna play a lot better teams on our schedule. And no disrespect to Chicago and Matt (Eberflus) and what they’re trying to do. I’m sure the feeling’s the same here. But I think the win was important for the group.”
  • The Broncos are 2-point favorites at home against the Jets, who saw an improved Zach Wilson at QB on Monday night. The Bears are 7-point dogs on a short week on the road against the Commanders on Thursday night, who just posted 365 yards of offense on Philly’s defense and nearly won the game outright as an 8.5-point underdog.

Browns / Ravens

  • Cleveland started 5th-round rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson at QB with Deshaun Watson dealing with a shoulder injury and mustered just 166 yards of total offense, 53 of which game on a meaningless final drive, which means in non-garbage time they posted 113 yards of offense on 59 snaps. Thompson was sacked 4 times and threw 3 INT’s, finishing with just 121 yards on 19-36 passing.
  • Cleveland’s vaunted defense, which ranked 1st in the league in nearly every statistic our dashboards track, could not contain Lamar Jackson for four quarters – Jackson finished 15-19 passing for 186 yards and 2 TD’s, and ran 9 times for 27 yards and another 2 TD’s on the ground.
  • Mark Andrews led the Baltimore passing game, catching 5 balls for 80 yards and 2 TD’s on 5 targets with Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham Jr both out.
  • Baltimore was missing several starters, including Marcus Williams and two OLB’s, but managed to make things extremely difficult for the rookie in DTR. Through 4 weeks, they rank 4th in our defensive efficiency rating, 3rd in EPA/play, 1st in YPP allowed, 7th in passing YPG, 1st in YPA, 7th in rushing YPG allowed, 5th in RZ trips per game and 3rd in sacks, all while they await the return of CB Marlon Humphrey.
  • The Ravens are 4.5-point road favorites against Pittsburgh, while the Browns head into the bye at 2-2 and will look to get Deshaun Watson healthy.

Eagles / Commanders

  • Washington played Philly extremely tough as an 8.5-point dog on the road, giving themselves an opportunity to go for 2 late in regulation to steal a divisional win. They ultimately elected to take the XP, couldn’t post points on the first possession of OT and surrendered a 54-yard field goal to take the loss.
  • Sam Howell was very good in this game, leading the Commanders to 365 yards of total offense and finishing 29-41 for 290 yards and 1 TD with another 40 yards on the ground on 6 scrambles. Washington finished 4-5 on RZ TD efficiency, logged zero turnovers and finished 8-17 on 3rd down.
  • Jalen Hurts played very well, finishing 25-37 for 319 yards and 2 TD’s, including what should have been the dagger to AJ Brown on a 28-yard TD with 1:43 left in regulation. Brown finished with 9 catches for 175 yards and 2 TD’s, including a 59-yard catch and run in the second half. DeVonta Smith caught 7 balls for 78 yards on 9 targets.
  • Philly has been exposed in the passing game over the course of this season, ranking 28th in passing YPG allowed and passes of 10+ yards through 4 weeks.
  • The Commanders are 7-point favorites at home on TNF against a really bad Bears defense, while the Eagles head out to LA as 4.5-point road favorites against a Rams’ offense that’s ranked 2nd in the league in passing YPG and passes of 10+ yards and 8th in EPA/play.

Titans / Bengals

  • Cincy’s offensive woes persisted in this game, as the Bengals managed just 211 yards of offense (4.1 YPP) and 139 yards through the air. Burrow finished 20-30 for 165 yards with a long completion of 17 yards to Jamar Chase, who caught 7 balls for 73 yards on 9 targets. After four weeks, Cincy ranks 23rd in EPA/play, 32nd in YPP, 25th in 3rd down conversion rate, 31st in passing YPG, 32nd in YPA, 27th in passes of 10+ yards and 31st in rushing YPG.
  • The Bengals strung together an 11-play, 72-yard drive that ended in a field goal to start the game, but managed just 55 yards of offense 10 plays thereafter, entering halftime down 24-3. Burrow lost a fumble on Cincy’s opening possession of the 2nd half, led a 3-and-out and a turnover on downs on their only 3 possessions of the 2nd half.
  • Credit to Tennessee, who climbed back to 2-2 with a rout of a win at home where they posted 400 yards of total offense and 173 yards on the ground. Derrick Henry carried the ball 22 times for 122 yards and 1 TD against a Cincy defense that ranks 31st in rushing YPG, 29th in YPC and 32nd in runs of 10+ yards allowed.
  • Tee Higgins did not play in the second half due to injured ribs.
  • Cincy heads out to Arizona as 3-point favorites against a Cardinals’ offense that ranks 9th in YPP and can run the ball, ranking 4th in rushing YPG, 2nd in YPC and 6th in runs of 10+ yards. The Titans are 1.5-point underdogs on the road against Indy.

Colts / Rams

  • Indy battled back in this one from a 23-8 deficit in the 4th quarter to force overtime, but Matthew Stafford turned in another strong performance against a suspect Indy secondary and sank them in OT. Stafford led the Rams’ offense to 467 yards in total, finishing 27-40 for 319 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, including the game-winning tuddy to Puka Nacua in OT.
  • Puka Nacua returned to form in Week 4, catching 9 balls for 163 yards and 1 TD on 10 targets – he continues to be Stafford’s favorite target in Cooper Kupp’s absence.
  • The Rams posted 164 yards on the ground against an Indy defense that now ranks 23rd in the league in rushing YPG allowed. Kyren Williams led the way for the Rams, rushing for 103 yards and 2 TD’s on 25 carries.
  • Anthony Richardson struggled in the box score, finishing just 11-25 for 200 yards and 2 TD’s through the air, but he engineered two scoring drives in the fourth quarter to tie the game and force OT and carried the ball 10 times for 56 yards and a TD.
  • Stafford was dealing with a hip injury throughout the second half, which will be something to keep an eye on on a go-forward basis. The Rams are 4.5-point underdogs at home against the 4-0 Eagles, while the Colts are 1.5-point favorites at home against the 2-2 Titans.

Saints / Buccaneers

  • Baker Mayfield’s mid-career renaissance continues as he led the Bucs to a 26-9 win on the road over the Saints and an injured Derek Carr. The Bucs outgained the Saints in this one by a margin of 353-197, finishing 8-15 on 3rd down and 3-4 on trips to the RZ. Mayfield finished an efficient 25-32 for 246 yards, 3 TD’s and 1 INT against a Saints’ defense that’s ranked 6th in defensive efficiency, 7th in YPP allowed, 8th in passing YPG and 10th in rushing YPG allowed heading into Week 4.
  • After leading an 11-play, 56-yard drive that yielded a field goal to open the game, Derek Carr and the Saints offense managed just 52 yards, 3 punts and a fumble on their 19 next plays to end the first half.
  • The Saints logged three turnovers and managed just 70 yards on the ground on 19 carries (3.7 YPC) against TB’s high-powered run defense. Alvin Kamara rushed for 51 yards on 11 carries and caught another 13 balls for 33 yards on 14 targets. Derek Carr finished 23-37 for 127 yards (3.4 YPA).
  • Chris Godwin caught 8 balls for 114 yards on 11 targets, while Mike Evans tweaked his hamstring and caught just 3 balls for 40 yards on 3 targets.
  • The Saints are 1.5-point underdogs on the road in New England, while the Bucs head into their bye at 2-2.

Panthers / Vikings

  • Minnesota has been careless with the football all season and spotted Carolina a 7-0 lead on a pick-6 on their first drive of the game. Minnesota finished with just 265 yards of total offense, while Kirk Cousin logged just 139 yards in total through the air on 12-19 passing with 2 TD’s and 2 INT’s.
  • The Panthers had a first and goal at Minnesota’s 9-yard line at the 2-minute warning in the 4th quarter with an opportunity to tie the game, but turned the ball over on downs as Bryce Young took two sacks to close this game out.
  • Minnesota avoided going 0-3 but did not impress at all in this one, finishing 1-8 on 3rd down with 2 turnovers and 2 trips to the RZ. Their defense bailed them out in a game where they lost the turnover battle and the time of possession battle by a margin of 38:29 – 21:31, turning a Bryce Young fumble into a TD late in the 3rd quarter to take a 14-13 lead.
  • A win is a win in the NFL, but the Vikings head into Week 5 as 5.5-point underdogs against the Chiefs, while the Panthers head to Detroit as 9-point road dogs.

Texans / Steelers

  • The Texans completely dominated the Steelers from start to finish in this game, outgaining Pittsburgh by a margin of 451-225. CJ Stroud continues an excellent start to his NFL career for the Texans, finishing 16-30 for 306 yards (10.1 YPA) and 2 TD’s in a game where he was missing both starting tackles against the league’s top-ranked pass rush led by TJ Watt.
  • People may start to group Kenny Pickett in the same category as Zach Wilson in the tier of extremely ineffective NFL quarterbacks. Pickett threw an INT on Pittsburgh’s first drive and left the game in the 3rd quarter with an injury. Pickett finished 15-23 for 114 yards and 1 INT before he left the game. The Steelers logged 63 yards of offense 24 plays in the first half and did not enter Houston territory until the first drive of the second half.
  • Nico Collins continues to dominate alongside Stroud, finishing with 7 catches for 168 yards and 2 TD’s on 9 targets. Stroud is leading a Houston offense that ranks 3rd in the league in passing YPG, YPA and passes of 10+ yards behind a completely hodge podge offensive line.
  • Pittsburgh has zero offensive identify – they rank 25th in offensive efficiency, 31st in EPA/play, 26th in YPP, 32nd in early down success rate, 24th in passing YPG, 29th in rushing YPG and 32nd in RZ trips per game.
  • The Steelers are 4.5-point underdogs at home against the 3-1 Ravens, who have a top 10 defense through four weeks. The Texans are 1-point underdogs on the road in Atlanta with a matchup against a significantly improved secondary that ranks 3rd in passing YPG allowed, 7th in YPA and 6th in passes of 10+ yards allowed in 2023.

Chargers / Raiders

  • The Chargers jumped out to a 24-7 lead at halftime against the Raiders but almost found a way to squander another win late in the 4th quarter when they turned the ball over on downs at their own 35-yard line on a failed QB sneak with 3:34 to go. Aidan O’Connell had the Raiders at the LAC 3-yard line with 2:38 to go and a 1st and goal opportunity, but threw an INT that sealed the win for the Chargers.
  • Justin Herbert played the second half with a splint after his finger got caught in a facemask on an INT throw. He finished just 13-24 for 167 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Take out the 51-yard completion to Joshua Palmer at the 2-minute warning on 3rd and 10 and Herbert finished 12-23 for 111 yards.
  • The Raiders lost the turnover battle with an INT and 2 fumbles and consequently lost the game. Aidan O’Connell was sacked 7 times, including 6 by Khalil Mack, and finished just 24-39 for 238 yards and 1 INT, leading LV to just 264 yards of total offense (3.8 YPP).
  • Keenan Allen was held in check in this game after ridiculous target and catch numbers through 3 weeks, catching just 3 balls for 32 yards and 1 TD on 5 targets – LAC’s offense is likely going to go through an adjustment period after losing Mike Williams in Week 3.
  • The Chargers head into their bye, which means they won’t have an opportunity to blow another game late in Week 5. The Raiders are 2-point underdogs at home on MNF against the Packers.

Cowboys / Patriots

  • Mac Jones was exposed in a very public setting in the 4:25 slot on the road in Dallas on Sunday, finishing just 12-21 for 150 yards, 2 INT’s and a fumble. He spotted Dallas 14 points with a fumble that was returned for a TD deep in his own territory and an INT that was returned to the house on a play where he threw the ball across the field nearly parallel to the goal line. He was benched late in the 3rd quarter with the Pats down 31-3.
  • Dallas’ offense had the good fortune of being spotted 14 points in the first half and a possession that started at their own 48-yard line after Mac Jones threw an INT on NE’s first possession of the second half.
  • The Cowboys as a result cruised to a 38-3 victory in which they outgained NE by a margin of 377-253. They held NE to 200 yards passing and just 53 yards on the ground (2.3 YPC).
  • Dallas will have a much more difficult test on the road as 3.5-point underdogs against the 49ers on SNF, while the Patriots return home as 1.5-point favorites against the Saints.

49ers / Cardinals

  • SF rolled the Cardinals at home, rushing for 124 yards on the ground and finishing 5-5 on trips to the RZ. Brock Purdy was an efficient 20-21 for 283 yards and 1 TD, while Christian McCaffrey ran for 106 yards and 3 TD’s on 20 carries and caught another 7 balls for 71 yards and 1 TD.
  • Arizona managed to hang in this game late into the 3rd quarter after posting an 11-play, 99-yard TD drive to claw back to 21-16 on their first drive of the second half, but SF clamped down and posted TD’s of their own on their next two possessions to roll to a 35-16 win.
  • Josh Dobbs has been very respectable in his time as ARI’s starter, finishing 28-41 for 265 yards and 2 TD’s against one of the best defenses in the league.
  • The 49ers are simply a well-oiled machine and generally play mistake-free football. They rank 3rd in offensive efficiency, 1st in EPA/play and series conversion rate, 2nd in YPP, 3rd in early down success rate, 9th in passing YPG, 3rd in rushing YPG, 3rd in RZ trips per game and 8th in sacks allowed.
  • Arizona is a 3-point underdog at home against the Bengals and should be considered a live dog against an offense that has no juice and struggles to defend the run. The 49ers are 3.5-point favorites at home against Dallas in a rematch of the NFC Divisional Round where Ezekiel Elliot played his final snap with the Cowboys at center.

Jets / Chiefs

  • A questionable pass interference call late in the 4th quarter that negated a Jets’ INT was the story in this one, as the INT would have given the Jets the ball at their own 40-yard line, down 3 points, with 4 minutes to go. The Jets battled back after falling down 17-0 early, but there are no moral victories in the NFL.
  • Zach Wilson had one of his best games as a pro in a primetime spot, finishing 28-39 for 245 yards and 2 TD’s, leading the Jets to 336 yards of total offense against a Chiefs defense that has graded relatively well on paper through 4 weeks, ranking 5th in defensive efficiency, 6th in EPA/play, 9th in YPP, 7th in passing YPG and 10th in RZ trips allowed per game.
  • Pat Mahomes as not particularly sharp in this one against a really sharp Jets’ defense, finishing 18-30 for 203 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT’s. He scrambled for 24 yards late on a 3rd and 20+ but got bailed out by the refs on his 3rd INT of the night. Isiah Pacheco ran 20 times for 115 yards (5.8 YPC) and 1 TD.
  • The Jets fall to 1-3 while the Chiefs improve to 3-1. The Chiefs are 5.5-point favorites on the road in Minnesota this weekend, while the Jets are 2-point underdogs on the road in Denver in a game where Zach Wilson should be able to duplicate or improve on his success in Week 4 against one of the worst defenses in the league.

Giants / Seahawks

  • The Seahawks dominated the Giants on a night where their passing attack was not particularly sharp and they posted only 281 yards of total offense. Seattle’s defense held NYG to 248 yards of total offense (3.4 YPP) and forced 3 TO’s, one of which was an INT returned to the house by rookie Devon Witherspoon.
  • The Seahawks sacked Daniel Jones 11 times. Jones finished 27-34 for 203 yards and 2 INT’s, adding 66 yards on the ground on 10 carries.
  • The Giants put together a promising drive to start the game that sputtered at Seattle’s 27-yard line on a failed QB sneak attempt. They posted just one field goal in the first half and entered the break trailing 14-3, a deficit that was widened when Daniel Jones threw a pick 6 on NY’s second possession of the 2nd half. Jones threw 2 INT’s, led two drives that ended in punts and a drive that ended on a turnover on downs in the 2nd half.
  • Geno Smith left the game with an injury to his right ankle and did not return. Kenneth Walker III ran for 79 yards and 1 TD on 17 carries (4.6 YPC) against a Giants’ defense ranks 27th in the league in rushing YPG through 4 weeks.
  • The Giants are 9.5-point favorites on the road in Miami this weekend, while the Seahawks head into the bye week at 3-1.

Made it here? Head over to our game and player matchup dashboards to dissect every matchup and identify the biggest mismatches to attack the betting markets or optimize your DFS and fantasy football lineups in Week 5.